Searching for a Specialist: PGA Championship
Aloha, RotoGrinders! Welcome to the first edition of Searching for a Specialist.
This weekly series will be nothing like the movie of a similar name, Searching for Bobby Fischer, except for the heavy use of numbers and strategy.
Instead of playing chess, we will be playing daily fantasy golf. I will dig through the catacombs of data to determine who should exceed expectations each week. I will be the weekly tour guide, but also hope to teach and help expand the way we all look at fantasy golf stats. Oldies like driving accuracy and greens in regulation can safely become a thing of the past.
In place of traditional outdated stats we will be using course-specific and tournament-specific stats. First we will look at performance on par 72 courses, bentgrass greens, long courses, and hard courses before finishing up with performance at major championships and links courses. Here we go.
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
Par 72 Courses
The first thing to look at is performance at par 72 courses. Past performance on par 72s and 70s are very indicative of future performance. Whistling Straits has four par 5s, making it a par 72.
Cutting out golfers that perform worse than expected on par 72s will eliminate quite a few golfers and give us a nice list to start the search for our specialist. What we are doing is looking at strokes gained on par 72 courses (sg:par72) and comparing that number to each golfer’s respective strokes gained (sg:total) over the last two years. These first five listed have the largest differential and then I will list out all other golfers that meet the criteria:
Marc Leishman (1.399 sg:par72 vs. 0.602 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (0.89 sg:par72 vs. 0.104 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (0.603 sg:par72 vs. -0.105 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (1.249 sg:par72 vs. 0.629 sg:total)
Zach Johnson (1.468 sg:par72 vs. 0.888 sg:total)
Everyone else that performs better on par 72s: Charley Hoffman, Jordan Spieth, Ian Poulter, Kevin Na, Jamie Donaldson, Phil Mickelson, David Toms, J.B. Holmes, Pat Perez, Sergio Garcia, Chesson Hadley, Gary Woodland, Nick Taylor, Davis Love III, Bill Haas, Dustin Johnson, Danny Lee, Matt Jones, Alex Cejka, Steven Bowditch, Jason Day, Jason Bohn, Boo Weekley, Y.E. Yang, Harris English, George McNeill, Hunter Mahan, Shawn Stefani, Sang-Moon Bae, Graeme McDowell, Geoff Ogilvy, Rory McIlroy, Charles Howell III, Brendon de Jonge, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Ryan Moore, Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, John Senden, Shane Lowry, Robert Streb, Padraig Harrington, Kevin Kisner, Martin Kaymer, Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Matt Kuchar.
We’ve already knocked out some big names like Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson, and others. This doesn’t mean these golfers can’t succeed this week. They just aren’t the specialist we’re looking for. We now have a list of 55 golfers.
Bentgrass Greens
If you’ve played real-life golf for a while, you know how much of a difference grass types and regional factors play into performance. Specifically, bentgrass greens like the ones at Whistling Straits are known to neutralize putting. You’ll often notice average or even poor traditional putters performing much better on bentgrass greens.
Of the 55 golfers left on our list, these are the ones that perform better on bentgrass greens (sg:bentgrass).
Rickie Fowler (1.717 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.73 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.495 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.542 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.301 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.433 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (0.771 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.104 sg:total)
Graeme McDowell (1.283 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.62 sg:total)
Other bentgrass specialists include: Martin Kaymer, Marc Leishman, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Danny Lee, Davis Love III, Dustin Johnson, Steven Bowditch, Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy, Padraig Harrington, Geoff Ogilvy, Jordan Spieth, Hunter Mahan, David Toms, Zach Johnson, Jamie Donaldson, Charles Howell III, Francesco Molinari, Shawn Stefani, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Bill Haas, Brendon de Jonge, John Senden, Sergio Garcia, Jason Bohn, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Kisner.
Long Courses
After two rounds of cuts, we are now down to 34 golfers. Next we will look at performance on long courses. If you glance at this week’s scorecard, you’ll notice Whistling Straits plays over 7,500 yards, which easily categorizes it as long.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking long courses = long hitters. Longer courses can often lead to longer approaches, which means proximity-to-hole numbers will be longer. Follow this trail a little further and it leads to longer putts. For that reason, long course performance weeds out golfers that just can’t stick their approach shots from long range or golfers that struggle with the flat stick.
Of the 35 golfers on our list, here are the nine golfers that don’t perform as well on long courses (sg:long):
Graeme McDowell (0.574 sg:long vs. 0.62 sg:total)
John Senden (0.213 sg:long vs. 0.456 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (0.31 sg:long vs. 0.572 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (0.348 sg:long vs. 0.629 sg:total)
Padraig Harrington (-1.095 sg:long vs. -0.792 sg:total)
Sergio Garcia (1.369 sg:long vs. 1.7 sg:total)
Martin Kaymer (-0.111 sg:long vs. 0.244 sg:total)
David Toms (-0.065 sg:long vs. 0.296 sg:total)
Tony Finau (0.147 sg:long vs. 0.542 sg:total)
Hard Courses
After stage three, we are left with 26 golfers. Now let’s look at performance on challenging courses (sg:hard). To qualify, the field average for the week needs to be 1-over-par or higher.
Whistling Straits is not the toughest task, but the PGA of America often sets up the PGA Championship to play at 2-over-par or harder. Assuming this week will play tough, we can eliminate 10 more golfers:
Zach Johnson (0.678 sg:hard vs. 0.888 sg:total)
Charles Howell III (0.216 sg:hard vs. 0.549 sg:total)
Brendon de Jonge (-0.116 sg:hard vs. 0.241 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (1.672 sg:hard vs. 2.266 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (-0.24 sg:hard vs. 0.602 sg:total)
Five more golfers get eliminated because they haven’t even played 20 rounds on hard courses since the beginning of 2013-14. They are Shawn Stefani, Danny Lee, Davis Love III, Shane Lowry, and Jason Bohn. This tells us all we need to know, as they will enter the week untested.
Rory is always a threat to win, so it’s hard to see him go. However, he’s been known to sign for some big numbers if the wind picks up or the course plays tough, in general. Add in his injury, and we’ll accept his departure in our search for a specialist.
Major Championships
This angle is a huge one. We could have led with this angle but it would have ruined the fun and narrowed down our list way too quickly. Contending on the biggest stages in golf is no easy task. Having just four chances a year to prove yourself, this list shows which golfers have the mental game to get it done.
We are narrowed down to 15 golfers and we can eliminate five more due to lack of recent major championship experience or poor performance in those majors. Those five golfers are Charley Hoffman, Steven Bowditch, Bill Haas, Jamie Donaldson, and Geoff Ogilvy.
Links Golf
Links golf is almost a different game entirely. It requires a new element of strategy. There are many debates on whether Whistling Straits is a true links golf experience. For that reason, I’ve saved this for the end, and made Ian Poulter the only victim of the links hammer. I never have problems removing Poulter from my list of targets.
List of Specialists
We’ve got a legitimate group of golfers here. The following list of nine golfers passed each leg of the test. You should feel confident that each will exceed their expectations this week.
Louis Oosthuizen
Rickie Fowler
Dustin Johnson
Jordan Spieth
Adam Scott
Phil Mickelson
Hunter Mahan
Justin Rose
Jason Day
The Specialist
After narrowing our list down to nine specialists, its now time to crown the top specialist of the week. That man is Louis Oosthuizen this week. Not only was he 6-for-6 this week, but he outperforms with each angle by more than half a stroke per round.
| Golfer | Par 72 | Bentgrass | Long Courses | Links | Majors | Hard Courses | Specialist Rating |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 2.02 | 1.79 | 1.2 | 1.17 |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.08 | 0.99 | 0.41 | 1.09 | 1.44 | 0.37 | 0.73 |
| Jordan Spieth | 0.48 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| Dustin Johnson | 0.27 | 0.46 | 0.06 | 1.41 | 0.9 | 1.04 | 0.69 |
| Phil Mickelson | 0.44 | 0.12 | 0.78 | 0.39 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| Adam Scott | 0.14 | 0.36 | 0.03 | 1.41 | 0.78 | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| Ian Poulter | 0.48 | 0.87 | 0.24 | -0.04 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Hunter Mahan | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.58 | 0.98 | 0.3 | 0.42 |
| Justin Rose | 0.15 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.73 | 0.11 | 0.4 |
| Martin Kaymer | 0.08 | 0.61 | -0.36 | 1.29 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Shane Lowry | 0.1 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 1.03 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 |
| Brandt Snedeker | -0.06 | 0.35 | 0.62 | 0.81 | 0.52 | -0.3 | 0.32 |
| Jason Day | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.68 | 0.5 | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| Charley Hoffman | 0.49 | 0.01 | 0.63 | 0 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.31 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 0.18 | 0.3 | 0.12 | 0.87 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| Rory McIlroy | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.67 | 0.74 | -0.59 | 0.28 |
| Patrick Reed | 0.11 | -0.08 | 0.28 | 0.65 | 0.01 | 0.64 | 0.27 |
| J.B. Holmes | 0.41 | -0.4 | 0.67 | 0.27 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| Steven Bowditch | 0.25 | 0.4 | 0.44 | 0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| Danny Lee | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.22 |
| Kevin Na | 0.47 | -0.03 | 0.67 | -0.12 | -0.17 | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| Charl Schwartzel | -0.33 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.95 | 0.63 | -0.08 | 0.21 |
| Padraig Harrington | 0.09 | 0.31 | -0.3 | 1.15 | 0 | 0 | 0.21 |
| Davis Love III | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 |
| Marc Leishman | 0.8 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0 | 0 | -0.84 | 0.18 |
| Shawn Stefani | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 |
| Matt Jones | 0.26 | -0.68 | 0.8 | 0.62 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 0.46 | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0 | -0.22 | 0.37 | 0.16 |
| Graeme McDowell | 0.18 | 0.66 | -0.05 | 0.82 | -0.12 | -0.52 | 0.16 |
| Francesco Molinari | 0.62 | 0.14 | -0.28 | 0.87 | 0.23 | -0.6 | 0.16 |
| Jimmy Walker | -0.02 | -0.21 | 0.3 | 0.41 | 0.1 | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Henrik Stenson | -0.17 | -0.07 | 0.45 | -0.05 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
| Tony Finau | 0.17 | 0.95 | -0.39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 |
| Chesson Hadley | 0.38 | -0.52 | 0.53 | 0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.11 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | -0.08 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Alex Cejka | 0.26 | -0.51 | 0.47 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 |
| Jason Bohn | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| John Senden | 0.1 | 0.05 | -0.24 | -0.09 | 0.03 | 0.56 | 0.07 |
| Brendon de Jonge | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.53 | 0 | 0 | -0.36 | 0.07 |
| Zach Johnson | 0.58 | 0.23 | 0.11 | -0.08 | -0.26 | -0.21 | 0.06 |
| Sergio Garcia | 0.39 | 0.05 | -0.33 | 0.61 | 0.08 | -0.45 | 0.06 |
| David Toms | 0.41 | 0.23 | -0.36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 |
| Brooks Koepka | -0.21 | -0.15 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.27 | -0.15 | 0.05 |
| Charles Howell III | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0 | 0 | -0.33 | 0.04 |
| George McNeill | 0.22 | -0.11 | -0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| Ernie Els | -0.17 | 0.49 | 0.37 | -0.39 | 0.45 | -0.59 | 0.03 |
| Nick Watney | -0.05 | 0.1 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| Daniel Berger | 0.08 | -0.78 | 0.78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 |
| David Hearn | -0.05 | -0.08 | -0.07 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Cameron Tringale | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.45 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.12 | 0.01 |
| Keegan Bradley | -0.01 | -0.09 | 0.02 | 0.55 | -0.13 | -0.43 | -0.01 |
| Harris English | 0.23 | -0.56 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| James Hahn | -0.04 | -0.29 | -0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.61 | -0.02 |
| Nick Taylor | 0.32 | -0.47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.03 |
| Matt Kuchar | 0.01 | -0.23 | 0.05 | -0.18 | -0.22 | 0.41 | -0.03 |
| Russell Knox | -0.28 | -0.06 | -0.53 | 0 | 0 | 0.68 | -0.03 |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 0.18 | -0.57 | -0.17 | 0 | 0 | 0.22 | -0.06 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 0.71 | -0.34 | -0.71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.06 |
| Pat Perez | 0.4 | -0.84 | -0.23 | 0 | 0 | 0.29 | -0.06 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.57 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.06 |
| Vijay Singh | -0.05 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | -0.53 | -0.07 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0.06 | -0.06 | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.13 | -0.07 |
| Bill Haas | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.88 | -0.11 | 0.13 | -0.07 |
| Branden Grace | -0.87 | -0.38 | -0.71 | 1.42 | 0.46 | -0.37 | -0.07 |
| Billy Horschel | -0.16 | -0.03 | -0.37 | 0.36 | -0.06 | -0.19 | -0.08 |
| Brendan Steele | -0.06 | -0.57 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.08 |
| Fabian Gomez | -0.11 | 0 | -0.36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.08 |
| David Lingmerth | -0.15 | 0.47 | -0.79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.08 |
| Kevin Chappell | -0.18 | 0.56 | -0.07 | 0.72 | 0 | -1.51 | -0.08 |
| Jim Furyk | -0.24 | 0.33 | -0.35 | 0.15 | 0.19 | -0.63 | -0.09 |
| Tim Clark | -0.66 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.11 |
| Justin Thomas | 0.06 | -0.19 | -0.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.11 |
| Ryan Moore | 0.15 | -0.14 | -0.2 | -0.31 | -0.13 | -0.03 | -0.11 |
| Lee Westwood | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.04 | -0.62 | 0.03 | -0.06 | -0.11 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.09 | -0.27 | -0.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.11 |
| Y.E. Yang | 0.23 | -1.21 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.14 |
| Joost Luiten | -0.55 | -0.54 | -0.15 | 0 | -0.17 | 0.46 | -0.16 |
| Ben Martin | -0.07 | -0.23 | 0.02 | -0.43 | 0 | -0.25 | -0.16 |
| Kevin Kisner | 0.09 | 0 | -0.26 | -0.2 | 0 | -0.69 | -0.18 |
| Gary Woodland | 0.37 | -0.32 | 0.21 | -0.72 | -0.55 | -0.14 | -0.19 |
| Troy Merritt | -0.56 | 0.14 | -0.91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.22 |
| Brendon Todd | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.61 | 0.15 | -0.97 | 0.15 | -0.24 |
| Camilo Villegas | -0.26 | -0.35 | -0.47 | 0 | 0 | -0.34 | -0.24 |
| Brian Harman | -0.62 | 0 | -1.07 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | -0.26 |
| Bubba Watson | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.49 | 0 | -1.21 | 0.21 | -0.27 |
| Luke Donald | -0.56 | -0.46 | -0.42 | -0.32 | -0.33 | 0.41 | -0.28 |
| Russell Henley | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.13 | -0.68 | -0.29 | -0.72 | -0.29 |
| Robert Streb | 0.09 | -0.22 | -0.45 | 0.36 | 0 | -1.76 | -0.33 |
| Jason Dufner | -0.15 | -0.13 | -1.44 | 0.17 | -0.43 | -0.16 | -0.36 |
| Paul Casey | -0.48 | -0.15 | -0.33 | -0.94 | -0.57 | 0.34 | -0.36 |
| Boo Weekley | 0.23 | -0.73 | -0.53 | 0 | 0 | -1.37 | -0.4 |
| Ryan Palmer | -0.17 | -0.43 | -0.36 | -0.83 | -0.43 | -0.42 | -0.44 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.27 | -0.2 | -0.23 | -0.76 | -0.83 | -0.54 | -0.47 |
| Matt Every | -0.2 | -1.71 | -0.12 | -1.92 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.64 |
Golfers not shown did not meet qualify due to lack of PGA TOUR rounds.