DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC 251 Fight Island 3
Welcome to the Quick Picks version of UFC Fight Island 3!
Our last event in Fight Island takes place Saturday, headlined by former Middleweight champion Robert Whittaker against another tough challenger in Darren Till.
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DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC 251 Fight Island 3
Khamzat Chimaev, 9.8k
In one of the best MMA debuts of 2020, Khamzat Chimaev absolutely dominated John Phillips at Fight Island, finishing him with a submission in the second round.
He’ll get a quick jump back into action Saturday against Rhys McKee, a much smaller opponent than Chimaev has recently faced. Chimaev fought Phillips at Middleweight, but will be dropping down to Welterweight for this matchup, while McKee will be stepping up from his traditional class of Lightweight.
It’s an apparent mismatch, and Chimaev is a massive favorite at -1250, with an ITD line of -455. Even though Chimaev is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.8k, he is clearly the top target on the slate and our projections indicate a very strong chance that he can top 100 points in a victory.
Whether you are focused on safety in cash games, or upside in large-field tournaments, Chimaev should be on your radar.
Tom Aspinall, 8.8k
A newcomer to the UFC’s Heavyweight division, Tom Aspinall has won each of his fights inside the distance on the regional scene, and he’ll look to repeat that result Saturday against Jake Collier.
Prior to the weigh-ins, Aspinall was a moderate favorite, but Collier looked like a different human on the scales, a far cry from his figure that we once saw when he competed in the Middleweight division.
The betting line took action immediately, pushing Apsinall up to a -250 favorite, with an ITD line of -113. For a reasonable price of 8.8k on DraftKings, Apsinall is clearly one of the higher upside targets on the MMA slate.
There is certainly some risk with this play, but our projections indicate that Apsinall has a very strong chance to end up on the winning lineup if he can earn the victory, and with a -250 line to win, he’s a fighter who’s worthy of investment on DraftKings.
Jai Herbert, 7.7k
In order to pay up for some of the elite favorites on the board, you will need to save salary in at least a couple of places, and one of the better options on the board is Jai Herbert at 7.7k.
Herbert is making his UFC debut against Francisco Trinaldo, who is a tough opponent, but Herbert is only a +108 underdog in this matchup and should carry some advantages at range.
Herbert has a seven inch reach advantage against Trinaldo and has shown effective volume and power on the regional scene, earning several wins by knockout. Trinaldo will be looking to close the distance and land takedowns or power strikes.
While Herbert is not necessarily expected to finish the fight, the projections indicate he has a better chance to win than many others in his surrounding price range, and he’s in a decent spot if you need to save salary on this DraftKings MMA slate.
Ramazan Emeev, 9.4k
On a massive 15-fight DraftKings MMA slate, it will be difficult to use all 30 fighters, which means we need to cut down our player pool somehow.
Our projections like many fighters in the top tier of pricing, and there are a few standouts, including Chimaev, Wood and Gustafsson.
Ramazan Emeev is priced up at 9.4k, and even though he is a heavy -400 favorite, his chances of ending up on the optimal lineup are low. Emeev is only +280 ITD and he has only scored 71, 65 and 54 points in his three DraftKings wins.
We’d be looking for a score of 100 points at least at 9.4k, and the odds of that outcome occurring are simply not strong enough to make a real investment in Emeev.
DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC 251 Fight Island 3
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