NFL PrizePicks: Dolphins vs. Rams Player Predictions for Monday Night Football
In this space, we’ll look at the PrizePicks board for the Dolphins vs. Rams and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL fantasy pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the number offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!
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PrizePicks isn’t giving us much to work with. We have an exciting game on the docket with a 48.5-point total and just a 1.5-point spread. These are two highly concentrated offenses, but the thresholds to collect on DEMONs are very high for: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp catching the ball; Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa throwing the ball; as well as Kyren Williams and DeVon Achane running the ball. But there are DEMONs worth attacking in the two RBs catching the ball out of the backfield and Raheem Mostert spelling for 8-12 carries. That said, I don’t think I’m playing more than 5 contests tonight, and I’m keeping it cheap at maybe a half-unit per contest. The picks in this article are listed by confidence. I’d have to get to 5 contests to touch the Mostert DEMON, but it’s worth noting.
PrizePicks Predictions for Dolphins vs. Rams
- Kyren Williams MORE/LESS 24.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
- DeVon Achane MORE/LESS 59.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
- Raheem Mostert MORE/LESS 49.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
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Kyren Williams MORE/LESS 24.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
With Nacua and Kupp back in action, our gut would say that Williams stays in his lane running the football. But we’ve seen him get a total of 10 targets over the last 2 games, and the Rams have won both games, affirming the shift in usage. And this isn’t odd, as we saw him get 4 targets per game in 2023. The swings are huge, as he can see 7 targets or he can see 0, but we should see Williams get some checkdowns against a Dolphins defense that has been blitzing 27.2% of the time. Overall, 24.5 is just too low of a projection to ignore. RotoGrinders only has Williams’ median projection at 16.9 receiving yards, but there’s a wide range of outcomes where the ceiling and situation dictate that we should have some exposure to this DEMON.
- PLAY: Williams MORE Than 24.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
DeVon Achane MORE/LESS 59.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
Tagovailoa is a big question mark, for sure. We don’t know if he’s throwing the ball 35 times or 28 times. But we do know that he looks to Achane a lot. Achane has seen a whopping 30 targets in Tagovailoa’s 4 starts this season — 7 and 7 in the first two, with 8 and 8 in the most recent. I hate to use the word “guarantee,” but this role is something to embrace when we take risks for big rewards on PrizePicks through DEMONs. Achane has averaged 63.25 receiving yards when Tagovailoa started this season, so 59.5 isn’t a crazy projection to attack at all. Add the question mark of Hill and his wrist, and we should see Achane continue to get high usage in the Dolphins passing attack. RotoGrinders has Achane very conservatively projected for 45.5 receiving yards on the evening.
- PLAY: Achane MORE Than 59.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)
Raheem Mostert MORE/LESS 49.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
Mostert doesn’t play many snaps, nor does he catch many passes. When he’s on the field, it’s to run the football, and he’s hit at least 50 rush yards doing so in 3 of 5 games. Even in the 3 losses in which he’s played, he’s hit 50 rush yards twice. With a tight spread, it’s highly unlikely that the Dolphins will abandon running the football with him despite being slight underdogs. RotoGrinders has Mostert projected for 42.4 rush yards, but let’s be honest here; he’s rushing for 50+ or under 20, depending on the blocking in front of him. He is another player with a wide range of outcomes, but we’re not working with much.
- PLAY: Mostert MORE Than 49.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
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