NFL PrizePicks: Broncos vs. Saints Player Predictions for Thursday Night Football
In this space, we’ll look at the PrizePicks board for the Broncos vs. Saints and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL fantasy pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the number offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!
You can also subscribe to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package to get access to our fantasy pick’em tool for more PrizePicks picks today.
We have a typical ugly Thursday Night Football game between two coaches who love to blitz a lot and will be facing rookie QBs. The game total is only 37, but the Broncos are only small favorites, so we should see a competitive game where both teams pound their game plans pretty hard.
PrizePicks Predictions for Broncos vs. Saints
- Alvin Kamara MORE/LESS 39.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
- Spencer Rattler MORE/LESS 199.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
- Devaughn Vele MORE/LESS 39.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
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Alvin Kamara MORE/LESS 39.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
It’s the Saints on a short week with a rookie QB making his second career start. This screams an Alvin Kamara game. We should like to attack his 79.5 DEMON rush yards projections, but his receiving DEMON is much juicier, according to RotoGrinders projections, which have him logging 43.5 receiving yards. Usually, we don’t love receiving backs to catch balls from mobile QBs, but Kamara saw a whopping 8 targets in Week 6 with Rattler at QB, which is in line with the 8 and 9 he saw in the 2 prior games. Kamara catching footballs is baked into the Saints’ game plan. So much so that 39.5 is just way too low for a DEMON projection.
- PLAY: Kamara MORE Than 39.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
Spencer Rattler MORE/LESS 199.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
Spencer Rattler showed some competency in his debut, but the Broncos have been a tough defense to start the 2024 NFL season. Rattler is a scrambler though, and the Broncos have the highest blitz rate in the league (41.8%), according to Pro Football Reference. Mobile QBs can be disastrous against the blitz when they’re young because they can take too many sacks and gunsling too often. But mobile QBs are usually better on the run for compiling passing yards. The Broncos will surely have Rattler on the run. We shouldn’t love this play for DFS because there is a lot of turnover potential in Rattler’s game, but PrizePicks is saying that we only need 200 yards to get there. As 3.0-point dogs, we should attack this soft projection in a dome where games tend to play faster. RotoGrinders has Rattler projected for 238.5 passing yards, so we want a lot of exposure.
Playing only one contest, we should prioritize the Kamara DEMONs, but playing 3+ contests, we should get to Rattler next.
- PLAY: Rattler MORE Than 199.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
Devaughn Vele MORE/LESS 39.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
I’m not gonna lie. I don’t know anything about Devaughn Vele, but without Josh Reynolds, the Broncos have really incorporated him into the game plan. Vele saw ~68 air yards on 6 targets on a 61.8% snap count in Week 6. Not knowing much about him is all the more reason to just trust the RotoGrinders projections, which have him logging 45.1 receiving yards.
- PLAY: Vele MORE Than 39.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
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