CBB Grind Down: Sunday, February 22nd
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Sunday, February 22
There are only two weeks left in the regular season for the major conferences. This will be the last week of the regular season of mid-majors, but we are not concerned with them. We have a great all-day slate here, which is my favorite slate to play because the sweat is spread out over 10 hours and you can follow everything that is going on. The bubble games are really ramping up and this should be a great race to the finish.
Ohio State at Michigan
| Ohio State | Michigan | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 127 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 12.78 | Vegas Total | 127 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.50 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.67 | Vegas Sprd | 5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 20.80 | |
| Team Proj. | 66 | Opponent TOs/GM | 9.50 | Team Proj. | 61 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.44 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 137% | Field Goal % | 53.30% | Ast/TO Ratio | 138% | Field Goal % | 43.50% | |
Ohio State
Jae’Sean Tate ($5,700) – I really do not want to use Russell here for $10,800 as I do not think that he is going to pay off that absurdly high salary. Michigan is not good by any means, but their perimeter defense is decent and they play a very slow tempo especially at home. Tate, on the other hand, gets a great matchup here with Michigan’s weak interior. Tate is a very undersized power forward who thrives with a little bit of space to move, which Ohio State will bring and Michigan will be happy to oblige. His minutes are set, and he has a cheap price.
Michigan
Zak Irvin ($6,700) – It’s honestly hard to like anyone from Michigan lately because they just do not play enough possessions and the guys taking over for Walton and LeVert outside of Albrecht and Irvin are just not reliable. I do like Irvin here who is cheap, gets the tempo bump from Ohio State, is the go-to player on this team and will take about 15 shots here. This is a rivalry game so Michigan should be up for the task and I would expect Irvin to have a big part in it.
Memphis at UCF
| Memphis | UCF | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 135 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 8.38 | Vegas Total | 135 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 6.33 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 33.00 | Vegas Sprd | 5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 18.89 | |
| Team Proj. | 70 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.89 | Team Proj. | 65 | Opponent TOs/GM | 16.50 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 72% | Field Goal % | 42.50% | Ast/TO Ratio | 97% | Field Goal % | 45.30% | |
Memphis
Austin Nichols ($8,000) – With Nichols back in the lineup and obviously the go-to guy (he took 20 shots in their last game after returning from injury), we can set the hierarchy as Nichols and then Goodwin. Nichols is only $800 more than Goodwin today and is much safer than the other big on Memphis. I like Nichols’ price here especially against a UCF team who is awful defensively. I would not read anything into the last game against UCF as his shoulder was banged up, and it was a blowout so there was no reason to play him. His price is right here for a 40-point fantasy game especially with the block upside that he brings.
Kedren Johnson ($5,300) – Like I thought, Johnson has basically locked up the Memphis point guard spot right now. The problem is, with Pastner you really never know who is going to get the minutes. The matchup with UCF is so attractive that we cannot ignore the Tigers today but none of them aside from Nichols comes without risk. Johnson is still cheap and had a 30-point fantasy game last time out which should let Pastner give him a little bit more slack. I am not a huge fan of his price but because of how awful UCF’s defense is, he is in play.
UCF
B.J. Taylor ($5,600) – Taylor is inexpensive here, will most likely play the entire game against Memphis and has the highest shot percentage on the team at 26%. Taylor was able to get to the line at will in the last game against Memphis and I expect him to be able to do quite the same here. It is hard deciding between Taylor and Goodwin but I will take the better scorer and the price discount.
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