AT&T Pebble Beach One and Done Picks: Save Rory & Scottie? (2026)
Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10,000,000 in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
If you’re researching AT&T Pebble Beach One and Done Picks this week while trying not to overthink it, you’ll definitely want to start here.
First, note that the purse for the AT&T Pebble Beach is $20M ($3.6M to the winner). This is the first Signature Event of the year, with nearly double the prize pool of previous tournaments.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean you should reach for the top shelf when picking a golfer. We’ll explain below.
The Shortcut to Smarter Golf One and Done Picks
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Optimizer combines odds, stats, projected pick popularity, and season-planning context in one place, so you can make a confident pick fast without guessing and without juggling tabs.
It also accounts for the part that trips most people up with Signature Events: whether a golfer is actually worth using now, or better saved for the player-hosted events, majors, and Players Championship later on.
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Top 10 Golfers by Pebble Beach Odds
Here are the top outright win odds as of Tuesday afternoon, February 10:
1. Scottie Scheffler +300
2. Rory McIlroy +1100
3. Tommy Fleetwood +2200
4. Viktor Hovland +2500
5. Si Woo Kim +2500
6. Justin Rose +2500
7. Xander Schauffele +2500
8. Russell Henley +2800
9. Hideki Matsuyama +2800
10. Maverick McNealy +2800
Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite after nearly winning last week. Rory McIlroy makes his season debut after winning this event a year ago.
Justin Rose won the Farmers two weeks ago and also won Pebble Beach in 2023. Chris Gotterup arrives with his second win of the year on Sunday and three victories in his last 12 starts.
Other past winners in this field include Wyndham Clark, Tom Hoge, Daniel Berger, Nick Taylor, and Jordan Spieth.
Pebble Beach Projected Pick Popularity
Popularity is not everything, but it matters. In larger pools, you want to know whether you’re picking a strong play that a few people also like, or a true chalk pick that caps your ability to separate.
Here are the projected most popular AT&T Pebble Beach One and Done picks this week, according to the PoolGenius Golf One and Done Tool:
1. Justin Rose (15%+ range)
2. Si Woo Kim (8-14% range)
3. Viktor Hovland (8-14% range)
4. Russell Henley (4-7%)
5. Jason Day (4-7%)
6. Maverick McNealy (4-7%)
7. Patrick Cantlay (4-7%)
8. Hideki Matsuyama (4-7%)
9. Tommy Fleetwood (4-7%)
10. Chris Gotterup (1-3%)
As you can see, there’s quite a bit of overlap between the golfers with strong outright odds and the ones projected to be popular picks. But there’s a critical question here: just because guys like Rose, Hovland, or Matsuyama have solid win odds doesn’t mean this is the right week to deploy them. We’ll get to that in the next section.
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Best AT&T Pebble Beach Golf One and Done Picks
This is where people get tripped up. The best pick isn’t necessarily the golfer with the best odds.
Save Your Absolute Top Tier
Scheffler, Rory, and Fleetwood all look tempting at the top of the board, but they’re the exact type of golfers you want to hold for the highest-leverage events.
In a standard One and Done season, you make around 31 picks. At least six tournaments carry bigger first-place prizes than Pebble Beach: the three player-hosted Signature Events, the Players Championship, the Masters, and the U.S. Open.
Even if Scheffler or Rory looks like a strong win candidate here, you still have to ask whether this is the optimal week to spend them. In most pool setups, the answer is no.
The Justin Rose Dilemma
Justin Rose is projected to be the most popular pick by a wide margin. He won the Farmers two weeks ago, won Pebble Beach in 2023, and sits in the top tier of win odds.
The case for Rose is obvious. He brings real win equity and proven course history.
The case against Rose comes down to two things: popularity and future value. In larger pools, high ownership can dilute your edge even when a pick performs well. And while Rose isn’t in the same tier as Scheffler or Rory, he’s still a golfer you might prefer later on when he is less popular.
Five Other Picks Worth Considering
With that in mind, here are four strong options with better risk-reward profiles.
1. Xander Schauffele is a more aggressive play if you want to spend a premium asset while preserving Scheffler and Rory. He offers near top-tier win odds without the same long-term opportunity cost as the biggest names.
2. Maverick McNealy is coming off a pair of Top 15 performances and profiles well at Pebble Beach. He’s the type of golfer you can use now without feeling forced to reserve him for the absolute biggest purses later.
3. Patrick Cantlay brings consistent Signature Event performance and typically draws lower ownership than Rose or Hovland. In larger pools, that difference can provide meaningful leverage.
4. Chris Gotterup is a pure future value saver who offers upside after his recent win without closing doors for the biggest events still to come.
5. Shane Lowry and Jason Day are pure future-value savings plays with reasonable course histories. Lowry is a risk-reward pick making his season debut, but he did finish runner-up here last season. Day has finished 13th or better here in the last two years, and he tied for runner-up at The American Express a few weeks ago.
If you want to dial this in to your exact pool format and risk tolerance, the PoolGenius tool will sort the best options for your entry in seconds.
Get Your Pebble Beach Pick & Season Plan Now
If you’re serious about Golf One and Done, the edge is not just picking a good golfer. It’s picking the right golfer at the right time, based on your pool’s rules and the weeks that actually matter.
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool tailors pick grades to your exact format, then lets you look ahead with a season planner so you can see what you’re giving up when you burn a top golfer early.
It’s the fastest way to make a confident pick now and avoid regret later.
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