CBB Grind Down: Monday, February 23rd
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Monday, February 23
A short three-game slate on this Monday, highlighted by the news that Chris Jones has been dismissed from the Louisville team. Louisville will be the talk of the value today, but the real points are going to be scored in the Xavier/St. John’s game.
Louisville at Georgia Tech
| Louisville | Georgia Tech | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 123 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.78 | Vegas Total | 123 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.22 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 33.78 | Vegas Sprd | 5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 26.89 | |
| Team Proj. | 64 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.67 | Team Proj. | 59 | Opponent TOs/GM | 14.33 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 91% | Field Goal % | 44.00% | Ast/TO Ratio | 85% | Field Goal % | 43.90% | |
Louisville
Montrezl Harrell ($10,000) – Yes, he is the most expensive guy, but there is a real chance that you need him on your team tonight to win anything. Georgia Tech is weak inside, Chris Jones is gone, and Louisville is going to dump the ball into Harrell the entire night and let him go to work. He has been playing better as of late and I would be really surprised if Harrell did not end up with at least 15 and 10 tonight.
Terry Rozier ($8,100) – This Louisville team struggles to score and at Georgia Tech tonight you could argue it would make sense to fade a guy like Rozier. That being said, I will not be fading him, as his usage rate goes up to 35% with Jones off the floor and he essentially does everything for Louisville now. He has struggled in the last couple and my ownership of him will not be that high, but I will not be fading him altogether, especially with his nice price at $8,100 here on FanDuel.
Wayne Blackshear ($5,500) – I cannot believe that I am saying this, but I think Blackshear is the way to go for value tonight on Louisville. He was absolutely awful in the last game without Jones, but he was in foul trouble the whole time and has a proven track record of success, unlike Quentin Snider. I was not big on the Louisville replacements before and I still am not now. I would go Blackshear over Snider, not because of any personal feelings (-2 fantasy points still stings) but because Blackshear is a proven commodity over the years and his minutes are set.
Chinanu Onuaku ($5,400) – With no Chris Jones, I do believe that Onuaku gets a little bump. He crossed 25 fantasy points against Syracuse with no Jones, got some extra run and was more involved in the offense. He seems to be playing much better now and I think this is a sneaky time to use him and hope for a lot of blocks. Pitino seems to be getting more confidence in him and I expect him to play a lot tonight.
Georgia Tech
None – It is really hard to fade a complete team on a three-game slate, but if you are going to do it, I think today and Georgia Tech is the team to do it on. They play a deep bench and are the lowest scoring projected team in a low pace game because of Louisville’s slow tempo and solid defense. They have no one who consistently hits value and their high usage guy in Marcus Georges-Hunt is overpriced. I do not think you need to risk it here with Mitchell or Cox either.
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