Expert Picks Preview: Week 1

EHafner

Glean insight from one of the game’s best in EHafner’s NFL Head-to-Head/50-50 Picks, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his cash games below. Each day you can get in-depth analysis by position for FanDuel Head-to-Head, Double-up and/or 50-50 games.

Week 1

QUARTERBACK

1) Peyton Manning: $10200 – One of the basic concepts of 50-50 or head to head play is to construct a roster with a high floor. With that in mind, I couldn’t think of a better player to start my picks with than Peyton Manning. The % chance Peyton puts up a dud this weekend is closer to 0% than any other player on the board. The key playmaker on Indy’s defense, pass-rusher Robert Mathis, will be off the field serving a 4 game suspension. I expect Peyton to be among the top players in all of fantasy this week and he gives your 50-50 games a nice base of points to work from.

2) Nick Foles: $8500 – The Eagles are at home matched up against the Jags this week, and the forecast is what you’d probably guess. They’re the biggest favorite in Vegas and they have the highest point expectation. Sharp money is coming in on the Jags, but even when I adjust my projections for that, the Eagles still come up left and right as top values on FanDuel this week. Some people might look at $8500 on Nick Foles, an average talent, and raise their eyebrows a bit. The way I see it, this is $8500 on not only Nick Foles, but Chip Kelly as an offensive coach (elite), elite OL, pace (up-tempo), weapons (pretty good) and matchup (Jags one of the worst teams in the NFL).

3) Jay Cutler: $8000 – In the same vein as Nick Foles, I’m high on Cutler for reasons beyond his talent. I think Trestman is an excellent offensive football coach, and Marshall/Jeffery is the best WR duo in the league. The Bills have some nice players on defense, but they’re mostly in the front 7. One of those talented players is Kiko Alonso, who tore his ACL a couple months ago and is out for the season. I believe his absence will have a bigger impact than most people have accounted for. The secondary is young and likely to improve, but for now they’re a defense I’ll continue to pick against.

RUNNING BACK

1) Lesean McCoy: $9400 – As the Eagles regular season came to a close, McCoy cruised the sidelines with a championship belt on his shoulder. McCoy earned that strap as the league’s leading rusher, and I don’t see any signs of him slowing down. I like to target RB’s on teams that are heavy favorites. My reasoning is that they’ll have the lead late in the game, and they’ll run the ball at a higher rate than average to kill the clock. With the Eagles favored by 10 this week McCoy will likely see a ton of usage, which is the #1 thing I look for in 50-50 games.

2) Montee Ball: $8000 – It’s always a little nerve-racking being an early adopter, but I think Montee Ball is a good value at $8000 this week. Sure, we haven’t seen Montee carry the load as a feature back in the NFL yet, but the Broncos are one of the best bets to move the ball up and down the field this week and put up points. Montee Ball is also the team’s best runner between the tackles, so he should get the majority of the goal line work.

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About the Author

  • Erik Hafner (ehafner)

  • Ehafner started playing Daily Fantasy Sports in October 2012 with small deposits on FanDuel and DraftStreet. With those deposits, he has quickly ascended to Top 5 Overall on RotoGrinders. EHafner is a 2013 DSBBC Finalist, the 2013 RG MLB Leaderboard Champion, and the 2013 RG NHL Leaderboard: Champion Before finding Daily Fantasy, he received a Bachelor’s degree from University of California, Riverside. After college he took an unconventional path and became a professional poker player. He now plays both DFS and poker professionally.

Comments

  • deactivated23444

    I think if you would do better with this promo if you gave the whole article away first week, if it does well your golden RG’s on incentive subs.

  • McJester

    • 2014 RotoGrinders TPOY Champion

    • 113

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #76

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @Ml318 I agree, but trust me the guy knows his stuff (I have zero “incentive” to sell it, just being honest).

    Anyhow, I keep up on all sharp money movements and, as Ehaf infers, that isn’t a downgrade on the Eagles from a fantasy perspective. If anything, as such big favorites, wise-guys liking the Jags to be somewhat competitive is a plus for the Eagles offense — assuming it keeps them grinding out that offensive machine deep into the 4th. If all the sharps loved the Eagles and bookmaker’s respected that, that could cause me to hesitate on the Eagles since it would increase the chances of this game being over prematurely.

    Perhaps the best question in a scenario where the Jags come to play is who do you like from the Jags? Nailing that could be one of several ways to separate yourself from the heard this week.

  • ehafner

    • 2015 RotoGrinders TPOY Champion

    • 69

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #54

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • $1M Prize Winner

    Personally I’ll have some exposure to Gerhart but I worry about his usage. Early reports had him as a 3 down back but it sounds like Denard Robinson’s going to cut in now. I think Shorts is an interesting GPP option he’s the #1 WR and supposedly healthy.

  • deactivated23444

    No Doubt McJester, ehafner is a baller. We all know that. That was never the issue.

  • McJester

    • 2014 RotoGrinders TPOY Champion

    • 113

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #76

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    ml318 haha alright just making sure! And Ehafner I hear ya on Gebhart. If they’re down a few scores, could easily see him disappear. His value likely will be made or broken on whether or not the Jags can get it to the goaline and he can plunge in. I think playing Gebhart means your banking on a TD. It figures, but not sure I’m confident enough in it to play him a ton. Shorts is probably the best bet for targets but if ya really wanna take a swing I could see M. Lee and/or M. Lewis making a big play.

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