Noto's NFL DFS Core Plays: Week 2
Week 1 Recap
This is a safe space for anyone that suffered the bloodbath that was Week 1.
If you had a bad week of betting and/or DFS, you are not alone. I bricked my main slate lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings, I went 3-10 in my bets (listen to the OG podcast each week if you have time), and my beloved Jaguars got smoked by the Houston freakin Texans. It was not pretty for yours truly, but misery loves company. Many sharp DFS players struggled as well, which makes me feel a tad better. And hey, we can’t expect to win each and every week. Football is by far the most volatile sport and unlike NBA, MLB, and PGA, we only get 18 full NFL slates a season. If you had a good Week 1, let’s keep it rolling. If you struggled like myself, let’s bounce back with a bang in Week 2.
There is so much that we think we know about these NFL teams before the season starts and then Week 1 happens and we see how wrong we were about everything. At this point, we put far too much stock into everything that happened in Week 1, even though it’s an extremely small sample size. Would you change your opinion on LeBron James or the Lakers if they played poorly on opening night of the NBA season? Of course not. Do not fall into the trap of overreacting to what you saw last Sunday. There will be plenty of bounce-back performances in Week 2, both in terms of individual players and in terms of teams. We can use this to our advantage, as most will be unable to resist clicking on the players that crushed in Week 1.
Before we get into the slate, I want everyone to know that I am an open book. I update my rankings and core plays as often as possible and am using these picks in my lineups. I take my losses on the chin and don’t try to boast after a good week. And finally, one of the favorite parts about providing content is helping members any way that I can. If you want my advice on contest selection or bankroll management, send me a DM on Twitter or on Discord. If you are debating between a couple of running backs and need an unbiased third party to make the decision, I got your back (although, I’ll tell you to trust your gut more often than not). I love the community aspect of DFS and I love connecting with our premium members here at RotoGrinders.
Week 2 Breakdown
Ah… it feels so good to have that Week 1 recap out of the way. Out of sight, out of mind right?
My first reaction to the Week 2 slate was that there wasn’t nearly as much value as Week 1. This was to be expected, as salaries weren’t released weeks in advance and we haven’t had any major mid-week injuries that open up extreme value. For whatever reason, I have always had more success on weeks with sharper pricing. The more obvious the plays, the easier it is to build lineups. I like the weeks where I look at my lineup and want to puke. The lineup gag reflex also helps manage your bankroll. When every lineup you build looks like it could win a million dollars, you have no choice but to enter more and more contests. It’s a week where you have to make some difficult decisions and in my opinion, the tougher the decisions, the bigger edge we should have on the field.