Cognizant Classic Picks for One and Done Pools: Chalk or Not? (2026)
Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10 million in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
If you are sorting through Cognizant Classic One and Done picks this week and the field looks a little unfamiliar, that is not your imagination.
The Florida swing kicks off at PGA National with a Tier 3 purse ($9,600,000 total, $1,656,000 to the winner) and a field that is missing a lot of the names you are used to seeing at the top of the board.
That changes how you should approach Golf One and Done picks this week, and it’s actually good news for pool players willing to think it through.
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The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Optimizer pulls together odds, projected pick popularity, future value rankings, and season-planning context so you can make a sharp pick without spending hours bouncing between ten different tabs.
This week in particular, the tool is useful for sorting through a board where grade differences between golfers are tighter than usual and dealing with ownership concentration at the top that will be higher than usual.
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Top Cognizant Classic Win Odds
Here are the top golfers by outright win odds as of Tuesday afternoon, Feb. 24:
- Shane Lowry +1400
- Ryan Gerard +1400
- Nicolai Hojgaard +1800
- Rasmus Hojgaard +2000
- Michael Thorbjornsen +2000
- Keith Mitchell +2500
- Brooks Koepka +2500.
Nobody is running away with this; the top two are co-favorites at +1400, and there is a long cluster of players at +3300 who all have a reasonable shot.
That kind of board makes the popularity question even more important than usual, because there is no dominant chalk forcing everyone’s hand.
Cognizant Classic One and Done Pick Popularity
Popularity is not everything, but in a week where ownership figures are expected to bunch up at the top, it matters more than average.
Here are the five names projected to draw the most picks this week, according to the PoolGenius Golf One and Done Tool:
1. Shane Lowry
2. Ryan Gerard
3. Nicolai Hojgaard
4. Michael Thorbjornsen
5. Keith Mitchell
Lowry and Gerard are each projected to draw well above the typical range for co-favorites, likely into the mid-teens or higher.
The next tier, Nicolai Hojgaard, Thorbjornsen, and Mitchell, should come in somewhere between 7 and 14% apiece, tiering down from there.
In a week with multiple withdrawals concentrating the field, that adds up fast, and a significant chunk of any large pool could land on just two or three golfers. Because of that, you need to know exactly where you stand before you click.
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Best Cognizant Classic Golf One and Done Picks
Here is where this week gets interesting and a little different from most weeks on the calendar.
Future Value Savings: Not the Main Concern This Week
In a normal week, the conversation starts with which premium assets you are burning and whether the purse justifies it. That is less of an issue here.
Shane Lowry is the only golfer in this entire field who ranks inside the PoolGenius Top 35 season-long rankings. Only three players, Lowry, Gerard, and Daniel Berger, are automatically qualified for every 2026 Signature Event by virtue of finishing in the FedEx Top 50 last season.
Everyone else in this field is playing their way in, so the stars you would typically be protecting are largely not here. You have more freedom to make your pick based on win equity and leverage rather than worrying about burning a top-tier asset at the wrong time.
The real question this week is simply: who wins, and how many people in your pool are already on them?
So, Who Should You Pick?
Shane Lowry is the top-ranked golfer in this field by PoolGenius ratings and sits as a co-favorite on the odds board. His course history is real, and the case for using him is straightforward.
The question is whether you are comfortable being on the same pick as a large chunk of your pool. At projected ownership that could push well above 15%, you are giving up a lot of leverage in a week where the winning score could come from almost anywhere.
If you want to pivot off Lowry, there are good options:
- Ryan Gerard is right there with him in odds and grades, with some of the best recent form on tour.
- Nicolai Hojgaard has been one of the better ball-strikers in the game lately and modeled extremely well for the current PGA National setup.
- Michael Thorbjornsen is a tier below in projected ownership but not far behind in win equity.
- Max McGreevy is the clearest leverage play on the board, with top-10 odds at roughly 1 to 3% ownership and a fourth-place finish here last year.
It All Comes Down to Your Pool
The right pick this week genuinely depends on your pool size, payout structure, and whether segment prizes are in play. In a small pool, the chalk (Lowry or Gerard) is more acceptable. In a large pool with top-heavy payouts, that same chalk could be a ceiling.
The PoolGenius OAD Optimizer takes all of this into account and gives you a grade built for your specific situation.
Get Your Cognizant Classic Pick Grades & Season Plan
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool gives you customized pick grades based on your specific pool, then maps out the season so every decision has context.
You can see exactly how the popular picks grade in your format, where the leverage spots are, and what you are giving up in future value when you use a golfer now versus later.
It is the fastest way to go from a confusing board to a confident pick.
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