Expert Picks Preview: Week 1
Glean insight from one of the game’s best in EHafner’s NFL Head-to-Head/50-50 Picks, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his cash games below. Each day you can get in-depth analysis by position for FanDuel Head-to-Head, Double-up and/or 50-50 games.
Week 1
QUARTERBACK
1) Peyton Manning: $10200 – One of the basic concepts of 50-50 or head to head play is to construct a roster with a high floor. With that in mind, I couldn’t think of a better player to start my picks with than Peyton Manning. The % chance Peyton puts up a dud this weekend is closer to 0% than any other player on the board. The key playmaker on Indy’s defense, pass-rusher Robert Mathis, will be off the field serving a 4 game suspension. I expect Peyton to be among the top players in all of fantasy this week and he gives your 50-50 games a nice base of points to work from.
2) Nick Foles: $8500 – The Eagles are at home matched up against the Jags this week, and the forecast is what you’d probably guess. They’re the biggest favorite in Vegas and they have the highest point expectation. Sharp money is coming in on the Jags, but even when I adjust my projections for that, the Eagles still come up left and right as top values on FanDuel this week. Some people might look at $8500 on Nick Foles, an average talent, and raise their eyebrows a bit. The way I see it, this is $8500 on not only Nick Foles, but Chip Kelly as an offensive coach (elite), elite OL, pace (up-tempo), weapons (pretty good) and matchup (Jags one of the worst teams in the NFL).
3) Jay Cutler: $8000 – In the same vein as Nick Foles, I’m high on Cutler for reasons beyond his talent. I think Trestman is an excellent offensive football coach, and Marshall/Jeffery is the best WR duo in the league. The Bills have some nice players on defense, but they’re mostly in the front 7. One of those talented players is Kiko Alonso, who tore his ACL a couple months ago and is out for the season. I believe his absence will have a bigger impact than most people have accounted for. The secondary is young and likely to improve, but for now they’re a defense I’ll continue to pick against.
RUNNING BACK
1) Lesean McCoy: $9400 – As the Eagles regular season came to a close, McCoy cruised the sidelines with a championship belt on his shoulder. McCoy earned that strap as the league’s leading rusher, and I don’t see any signs of him slowing down. I like to target RB’s on teams that are heavy favorites. My reasoning is that they’ll have the lead late in the game, and they’ll run the ball at a higher rate than average to kill the clock. With the Eagles favored by 10 this week McCoy will likely see a ton of usage, which is the #1 thing I look for in 50-50 games.
2) Montee Ball: $8000 – It’s always a little nerve-racking being an early adopter, but I think Montee Ball is a good value at $8000 this week. Sure, we haven’t seen Montee carry the load as a feature back in the NFL yet, but the Broncos are one of the best bets to move the ball up and down the field this week and put up points. Montee Ball is also the team’s best runner between the tackles, so he should get the majority of the goal line work.
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