MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Created Aug 27, 2026

Last Updated 2026-08-28 00:44:29 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Borjas of the UFC

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Nurmagomedov vs. Song.

As the relentless UFC schedule marches forward, the octagon heads to Shanghai, China for back-to-back events. On Friday morning (5:00 am EST), the Road to UFC tournament will host its semi-finals, while Saturday morning (3:00 am EST) will play host to the big show, headlined by China’s own Song Yadong (12-4-1 UFC) looking for his 2nd win on Chinese soil in 2026. In order to do so, he will have to overcome the formidable challenge that Umar Nurmagomedov (8-1 UFC) represents. Top to bottom, the card is filled with Chinese athletes looking to earn their moment of glory in front of their home fans, beginning with the first fight of the night. Chinese Welterweight Ding Meng looks to make good on his 3rd octagon opportunity (0-2 UFC/DWCS) against Canadian newcomer Cam Nelson in the opening tilt at welterweight.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon!

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night – Nurmagomedov vs. Song: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Ding Meng ($8,300) vs. Cam Nelson ($7,900)

Fight Odds: -140 Meng vs. +114 Nelson
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)

When you talk about experience gaps heading into a UFC fight, this matchup with Ding Meng (0-1 UFC) and Cam Nelson (UFC Debut) has to be near the top of the list. While Meng Ding has only competed once inside the octagon in a losing effort, he has competed 45 times as a professional over the last 11 years. Cam Nelson is just 7-1 as a professional, and his pro debut was in 2023 (8 years after Meng Ding’s pro debut). All of the credible wins held between these men are on the side of the Chinese athlete, as Cam Nelson’s most notable win as a professional was his most recent win via TKO2 against a 13-8 opponent who typically competes at or below the featherweight division (145lbs). Meanwhile, Meng Ding has defeated a number of credible welterweight (170lbs) opponents like Mirali Huseynov (10-5 Pro), Kuerbanjiang Tuluosibake (34-20 Pro), Qi Wang (27-20 Pro), and Taiyilake Nueraji (12-1 Pro; 1-0 UFC).

From a stylistic standpoint, Ding Meng’s desire to attack the legs should be to his benefit in this matchup. Cam Nelson has allowed several opponents to get off on low kicks against him, and his desire to get in boxing range to land power shots often leaves weight loaded on his lead leg. Ding Meng has struggled with his two previous UFC/DWCS opponents because both fighters were comfortable operating on the back foot and had superior footwork and positioning. As a boxer, Ding Meng is quite average unless he is able to unload on a stationary target. He applies steady forward pressure, but he doesn’t show the corralling tools like round kicks to the head and body that he needs against a mover inside a big cage. Defensively, the Chinese athlete is just okay, relying on his toughness and durability more than his head movement or lateral footwork. The best path for Cam Nelson (3-0 career to the SUB prop) may be to test the takedown defense and grappling defense of his opponent (2-4 career to the SUB prop), as he is a BJJ brown belt in the Renzo Gracie system.

Cam Nelson looks a bit cleaner and more polished on film, but he is doing so against older, badly outmatched opponents and still getting touched cleanly on the chin at times. Ding Meng has been stress tested by many higher-level opponents, and he is unlikely to fold in the same fashion Nelson’s previous opponents have. I expect the early boxing exchanges to be competitive, but I see Ding Meng chopping away at the calf, picking up the pace on his opponent, and overwhelming him with forward pressure and strikes in the back half of the fight.

Prediction: Ding Meng defeats Cam Nelson via TKO2/3

Julia Polastri ($8,900) vs. Jingnan Xiong ($7,300)

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