CBB Grind Down: Wednesday, February 18th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Wednesday, February 18
We have one of the bigger tournaments in college basketball history on FanDuel tonight in the Before the Madness main event. There is a very nice slate of games tonight and it should be an extremely entertaining tournament. There is a huge prize of $10K out there for first, so let’s get to the breakdown to help you all get there.
Xavier at Cincinnati
Xavier | Cincinnati | |||||||
Vegas Total | 124 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.00 | Vegas Total | 124 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.13 | |
Vegas Sprd | 2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 32.70 | Vegas Sprd | -2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.75 | |
Team Proj. | 61 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.88 | Team Proj. | 63 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.60 | |
Ast/TO Ratio | 148% | Field Goal % | 52.60% | Ast/TO Ratio | 88% | Field Goal % | 41.80% |
Xavier
None – If you have followed this all season long, you know that we hardly take any players against Cincinnati. They are just too slow and too good defensively to make any player a very good play. Xavier will try to pump the tempo a bit in this one, but most likely will not succeed, as Cincinnati will make it difficult to score and take time on the offensive end. Xavier spreads the ball around really well and there really is not a single guy I trust to make value here. Just because there is not any real solid fantasy plays here, this matchup should entertain us all, as it was the one that brought a giant brawl not too long ago and it is one of the best rivalries in college hoops.
Cincinnati
Octavius Ellis ($7,200) – I think there is some merit in taking Ellis today on FanDuel. He has had a few monster games in the past, and Xavier plays an up-tempo style and does not have a very solid half court defense. Cincinnati should be able to score on them, and despite his high price, I think he contributes in enough categories to make it worthwhile to choose him – he has a massive block rate and is one of the only real rebounders on the team.
Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech | Miami (FL) | |||||||
Vegas Total | 131 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.11 | Vegas Total | 131 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.10 | |
Vegas Sprd | 11 | Paint Pts/Gm | 31.33 | Vegas Sprd | -11 | Paint Pts/Gm | 29.60 | |
Team Proj. | 60 | Opponent TOs/GM | 10.80 | Team Proj. | 71 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.33 | |
Ast/TO Ratio | 96% | Field Goal % | 49.00% | Ast/TO Ratio | 134% | Field Goal % | 47.20% |
Virginia Tech
Malik Muller ($5,800) – At $5,800 and locked into 30 minutes per game, Muller makes an interesting play here. I do not love Virginia Tech in this spot, because there are not a very good basketball team, but Muller has been getting opportunities lately and has been very involved in the offense, scoring 17 points in each of the last two games. With the lack of post players, the guard has been playing under the basket, which has at times boosted his rebounding totals. I would not be building my lineup around him, but he is an interesting gamble for $5,800, as he has made value each of the last two games against good opponents.
Miami (FL)
Tonye Jekiri ($7,700) – A little pricier than I would like on Jekiri, but it does not matter if he is going to post a 30 point fantasy game. Jekiri has been up and down all year but has a great matchup tonight in what should be a easy game for Miami to dominate. Jekiri has block upside here against a Virginia Tech team with no real post presence. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, he should dominate the offensive and defensive glass, come up with a double double, and find enough other stats to hit 30 fantasy points here.
Davon Reed ($6,200) – I have lost complete faith in Angel Rodriguez, although if he is going to break out in any game this is probably going to be it. Instead, I would look at Reed, who made is way back from knee surgery to be one of the best players in this rotation. He has been performing around a 25 point per game pace, which makes his value here often, and he has a cake matchup against a terrible Virginia Tech team at home.
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