Kevin Cole's 2018 NFL Betting Model: Divisional Round

Along with working extensively on NFL projections this season, I’m also putting the data to use projecting game outcomes.

Last week, we introduced a new model for side bets only and the model’s picks will only be posted on Thursday/Friday. The first version of the model is what I will call 1.0, and this model is the results of a lot of work during the season to develop a power-ranking system based on play-by-play data.

The data I’m using also has advanced metrics, including expected points added (EPA) and success rates based on EPA.

I will continue track total record for the year, along with what the results are of the new model.

Methodology

About the Author

colekev
Kevin Cole (colekev)

Kevin Cole previously worked on Wall Street as an equity and credit analyst before transitioning to data-related sports analysis. For a number of years, Kevin has specialized in creating predictive sports models that includes published work at Pro Football Focus, Rotoworld, numberFire, and RotoViz. He is now the Director of Data and Analytics at RotoGrinders.