American Express One and Done Picks: Avoid the Chalk (2026)
Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10,000,000 in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
If you are researching American Express One and Done picks this week and trying to avoid an early-season mistake, this is a good place to start.
The American Express has a total purse of $9.2 million, with $1.58 million going to first place. That puts it firmly in the second tier of PGA Tour payouts.
In Golf One and Done pools, that means the goal is not just to pick a golfer who can win. It is to pick a golfer you can use now without wishing you had saved him when the schedule reaches its biggest money events.
The Shortcut to Smarter Golf One and Done Picks
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Optimizer pulls odds, performance data, projected pick popularity, and season-planning context into one place, so you can make a confident pick without guessing or juggling tabs.
More importantly, it accounts for the part that trips most people up early in the season: deciding whether a golfer is actually worth using now or should be saved for a higher-leverage spot later.
That “should I pick or save” question is exactly where most One and Done mistakes are made.
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American Express Odds to Win
Here are the top golfers by outright win odds for the American Express as of Tuesday morning, January 20:
1. Scottie Scheffler +275
2. Ben Griffin +1800
3. Russell Henley +2000
4. Robert MacIntyre +2200
5. Ludvig Aberg +2200
6. Si Woo Kim +2200
7. Sam Burns +2500
Scottie Scheffler headlines the field in his season debut and sits alone at the top of the odds board. He skipped this event last year but finished inside the top 25 in each of his previous three appearances.
Behind him, the board flattens out quickly. Griffin, Henley, MacIntyre, Aberg, and Kim all sit in a relatively tight range, which is often a signal that future value should matter more in One and Done pools than small odds gaps.
Past winners are also present in the field. Sepp Straka returns after winning last year, while Nick Dunlap, the 2024 champion, is also back after finishing 24th here last season.
American Express One and Done: Projected Popularity
Popularity is not the only thing that matters, but it plays a real role in larger One and Done pools.
Here are the golfers projected to be the most popular American Express picks this week, according to the PoolGenius Golf One and Done Tool:
1. Ben Griffin (about 8 to 14 percent)
2. Patrick Cantlay (about 8 to 14 percent)
3. Sam Burns (about 8 to 14 percent)
4. Si Woo Kim (about 8 to 14 percent)
5. Sepp Straka (about 4 to 7 percent)
6. Russell Henley (about 4 to 7 percent)
Scheffler is expected to come in lower than you might expect for a heavy favorite, largely because many players are choosing to save him for higher-purse events later in the season.
As usual, there is significant overlap between the golfers near the top of the odds board and those projected to be popular picks. That overlap is where many One and Done decisions go wrong.
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Best American Express Golf One and Done Picks
This is where players tend to overthink things. The best pick is not necessarily the golfer with the shortest odds.
Should You Take the Chalk?
Scheffler, Griffin, Henley, and MacIntyre all look great on paper, but they are also golfers you are very likely to want later when purses are significantly more, and each pick carries more leverage.
In a standard One and Done season, you are making roughly 31 picks, and more than half of the remaining tournaments pay more than the American Express. Even if one of these top names is a strong win candidate this week, you still have to ask whether this is the right time to spend that asset.
In many pool setups, it is not.
Four Other Picks Worth Considering
If you are looking for picks with upside but better future value savings, these golfers make more sense in this spot.
1. Sepp Straka: PoolGenius ranks him 21st overall, which puts him closer to the ideal range for a second-tier purse event. His recent win here boosts confidence, though it also increases popularity.
2. Si Woo Kim: He is tied for the third-best odds to win, ranked 21st overall, and does not carry the same must-save pressure as the very top names.
3. Patrick Cantlay: PoolGenius ranks him 19th overall, and he combines solid win equity with strong course history, including a fifth-place finish here last year and multiple top-10 results over the past decade.
4. More future value savings: If you want to preserve even more future value, golfers further down the rankings who are still viable include Harry Hall, Jason Day, and Taylor Pendrith.
If you want this sorted automatically based on your pool size, payout structure, and risk tolerance, the PoolGenius tool will do it in seconds.
Get Your American Express Pick and Season Plan in One Place
The real edge in Golf One and Done is not just picking good golfers. It is picking the right golfers at the right time.
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool customizes pick grades to your exact pool format and pairs them with a season planner that shows what you are giving up when you use a golfer now instead of saving him for later.
It is the fastest way to make a confident pick this week and avoid regret when the biggest purses arrive.