MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 333 - Volkanovski vs. Evloev

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights)

Created Oct 23, 2026

Last Updated 2026-10-23 02:30:57 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC 333 – Volkanovski vs. Evloev.

I am willing to criticize the UFC when I feel like they deserve it, but this card deserves a tip of the cap as one of the best mixed martial arts events of the year on paper. The two title fights at the top of the bill are must-see TV. Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili look to settle the score on their trilogy (currently tied 1-1) while Alexander Volkanovski looks to further cement himself as an all-time great champion by bouncing Movsar Evloev from the ranks of the unbeaten. Top to bottom, the card is filled with competitive, meaningful matchups and highly skilled martial artists. In order for the card to develop into a crescendo, we need to start with the least anticipated matchup (and only WMMA offering) on the slate.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC 333 – Volkanovski vs. Evloev: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Iasmin Lucindo ($9,200) vs. Nicolle Caliari ($7,000)

Fight Odds: -375 Lucindo vs. +285 Caliari
Weight Class: 115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Iasmin Lucindo (5-2 UFC) made her professional fighting debut in 2017 when she was still just 15 years old. Now the 24-year-old Brazilian is returning for a theoretical “tune-up” fight after she withdrew from a scheduled bout with recent title challenger Gillian Robertson (14-7 UFC) last December. The last time we saw Lucindo compete, she took a unanimous decision victory against divisional stalwart Angela Hill (14-16 UFC). Lucindo’s only setbacks in the UFC came by way of decision against Yazmin Jauregui (4-2 UFC) in her promotional debut and former title challenger Amanda Lemos (9-7 UFC). Lucindo has already competed 24 times as a professional, she hasn’t been finished in the last 7+ years of competition, and she has finished 61% of her professional wins.

Nicolle Caliari (1-2 UFC) finally broke through with her first UFC victory after dropping down to the strawweight division. Caliari lost back-to-back flyweight fights against Ernesta Kareckaite (1-2-1 UFC) via split decision and Carli Judice via TKO3 to start her UFC career. Her most recent fight was a SUB3 win against middling strawweight Shauna Bannon (2-3 UFC). Caliari is most dangerous with her submission skills on the mat, but Lucindo has a 1-0 record to the SUB prop in the UFC (same as Caliari), and she has an 8-0 record to the KO prop as a pro (5-1 for Caliari). I like the change in weight class for Caliari, as you need to have the physicality to impose a grappling game plan on an opponent. Unfortunately for her, I think this matchup pits her against a fighter with more skills in all positions. Caliari will have to rely on her physicality, her power, and her ability to horse takedowns if she wants to win this fight.

My concern for Lucindo in this matchup is that she could get bullied by the physicality of Caliari (a very muscle-bound fighter) in the early going as she did against Lemos and Jauregui. Technically, I rate Lucindo as the more skilled fighter. She undeniably has the better UFC resume, but her tendency to fight close makes it hard to trust her with full confidence. Ultimately, I see this matchup as the UFC trying to give Lucindo a winnable fight where she can test herself, skill build, and look for a highlight-reel finish to add to the resume. Caliari did what she needed to do against Bannon to keep herself employed, but she didn’t show me that she was a future contender or even a particularly high level grappler. Caliari’s body of work suggests that when she is not able to physically bully her opponents, she is outdone technically.

Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo defeats Nicolle Caliari via Rd. 2/3/DEC (Either via SUB)

Kody Steele ($8,700) vs. Noah Gugnon ($7,500)

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