CBB Grind Down: Tuesday, February 17th

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Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.

Tuesday, February 17

One day from the Before the Madness main even on FanDuel, and we have the super Alley-Oop today, which is almost full at the writing of this around 1 PM Eastern. It will certainly fill, so get your entries in now. There are a couple of fun games on the docket tonight, which should make this an entertaining one no doubt.

Baylor at Texas Tech

Baylor Texas Tech
Vegas Total 121 Fast Break Pts/Gm 2.44 Vegas Total 121 Fast Break Pts/Gm 7.25
Vegas Sprd -9 Paint Pts/Gm 28.22 Vegas Sprd 9 Paint Pts/Gm 28.75
Team Proj. 65 Opponent TOs/GM 13.88 Team Proj. 56 Opponent TOs/GM 13.11
Ast/TO Ratio 113% Field Goal % 44.60% Ast/TO Ratio 80% Field Goal % 43.60%

Baylor

Kenny Chery ($6,600) – While Gathers is definitely a solid play here, he is expensive and there are a couple of other guys I like more than him, especially because this game is projected at 60 possessions tonight, which does not leave a lot of meat on the bones for Gathers’ rebound totals. Chery has excelled in games against inferior competition this year and has 35-point upside for only being $6,600. I would not use him in cash games, but I do think he makes a viable guard play for tournaments. He relies on his team scoring the ball and scoring it himself, which should happen efficiently here, and the lack of rebounds will not affect him much.

Texas Tech

None – We fade Texas Tech almost every single slate and today it is no different. Baylor is slow and has a good defense, will likely hold Texas Tech to around the mid 50s, and there is no real dominant player. While their prices are all extremely cheap, they spread the ball around and no one ever has a big game. Against the long, athletic Bears, I will pass with no regret.

St. John’s at Georgetown

St. John’s Georgetown
Vegas Total 136 Fast Break Pts/Gm 12.67 Vegas Total 136 Fast Break Pts/Gm 5.33
Vegas Sprd 6 Paint Pts/Gm 29.11 Vegas Sprd -6 Paint Pts/Gm 22.44
Team Proj. 65 Opponent TOs/GM 14.44 Team Proj. 71 Opponent TOs/GM 11.89
Ast/TO Ratio 105% Field Goal % 44.90% Ast/TO Ratio 97% Field Goal % 48.80%

St. John’s

D’Angelo Harrison ($8,700) – Has St. John’s righted the ship? I am not sure, but we will see today as they visit Georgetown. Obekpa is the one thing that I am really looking at today. I do not want to use him, as he seemed like he was still nursing the ankle last game and he has a very low floor for $6,000, but him struggling again would really boost Pointer’s value. Pointer has been great with Obekpa out as the tallest guy on the court, and while he has massive upside for $9,900, an away game where St. John’s is projected as the loser has me off him as well. I will go cheaper and go with Harrison, who has strapped this team on his back in the last couple weeks, scoring at will and taking a lot of shots. Georgetown’s interior defense is much better than their perimeter defense and Harrison should be able to get whatever he wants. He also would get a rebounding boost if Obekpa only played 20 minutes tonight and not 30.

Rysheed Jordan ($6,700) – Jordan is $2,000 cheaper than Harrison today and has just under Harrison’s upside. Jordan got into early foul trouble in the last game and only managed 20 minutes, but when he gets close to 40 which he should here he is a good bet for 30 fantasy points. His price is nice and affordable, and with a massive usage rate, he should be a solid play if you do not want to pay up for Harrison.

Georgetown

Isaac Copeland ($5,300) – As JT3, how would you sit this guy? He continues to produce when he is on the floor, with his latest game a 20-point, 8-rebound performance in 24 minutes. He is minutes dependent, but who isn’t? I would expect him to see again 25-30 minutes in this one, and he makes a great play down at $5,300, especially against a St. John’s team who is on the road here and has a hobbling Obekpa trying to defend the rim.

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About the Author

Varncass
Jon Schiller (Varncass)

Jon Schiller (aka Varncass) has been providing college sports content for the fantasy industry since 2012 and the sports betting industry since 2022. He’s an analytics junkie who uses any and all predictive stats and game theory to discover edges for the RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds community. Follow Jon on Twitter – @Bronzesword