Top One and Done Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational (2026)

by PoolGenius (PoolGenius) Last Updated 2026-03-03 20:06:29

Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10 million in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the highest leverage weeks of the One and Done season. With a $20 million purse and $4 million going to the winner, this is not a week you want to get wrong in either direction. Use the wrong golfer, and you burn a top asset at a premium event. Play it too cute, and you miss a legitimate win opportunity at one of the biggest purses on the calendar.

Here is how to think through it.

Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Picks Tool

Before we get into the picks, if you want this process done for your specific pool entry in about 60 seconds, the PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool is the way to go.

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Top Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds To Win

Here are the top outright win odds heading into the week:

Scottie Scheffler +300
Rory McIlroy +900
Tommy Fleetwood +1600
Xander Schauffele +2000
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Collin Morikawa +2500
Russell Henley +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Robert MacIntyre +3300
Ludvig Aberg +3300

Arnold Palmer Invitational Projected Pick Popularity

Here is how ownership is shaping up according to PoolGenius projections:

Scottie Scheffler
Matt Fitzpatrick
Rory McIlroy
Tommy Fleetwood
Xander Schauffele

This group is who we expect to be the five most popular picks. Notice that Scheffler and McIlroy make up two of the top three, which presents an interesting decision for your One and Done picks this week.

Should you go with the chalky picks, knowing they will be popular? Or is this a chance to pivot to a leverage pick and save the top two golfers for later?

5 Arnold Palmer One and Done Picks Worth Considering

Here are five Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done picks to consider, along with the pros and cons of each.

1. Scottie Scheffler

Two-time winner at Bay Hill, best odds in the field at +300, and a ball-striking profile that fits this course as well as anywhere on Tour. At a $4 million first prize event, the purse justifies spending on him.

The one consideration is that high projected ownership means a big chunk of your pool is going the same direction. In a smaller pool, that is fine. In a larger pool, it is worth thinking about whether you want to hold him for a spot later in the season, where fewer people have him available.

2. Rory McIlroy

The same logic applies to McIlory, who is second on the odds board at +900. The purse is real, the course fit is real, and this is a legitimate deployment week.

He is projected to be among the highest-picked players in this event as well. Between the two of them, Scheffler and McIlroy alone account for nearly 25% of projected picks this week.

3. Matt Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick is the most interesting case on the board this week. The course fit is legitimate; he is an accurate driver; his iron play is trending up; and he has real history at Bay Hill.

The issue is that his projected ownership is barely any less than Scheffler’s. However, you could be saving some future value by using Fitzpatrick here, since he ranks around eighth overall, and this is one of the top purse events on the calendar.

4. Xander Schauffele

Schauffele is projected at a lower pick rate than the top three despite sitting fourth in outright odds. His course history at Bay Hill is not as strong as some of the other names here, but he is in decent form, and the odds reflect real win equity.

5. Russell Henley

Henley is one of the more interesting leverage plays on the board. He won here last year and has finished top five in two of the last three editions, so the course history is as good as anyone in the field.

The game theory argument is straightforward: with so many high-profile names drawing attention at the top of the board, Henley could easily get lost in the shuffle and come in well under 5% owned. At +2800 with that kind of track record at Bay Hill, that is a significant ownership gap relative to his actual win equity.

What’s the Best Arnold Palmer Invitational Pick for Your Entry?

There is no universal right answer this week.

The correct pick for a 20-person pool looks completely different from the correct pick in a 500-person pool with a winner-take-all payout. Segment prizes, your current standings, and which golfers you have already used all factor in as well.

The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool accounts for all of it and delivers a pick grade specific to your pool entry. It is the fastest way to cut through the noise and make a confident decision before Thursday.

Try it out ahead of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.