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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 27th - Page Two

by JeffElJefe Last Updated 2014-12-27 23:25:53

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Indiana at Brooklyn

Indiana Brooklyn
Article Image Vegas Total 192 Article Image Vegas Total 192
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 95.50 Team Proj. 97.00
Team Pace 94.96 Team Pace 94.31
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill C.J. Watson Solomon Hill David West Roy Hibbert Proj Starter Jarrett Jack Sergey Karasev Joe Johnson Kevin Garnett Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 25 17 20 22 10 Opp. Season 24 12 2 3 27
Opp. Last 7 22 6 10 15 28 Opp. Last 7 11 2 24 10 15

Indiana

Until the Pacers release their lineup, a lot will be up in the air. Roy Hibbert, Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Miles are all questionable to play and George Hill is on the back end of a back-to-back after recently returning from his injury, so there could end up being a value play or two in this one. This is one of the lowest over/unders of the night but Brooklyn is below average at defending four of the five positions.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Solomon Hill — If Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles or George Hill miss this game, Solomon Hill will be all but guaranteed 30+ minutes and at $3,700 on DK he would provide some nice salary relief.

Lavoy Allen — This would depend on Hibbert missing the game, but we’ve already seen Allen do well with extended minutes in Hibbert’s absence.

Brooklyn

The Nets are also dealing with injuries of their own. Deron Williams and Brook Lopez have been coming off the bench in their recent returns from injuries while Jarrett Jack and Mason Plumlee have been outstanding as their replacements in the starting lineup. The Pacers have been weak against point guards and centers, so clarity there is going to be important.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Jarrett Jack — In his last four games, Jack has averaged over 35 minutes and more than 30 FD points per game. If he remains in the starting lineup for another game he would be a must-play.

Mason Plumlee — It would be surprising to see many people roster Plumlee at his DraftKings price of $7,900, but on FanDuel he’s still a good play. In his past eight games he hasn’t fallen below 30 FD points and he has reached 45 twice.

Atlanta at Milwaukee

Atlanta Milwaukee
Article Image Vegas Total 203 Article Image Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd -4.50 Vegas Sprd 4.50
Team Proj. 104 Team Proj. 99.5
Team Pace 95.99 Team Pace 96.56
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver DeMarre Carroll Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Kendall Marshall Brandon Knight Giannis Antetokounmpo Johnny O’Bryant Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 17 16 26 6 25 Opp. Season 4 28 15 12 9
Opp. Last 7 13 20 1 18 18 Opp. Last 7 8 29 17 8 24

Atlanta

There wasn’t a single Hawks player that played more than 30 minutes in last night’s blowout loss to the Bucks. Everyone should be well-rested, including Jeff Teague who made his return to the starting lineup. After being blown out by the Bucks in Atlanta, the Hawks will have a shot at payback, but this time in Milwaukee. The blowout makes it hard to be able to use much from last night’s game to help identify players to target today.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap — Millsap won’t be facing much resistance if it’s Johnny O’Bryant that he’s matched up with again tonight. You should feel confident targeting him in your cash games but at his current price there isn’t much room for upside.

Milwaukee

The Bucks are a team with ever-changing rotations that leads to unpredictable production. This is not a team that I ever recommend targeting in cash games. Despite solid games from Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudley just yesterday against this same team, I can’t recommend anyone because of the randomness.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

Philadelphia at Utah

Philadelphia Utah
Article Image Vegas Total 195 Article Image Vegas Total 195
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 92.75 Team Proj. 102.25
Team Pace 99.34 Team Pace 92.41
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Jakarr Sampson Robert Covington Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Nerlens Noel Proj Starter Trey Burke Alec Burks Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Enes Kanter
Opp. Season 13 10 12 25 4 Opp. Season 11 29 30 13 22
Opp. Last 7 21 23 5 1 29 Opp. Last 7 6 21 26 3 9

Philadelphia

The 76ers are playing way down in pace as underdogs tonight against the Utah Jazz. The Jazz are above-average at defending every position except power forwards, so you’ll want to avoid this team tonight for the most part. Robert Covington has cooled off just in time for his price to go up, but there’s still one play that I really like on DraftKings tonight.

Elite Plays

Tony Wroten — This is a DraftKings-specific play, but Wroten at $4,300 might be the best tournament play of the night. He almost reached 9x his salary last night against the Blazers, and he’s capable of that at this price on any night whether he’s coming off the bench or in the starting lineup. His price will even tempt people to use him in cash games, but that is pretty risky considering he played 30 minutes against Boston a few games ago and returned owners 4.5 points.

Secondary Plays

None

Utah

The Sixers play at a fast pace and are the second-worst rebounding team in the NBA, which is why the Jazz are going to be popular plays tonight. The Jazz just finished a six game road trip and will be at home for one game against the Sixers before heading back on the road to L.A. They’ve been playing well lately, winning three of their last four games, including their last game which was at Memphis.

Elite Plays

Gordon Hayward — The Sixers struggle against wing players more than anything else, and good shooters really give them trouble. This is the type of game where Gordon should approach 30 points and flirt with a triple-double and he will be a player that I target heavily in both cash games and GPPs.

Derrick Favors — The discount that you can get Favors at on FanDuel should be enough to get people to want to take advantage of this matchup, but his recent production could keep his ownership levels lower than they should be. Looking at his game log since his return from injury, it’s easily explainable. He struggled in his first game back against Miami, ranked #1 against power forwards. His second game back, against Orlando, he dominated with 23 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks. His third game against Charlotte was the back end of a back-to-back and he only played 18 minutes. His last game was against Memphis, one of the best defensive teams in the league and he struggled, but that was five days ago and he should be in line for heavy minutes in a great matchup.

Trey Burke — He’s not playing well right now, but this seems like another pricing error by DK with his price at the minimum. Plug him in there and ignore him on FD.

Secondary Plays

None

New York at Sacramento

New York Sacramento
Article Image Vegas Total Article Image Vegas Total 202
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd -6.50
Team Proj. Team Proj. 104.25
Team Pace 92.09 Team Pace 96.24
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Tim Hardaway Carmelo Anthony Amar’e Stoudemire Samuel Dalembert Proj Starter Darren Collison Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Jason Thompson Reggie Evans
Opp. Season 15 27 7 29 3 Opp. Season 10 22 1 21 14
Opp. Last 7 25 24 20 19 6 Opp. Last 7 30 8 3 13 23

New York

We already know that the Knicks will be without Quincy Acy due to suspension, but we’re also hearing reports that Amar’e Stoudemire is having a hard time recovering with the minutes that he’s been playing. It will be interesting to see who picks up the slack in the short term, with Travis Wear and Jason Smith seemingly the likely beneficiaries.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Jason Smith — He’s the bare minimum on DK and should see north of 20 minutes tonight. You’d need him to get at least 18 fantasy points, and he’s averaged more than that in each of his last two games. This would be a tougher matchup if Cousins plays, but he also might be needed for more minutes in that scenario, so it’s not the end of the world either.

Jose Calderon — The minutes have certainly been there and the production has been there in spurts. Calderon does seem to do better against teams that like to run, and the Kings did fire Mike Malone partly because they want to run an up-tempo offense now.

Sacramento

DeMarcus Cousins sat out last night with a stomach virus and is questionable to play tonight. The Kings have struggled all year without him in their lineup and last night was no different. Darren Collison and Rudy Gay would receive usage boosts if he is unable to go again with Reggie Evans likely taking his spot again in the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Reggie Evans — In place of Cousins, Evans played 32 minutes and pulled in 16 rebounds while scoring 11 points. He’s the bare minimum on DraftKings and would be a great high-upside GPP play if Cousins is still sick. The Knicks don’t have any quality bigs outside of Amar’e Stoudemire and he is even likely to see fewer minutes than usual.

Minnesota at Golden State

Minnesota Golden State
Article Image Vegas Total 216 Article Image Vegas Total 216
Vegas Sprd 17.0 Vegas Sprd -17.0
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 116.5
Team Pace 98.57 Team Pace 100.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Zach LaVine Shabazz Muhammad Andrew Wiggins Thaddeus Young Gorgui Dieng Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Marreese Speights
Opp. Season 23 20 17 23 1 Opp. Season 18 25 29 18 23
Opp. Last 7 24 17 19 21 7 Opp. Last 7 7 10 25 23 17

Minnesota

The Timberwolves travel to Oakland to play tonight and will try not to get blown out by quite possibly the best team in the NBA. Losers of seven straight, they enter as 16 point underdogs in the game with the highest over/under. If they can keep this close, there will be great plays on both sides.

Elite Plays

Shabazz Muhammad — If you want a safe, cash game play for some exposure to this game then go with Muhammad. He’s going to play heavy minutes whether this is a blowout or not, and he’s been regularly hitting value (until last night) since the Corey Brewer trade.

Secondary Plays

Mo Williams — Stephen Curry has been receiving praise for his increased effort on defense this year which actually started on Team USA this summer. But watch the tape and look at the numbers; this is still a team that really struggles against point guards. Curry often gets lost on defense going under high screens against good shooters and over-extending with help defense leaving his man open on skip passes. Williams is the kind of player that will knock down those open shots and can get hot in a hurry.

Golden State

The best record in the NBA versus the worst record in the Western Conference, everyone will concede that this is going to be a blowout. As recently as two games ago though, the Kobe-less Lakers beat the Warriors in a game that was projected to be a blowout also, and it was, but the Lakers were the team that won. Of course the Warriors could and should blow out the Timberwolves, but by no means should we just assume that they will.

Elite Plays

Draymond Green — People are already set to bail on him with the return of David Lee, but Draymond Green’s minutes are about as safe as Stephen Curry’s. His price on DK makes him a near lock for me in cash games since he’s averaging close to 5x his salary and the matchup against Thaddeus Young is a good one — a matchup that Kenneth Faried took advantage of with 26 points and 25 rebounds last night.

Harrison Barnes — Here’s another blowout-proof play that you can pair with Muhammad. Despite being a starter, Barnes is often on the floor with the bench players at the end of games that are already decided because Steve Kerr would rather rest Andre Iguodala. Look no further than the Laker game where Barnes played 28 minutes and Iggy only played 15.

Secondary Plays

None

About the Author

JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe

Working in the Fantasy Sports industry since 2012, Jeff has witnessed Daily Fantasy Sports from every angle: business, content, and as a player. He’s been featured in the New York Times, the L.A. Times, numerous books including Dan Barbarisi’s “Dueling with Kings”, and numerous documentaries including Jason Baumgardner’s “Perfect Lineup”.

On the business side he worked with several startup operators in direct competition with FanDuel and DraftKings. Jeff brought a player’s perspective to the product side of things and was innovative with new features that you see the bigger sites now implementing today.

Content has always been a passion for him, so the opportunity to write for RotoGrinders early in his career was something to jump at. Jeff hosted popular shows for MLB, NBA, and NFL content and often focused on teaching a contrarian approach long before it was cool to do so.

Jeff’s run as a player has been capped off by what many refer to as the best year in DFS tournament history. A baseball live final win (DK), a football Million dollar score, and 2 2nd place finishes in FD live finals.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter: @JeffKCollins