MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Gamrot vs. Salkilld.
The UFC is not turning in their best offering this Saturday, but they are welcoming a number of promising debutants and giving Quillan Salkilld a deserved main-event showcase after a 5-0 run with 4 finishes inside the octagon. He will be standing across from Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot (9-4 UFC), a man who has always lived up to his “Gamer” nickname, fighting hard in pursuit of victory. He has played spoiler before at the Apex against top contender Arman Tsarukyan, and he will look to do so again against Australia’s fastest rising lightweight contender.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night – Gamrot vs. Salkilld: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown
Julianna Miller ($8,900) vs. Ravena Oliveira ($7,300)
Fight Odds: -290 Miller vs. +215 Oliveira
Weight Class: W125lb. (Women’s Flyweight)
Julianna Miller (2-3 UFC) has a losing record with the promotion, but she can be forgiven for losing to quality opponents in Veronica Hardy (5-5 UFC), Luana Santos (6-1 UFC), and “Crispy” Carli Judice (3-1 UFC). The Ultimate Fighter Season 30 winner has a 3-1 record in the Apex if you include her 2 exhibition wins on TUF, so she should be comfortable and familiar with her environment. Miller has a massive on-paper grappling advantage in this matchup, as she high-level wins in BJJ competitions (e.g. Bia Mesquita, Fatima Kline, etc.), she has averaged more than 2 takedowns per 15 minutes (less than 1 per 15 for her opponent), and she has a 2-0 record to the submission prop (compared to 1-2 for Oliveira, with no quality wins). Miller has been credited with 5 submission attempts, 1 TKO victory due to GNP, and 9 takedowns inside the octagon. As a striker, Miller is mediocre at best, relying on her toughness and volume to keep her competitive.
Ravena “Kenoudy” Oliveira (0-3 UFC) has decent hand speed and a snappy 1-2 with some pop on it. Aside from that, she hasn’t demonstrated many UFC level skills inside the octagon. Primary striker Tainara Lisboa (2-2 UFC) racked up 3 takedowns and nearly 7 minutes of control time against Oliveira in her bantamweight (135lb.) debut, prompting her to drop to strawweight (115lb.). Oliveira went on to lose her next 2 strawweight contests, getting tapped by Stephanie Luciano (3-1 UFC) in round 3 and KO’d by Shanelle Dyer (1-0 UFC; 0-1 DWCS) in round 2. Now she is trying to find the Goldilocks weight class by moving up 10 pounds to women’s flyweight. Oliveira has a chance to win this fight because Miller has putrid striking defense and predictable forward motion, but if she can’t hurt Miller, she will be fighting on very thin margins.
The issue with trusting Miller is that she allowed Santos her only career win via KO/TKO in round 1. Miller looked slow as molasses in that fight, her grappling was totally neutralized, and she didn’t show great recoverability. Miller is a total void defensively, allowing strikes and takedowns to land. What she brings to the table is aggression, will to win, and a real grappling process. Oliveira seems like she is mid at all aspects of MMA, a decent but unimpressive athlete, and her skills are limited to physical takedowns and 2-punch combos. Miller will strike in all phases, she will compete for 15 minutes, she is less likely to punk out, and she is more likely to grapple productively from top or bottom position.
In terms of motivation, both women have a lot to fight for. Oliveira’s contract has to be at stake off of 3 straight losses, while Miller is desperate to represent her adopted home of Spokane during a regional tragedy as fires devastate her community. If this fight ends up on the ground, I expect Miller to show her level and find the submission victory.
Prediction: Julianna Miller defeats Ravena Oliveira via SUB (or Oliveira via KO1/2)
Miles Johns ($8,600) vs. Jessie Rosas ($7,600)
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights