NBA Tool Analysis: Vegas Odds
Hello Grinders!
If you’re reading this, then you know that RotoGrinders has some of the best free content in the industry. The free daily research tools being offered can do wonders for your bankroll. Every Thursday, I’ll be highlighting one of our free research tools and will show you how to you can use it to identify players that should be on your NBA radar.
The Vegas Odds and Lines tool is something I use in my research every day. Vegas odds are the best projection model in the world in my opinion, and you can use them to your advantage.
Thursdays are usually slow nights in the NBA, but we can still go over how to utilize the tool to target players. As you can see from the chart below, we color code it so that you can easily pick out ideal spots to target. On larger slate nights, there will be a smattering of red throughout the chart. Avoid those games/teams in your cash games.
Tonight, the Blazers are predicted to be the highest scoring team, which means we should be targeting their players first. The more actual points a team score, the more fantasy points they score. Pretty simple.
Damian Lillard didn’t suddenly become a bad shooter – he got back to his usual form against the Cavs with 48.7 FanDuel points (he hit five threes) on Tuesday. Tonight he gets to face off against the older, slower and smaller Jameer Nelson. Lillard appears to be a lock to be the highest-scoring PG tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge is only averaging six rebounds a game, his lowest total since his rookie year, coming after he averaged a career-high 11.1 boards last season. I think tonight is the night he gets back into the double-digit rebound category. This game is going to be fast paced with a ton of shots. More shots means more misses, which obviously means more rebounds. Now, the Mavs may put Chandler on Aldridge to start, but I think he will still see a good amount of time versus Dirk Nowitzki too. Like Nelson above, Dirk is older and slower. Advantage Aldridge.
You’re also going to want to get some exposure to the Mavericks lineup as well. There are two players that really stand out to me based on usage and price.
Monta Ellis is seeing his usage go through the roof. Jameer Nelson has become a bystander in this Mavs offense, so Ellis is shouldering the load – he’s currently leading the Mavs in assists with 5.3 per game. He will at times be matched up against Lillard. We all know Lillard is an elite scorer, but his defense leaves something to be desired. He couldn’t guard a chair to put it bluntly. I think Ellis is the man for the Mavs tonight and puts up a big score.
Chandler Parsons is the ultimate cash-game player. He is usually fairly priced, which he is again tonight. He also plays big minutes and fills the stat sheet in all categories. Some people might shy away from him because of the matchup with Batum, but that won’t be the right choice in my eyes. If we take a look at the game logs from last year, you will see that Parsons averaged 33 FanDuel points in four games against Portland. He should be able to exceed that tonight, as he is now seeing a slight uptick in shots per game with the Mavs.
Taking a look at the Spurs/Rockets game, there are a few players to target and a few players to avoid based on the Vegas line.
James Harden has the ball in his hands on what seems like every possession. His getting an absurd amount of touches, but I’m not complaining one bit. His FanDuel price has been slow to increase as well even after three straight 50+ fantasy point games. The $10,300 price tag seems like a bargain. If this game stays close like Vegas expects, it’s going to be Harden with the ball in his hands, raking up the fantasy points in the fourth quarter.
Kostas Papanikolaou is someone you’re going to need to roster to fit Harden in tonight. He’s a great value even if Terrance Jones plays tonight, as he has seen at least 20 minutes in every game this season. His minutes jumped up to 37 against Miami with Jones out. So, keep an eye on the lineup situation around lineup lock. Kostas is close to a must-play tonight and he will probably be 100% owned if Jones is out. Don’t get cute with this one though. Play the Papa!!
Everyone knows that Patrick Beverley is an elite defender, but the team defense for Houston has been a top five unit so far in this young season.
This makes Tony Parker a fade for me tonight. The Rockets and Spurs faced off three times last season after Beverley had asserted himself into the starting lineup and became the elite defender that he is now. Here are Parker’s FanDuel point outputs for those games, 15.6, 22.2 and 20.3. For me, it’s a big “no thanks” when thinking about rostering Parker tonight.
Well, there you have it. That’s how I use the Vegas Lines tool to start my thought process for my research. Hopefully this information helps you tonight and going forward. Check back next week as I highlight another free RG research tool. As always, feel free to leave a comment or reach out to me on twitter @Socky21.