NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Detroit at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -10, 200 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Dellavedova-Miller-James-Love-Thompson
| Detroit | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.12 | Team Pace | 94.57 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Matthew Dellavedova | Mike Miller | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 26 | 14 | 16 | 16 | Opp. Season | 14 | 21 | 6 | 28 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 19 | 2 | 30 | 1 | |
Detroit
As expected, the Pistons inserted Greg Monroe into the starting lineup on Friday after releasing Josh Smith. Monroe played well and was a big reason for them winning that night against the Pacers. Today the Cavs will be a much tougher test, but “addition by subtraction” could result in Detroit turning their season around to make a surprising playoff push.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe — His price of $7,300 on DraftKings isn’t adjusted to the Josh Smith trade. In a lesser role this season, Monroe is already averaging 30 DK points per game. He’s not the safest cash game play since Kevin Love will pull him away from the basket and could hinder his rebounding opportunities, but even in just his first game post Josh Smith we saw his upside as he ended up with 48.25 DK points.
Cleveland
Kyrie Irving was cleared to play on Friday, but decided against it himself. He is listed as questionable to play today, but he should be good to go. Tristan Thompson moved into the starting lineup one game later than most expected and performed very well in the 40 minutes he played. With the big front court that Detroit has, Thompson should be in the starting lineup again.
Elite Plays
LeBron James — Playing the “early” slate of games allows you to slot James in as your small forward on what might be the toughest day all year to find a small forward that you feel good about. Josh Smith at least had the physical ability to hinder LeBron some, but Kyle Singler or more likely Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will have little chance at all.
Secondary Plays
None
Houston at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -2, 196 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Joseph-Green-Anderson-Duncan-Splitter
| Houston | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.46 | Team Pace | 95.13 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Cory Joseph | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 11 | Opp. Season | 3 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 30 | 11 | 2 | 26 | |
Houston
Josh Smith made his debut off the bench for the Rockets on Friday and ended up playing more minutes than expected because of Dwight Howard needing to sit with foul trouble and the game going into overtime. Houston did win that game in Memphis to move to a league-best 11-2 on the road. With the new faces on this team, we have to be careful to adjust our projections with new roles in mind.
Elite Plays
Josh Smith — When Josh Smith is motivated, he’s a very good player. After a pep talk from Stan Van Gundy, he went on a stretch of games earlier in the season where he was a must-play for a while. On a new team now and looking to prove his worth, he is going to be aggressive. This was evident in his first team as he led the Rockets in field goal attempts — yes, he even took more shots than James Harden. During this early period of Smith being aggressive, Harden will lose a little bit of upside. He still has a high floor because of how often the ball is in his hands, but I don’t think we’ll be seeing him put up 40 actual points every other game for the time being like he had been recently.
Secondary Plays
Dwight Howard — We’re still getting a discount on Howard as a sub $10,000 player on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is a double-double machine and a safe bet for your cash games.
San Antonio
The Spurs will be shorthanded again today, but exactly to what extent is always up in the air. For now, we know that Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are out. That means that the minutes for Corey Joseph and Marco Belinelli will be there, who have both been useful salary relief options lately. The Spurs are one of the better teams overall to target today with the pace of play and usage bumps due to the injuries.
Elite Plays
Marco Belinelli — $4,300 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings, if he’s in the starting lineup he’s pretty much plug-n-play in this matchup on a short slate. Kyle Anderson has been starting sometimes, but lately he plays very little and even got pulled early in favor of Marco on Friday, so I’d only downgrade him slightly if he comes off the bench.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan — This is a tough matchup for Duncan, but he will have the ball in his hands plenty and remains a fine cash game play. This would be his third game in four days, so as always, be sure that he’s in the lineup before you lock him in.
Manu Ginoboli — On DraftKings you’re able to get Manu for $5,000 tonight and would be expecting him to get you 25 DK points in cash games. Not only is that below his average on the season, but it’s very unlikely that he drops below 20 with Parker and Leonard out. Also, this matchup is one of the best of the slate: Houston gives up 25.64% more fantasy points than the league average to shooting guards.
Oklahoma City at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -5.5, 213 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Jones-Ibaka-Adams
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Oklahoma City | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.8 | Team Proj. | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.39 | Team Pace | 96.76 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Perry Jones | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 14 | 18 | 10 | 5 | Opp. Season | 22 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 18 | 7 | 27 | 13 | |
Oklahoma City
It seems like Kevin Durant is close to returning from his ankle sprain that he suffered against the Warriors. He participated in shootaround on Friday, but there is no official word on his status for tonight as of Sunday morning. His return would negatively impact the value of Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams tonight, but Russell Westbrook would remain as safe as they come.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook — There’s little to add to what has been said about Westbrook all year. He is still a guy that you can plug into your cash game lineups and know that he will pay it off most of the time. He’s not a matchup-based player, though this is a very good one.
Secondary Plays
Steven Adams — In only 31 minutes against the Spurs on Christmas, Adams surprised a lot of people with nearly a 50 point fantasy day. Ever since Durant got hurt again, the Thunder are using Adams a lot in their offense in pick-n-rolls with Westbrook and even some post up isolations. These opportunities are going to diminish when Durant returns, but until then Adams has a nice floor of around 20 fantasy points.
Dallas
It’s too early to set everything in stone, but it appears that the addition of Rajon Rondo has really dropped the fantasy value of Chandler Parsons. Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki are producing similarly to what they were before the trade, and Tyson Chandler has seen a slight bump. Rondo himself has done well, but his rebounding numbers appear unlikely to reach double digits as often as they did in Boston.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Monta Ellis — While Dirk is still there for the big, clutch shots, Ellis is relied on to carry the bulk of the scoring load for Dallas. That hasn’t changed with the addition of Rondo, and I expect that more scoring opportunities will open up for him as the two build chemistry.
Rajon Rondo — Rondo’s ability to fill up multiple categories of the stat sheet makes him a prototypical cash game play. He’s at best the third-best point guard option tonight, but on a site like DraftKings or Fantasy Aces that gives you the flexibility to play more than two, Rondo is a solid play.
Toronto at Denver
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2.5, 210 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
| Toronto | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.51 | Team Pace | 98.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 18 | 16 | 26 | 24 | Opp. Season | 16 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 25 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 19 | |
Toronto
The Raptors rode Kyle Lowry to an impressive road win against the Clippers yesterday in what had been a very tough matchup for him in the past. The six game road trip continues tonight in Denver as the Raptors continue to play extremely well without DeMar DeRozan. Landry Fields has been dealing with concussion symptoms and James Johnson has benefited in his absence.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
James Johnson / Terrence Ross — Small forward is such a thin position today that Johnson and Ross are both in consideration. Johnson gets a boost if Fields sits again but is better suited for GPPs. Ross is a cash game play that you can use to somewhat punt the position and is likely to see the better matchup of Aaron Afflalo.
Denver
The Nuggets have been in need of something to turn their season around, and the re-emergence of Kenneth Faried might just be it. Coach Brian Shaw has rightly been criticized this season, but calling Faried into his office to point out that he’s going to have a lot of success by attacking the offensive glass has resulted in 46 points and 39 rebounds for Faried in his last two games.
Elite Plays
Kenneth Faried — I won’t be alone, but Faried is my favorite play of the day and will likely be in 100% of my lineups. What his incredible play lately (noted above) has done is to lock him in for 30+ minutes per game for the foreseeable future. Being a point-per-minute player, that alone should make him a lock to reach value, but his new-found aggressiveness gives him more upside for the salary than any player in his price range.
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler — $5,600 on FanDuel, he had been in a four game lull before coming out of it against Minnesota on Friday. With Danilo Gallinari out with a knee injury, Chandler will see well over 30 minutes most nights as a secondary scoring option in the Nuggets’ offense.
New York at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -12, 196 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Hardaway-Anthony-Smith-Aldrich
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Robinson-Freeland
| New York | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.09 | Team Pace | 96.39 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Tim Hardaway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Cole Aldrich | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | Thomas Robinson | Joel Freeland | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 4 | 25 | 5 | 19 | Opp. Season | 10 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 11 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 23 | |
New York
This is the second game in as many nights for the Knicks, and the first game went into overtime. Carmelo Anthony despite dealing with injuries all season played a game-high 46 minutes, so his projections should be significantly downgraded for tonight as he is unlikely to play heavy minutes. That bodes well for the fantasy value of guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and possibly J.R. Smith if he were to play.
Elite Plays
Tim Hardaway Jr. — The Knicks don’t have many scorers healthy and on the roster. I’d expect the Knicks to rest Anthony some after playing 46 minutes last night, but Hardaway Jr. only played 30 (and is young and healthy) and will be able to pick up the slack. You can get away with not playing him for $6,100 on DraftKings, but the $5,400 tag on FanDuel makes him nearly impossible to fade.
Secondary Plays
Cole Aldrich — He fouled out in 24 minutes last night, otherwise he could have been in store for a much bigger game, but 33.75 DK points in limited time shows you what he can do. Quincy Acy comes back from suspension, but that will impact Smith more than Aldrich.
Portland
LaMarcus Aldridge is expected to miss this game due to illness, and with Robin Lopez out and Chris Kaman only questionable to play, the Portland front court is extremely weak. Luckily they are facing an equally weak Knicks front court. Damian Lillard benefits the most from these injuries and will see an incredible high usage rate.
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard — With LaMarcus Aldridge out, Lillard has a usage rate of 31.6. To give you an idea how high that is, it’s exactly the usage rate that James Harden has this season. I will be paying up for point guards today despite the value out there and Lillard will be a primary target.
Secondary Plays
Joel Freeland — Freeland is the min price on DK and is coming off of a game where he set his career high in rebounds. Even with Chris Kaman returning, there will be plenty of minutes to go around in the front court.
Chris Kaman — His minutes are capped at around 20, but he’s going to go off one of these games. If you want a narrative, his wife just had a baby (which is why he missed the last game) and we could see an inspired performance because of it (see: T.Y. Hilton).