Easter Basket Odds: The States Where You're Most Likely To Get Peeps
© RotoGrinders
Easter morning is full of surprises. Between egg hunts, baskets, and chocolate overload, what you end up with can feel a lot like chance.
Some baskets deliver the dream haul. Think Reese’s Peanut Butter Eggs, Cadbury Mini Eggs, and chocolate bunnies galore. Others? A handful of dubious jelly beans… or the ever-controversial Peeps.
Here at RotoGrinders, we like odds and prediction markets. So we set out to answer the question: What are your odds of getting each Easter candy — and where are you most likely to end up with Peeps?
Using candy popularity data and regional search trends, we calculated Easter basket “candy odds” and identified the states where Peeps are most likely to appear.
Key Insights
- The average Easter basket has about a 20% chance of including Peeps.
- West Virginia is the Peeps capital of the U.S., with a 35% chance.
- Pennsylvania (32.2%) and Wyoming (28.0%) follow behind.
- Arkansas and Montana are least likely (12.6%).
- Reese’s Peanut Butter Eggs dominate overall candy odds with a 65% probability.
- Chocolate makes up the top five most likely Easter candies.
Easter Candy Odds
These numbers show how likely each candy is to end up in your Easter basket — think of them as your “candy odds.”
| Rank | Candy | Implied Probability | Fractional Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reese’s Peanut Butter Eggs | 65% | 1/1 | -186 |
| 2 | Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups | 60% | 1/1 | -150 |
| 3 | Cadbury Chocolate Mini Eggs | 55% | 1/1 | -122 |
| 4 | Hershey’s Milk Chocolate | 50% | 1/1 | 100 |
| 5 | Cadbury Creme Egg | 45% | 1/1 | 122 |
| 6 | Sour Patch Kids | 40% | 2/1 | 150 |
| 7 | Lindt Milk Chocolate Bunny | 35% | 2/1 | 186 |
| 8 | Starburst Jelly Beans | 30% | 2/1 | 233 |
| 9 | Hershey’s Milk Chocolate Candy Eggs | 25% | 3/1 | 300 |
| 10 | Peeps | 20% | 4/1 | 403 |
*Odds are for entertainment purposes only.
In short: chocolate dominates Easter baskets nationwide, while Peeps remain a regional wildcard.
The top five items are all chocolate-based, with Reese’s and Cadbury leading the way.
Peeps, while iconic, are far less universal. This makes them the Easter equivalent of a “wild card” candy.
The States Where You’re Most Likely To Get Peeps
While Peeps appear nationwide, some states have a much stronger appetite for the marshmallow treat than others.
| Rank | State | Implied Probability | Fractional Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Virginia | 35.00% | 2/1 | 186 |
| 2 | Pennsylvania | 32.20% | 2/1 | 211 |
| 3 | Wyoming | 28.00% | 3/1 | 257 |
| 4 | Wisconsin | 26.60% | 3/1 | 276 |
| 5 | Ohio | 24.50% | 3/1 | 308 |
| 6 | Alaska | 24.20% | 3/1 | 313 |
| 6 | Indiana | 24.20% | 3/1 | 313 |
| 6 | New Mexico | 24.20% | 3/1 | 313 |
| 9 | South Dakota | 23.10% | 3/1 | 333 |
| 10 | New Hampshire | 22.80% | 3/1 | 339 |
| 11 | Kansas | 22.40% | 4/1 | 346 |
| 11 | Nebraska | 22.40% | 4/1 | 346 |
| 13 | Iowa | 22.10% | 4/1 | 352 |
| 13 | Mississippi | 22.10% | 4/1 | 352 |
| 13 | New Jersey | 22.10% | 4/1 | 352 |
| 16 | South Carolina | 21.70% | 4/1 | 361 |
| 17 | Missouri | 21.40% | 4/1 | 367 |
| 17 | Minnesota | 21.40% | 4/1 | 367 |
| 19 | North Dakota | 20.70% | 4/1 | 383 |
| 20 | Maryland | 20.30% | 4/1 | 393 |
| 20 | Illinois | 20.30% | 4/1 | 393 |
| 20 | Louisiana | 20.30% | 4/1 | 393 |
| 23 | Michigan | 19.60% | 4/1 | 410 |
| 23 | Vermont | 19.60% | 4/1 | 410 |
| 25 | Colorado | 19.30% | 4/1 | 418 |
| 25 | Maine | 19.30% | 4/1 | 418 |
| 27 | Utah | 18.90% | 4/1 | 429 |
| 27 | Kentucky | 18.90% | 4/1 | 429 |
| 27 | Oklahoma | 18.90% | 4/1 | 429 |
| 27 | Connecticut | 18.90% | 4/1 | 429 |
| 31 | Massachusetts | 18.60% | 4/1 | 438 |
| 31 | Alabama | 18.60% | 4/1 | 438 |
| 33 | Arizona | 17.90% | 5/1 | 459 |
| 33 | Delaware | 17.90% | 5/1 | 459 |
| 35 | North Carolina | 17.50% | 5/1 | 471 |
| 35 | Texas | 17.50% | 5/1 | 471 |
| 37 | Idaho | 17.20% | 5/1 | 481 |
| 37 | Nevada | 17.20% | 5/1 | 481 |
| 39 | Rhode Island | 16.80% | 5/1 | 495 |
| 40 | Tennessee | 16.50% | 5/1 | 506 |
| 41 | Virginia | 16.10% | 5/1 | 521 |
| 41 | New York | 16.10% | 5/1 | 521 |
| 43 | Washington | 15.40% | 6/1 | 549 |
| 44 | Florida | 14.70% | 6/1 | 580 |
| 45 | Georgia | 14.30% | 6/1 | 599 |
| 45 | Oregon | 14.30% | 6/1 | 599 |
| 47 | California | 13.70% | 6/1 | 630 |
| 48 | Hawaii | 13.00% | 7/1 | 669 |
| 49 | Montana | 12.60% | 7/1 | 694 |
| 49 | Arkansas | 12.60% | 7/1 | 694 |
Top 5 Peeps-Loving States
1. West Virginia (35.0%)
The clear #1 destination for Peeps lovers. Around 35% of West Virginian Easter baskets will contain the controversial marshmallow chicks.
2. Pennsylvania (32.2%)
Pennsylvania may be known for chocolate, but maybe they should be known for their Peeps obsession too.
3. Wyoming (28.0%)
In Wyoming, around 28% of Easter baskets will have Peeps. This gives the Cowboy state the 3rd highest odds in the nation.
4. Wisconsin (26.6%)
Wisconsin ranks among the top Peeps-loving states, with more than one in four Easter baskets including the marshmallow favorite.
5. Ohio (24.5%)
In Ohio, about 24.5% of Easter baskets include Peeps, giving the state some of the highest odds in the country.
Where Peeps Are Least Popular
1. Arkansas — 12.6%
2. Montana — 12.6%
3. Hawaii — 13.0%
4. California — 13.7%
5. Oregon — 14.3%
Other Interesting Facts
- Biggest Easter gamble: Peeps vary widely by location compared to near-lock chocolate picks.
- Regional trends: Midwest and Northeast dominate Peeps popularity.
- Coastal divide: Coastal states lean heavily toward chocolate over marshmallow treats.
May The Odds Be Ever In Your Favor
Easter baskets, much like roulette, are a game of chance. You might land a chocolate jackpot filled with Reese’s and Cadbury eggs, or end up face-to-face with a pack of Peeps.
If you’re trying to avoid marshmallow overload, your best bet might be heading west. But if you love Peeps, the Midwest and Northeast are your sweet spot.
Either way, a little luck (and maybe an extra egg hunt or two) can go a long way.
Unfortunately, no sports betting or predictive market is currently taking bets or trades for the contents of your Easter basket. However, if you’re interested in more atypical markets you can use this kalshi promo code or polymarket invite code to check them out.
Maybe one day they will have a peeps related trading option.
Methodology
To calculate Easter candy odds, we combined:
- Instacart data on the most popular Easter candies
- Google Trends search data for Peeps by state (April 1–April 20, 2025)
- Probability scaling to reflect relative popularity
Implied probabilities were calculated by normalizing search interest and converting those values into fractional and American-style odds.
These odds are for entertainment purposes only and are not reflective of any betting markets. You can see the full ranking here.