Searching for a Specialist: The PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass will play host to this week’s PLAYERS Championship.

It’s a Pete Dye Design that plays as a traditional par 72 with four par 5. A load of water hazards do their best to defend against low scores.

If you are new to the specialist search, here is a quick primer. The goal of this article is to look at a few key angles for the upcoming event and compare each golfer’s performance in those angles against their long-term baseline. For a golfer to get bucketed as a specialist, they must improve over their baseline in all five angles. At the bottom, I also include a table with the full-field rankings in each angle.

Reviewing last week, it was a sub-par performance as Bryson DeChambeau fizzled to a ho-hum finish and Louis Oosthuizen missed the cut after a poor opening round. It should be easy to bounce back from that specialist showing.

This week we look at Performance on Overseeded Bermuda, Fast Greens, Par 72 Courses, Strong Field Events, and Performance in the Wind.

Here we go…

Overseeded Conditions

One of the big headlines this week is the tournament returning to March.

For grass types that means that the bermuda base hasn’t had time to fully grow in for the season. To protect against patchy conditions, the course instead overseeds the course to allow for green and lush conditions even before the bermuda grows in.

This week, the fairways and rough are overseeded with ryegrass while the greens are overseeded with velvet bentgrass and poa trivialis. Recent events with similar conditions would be the Desert Classic and Waste Management Phoenix Open.

The 10 Overseeded Bermuda Specialists:

Andrew Landry (1.746 sg:overseeded vs. 0.645 sg:total)
Branden Grace (2.505 sg:overseeded vs. 1.66 sg:total)
Trey Mullinax (1.665 sg:overseeded vs. 0.924 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (2.22 sg:overseeded vs. 1.479 sg:total)
Vaughn Taylor (1.727 sg:overseeded vs. 1.029 sg:total)
Jon Rahm (3.195 sg:overseeded vs. 2.525 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.957 sg:overseeded vs. 1.339 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.853 sg:overseeded vs. 1.288 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.563 sg:overseeded vs. 1.017 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.915 sg:overseeded vs. 2.406 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on Overseeded Bermuda since 2014 are Adam Hadwin, Charles Howell III, Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler, and Matt Kuchar.

Andrew Landry won the 2018 Valero Texas Open on overseeded bermuda. Played it mid-April means the bermuda has grown a little more but still overseeded nonetheless. Landry also lost in a playoff at the 2018 CareerBuilder, another event played in overseeded conditions. An interesting deep sleeper, but he’s extremely out of form.

Fast Greens

In recent editions they’ve prepped this event to run at 13 feet on the stimp.

A return to overseeded conditions will likely slow the greens down a bit, but they are still targeting 12.6 feet on the stimp. You may hear golfers talking about slower greens this year, but it’s all relative considering they are comparing to some of the fastest greens over the last few years. Anything over 12 feet is still considered lightning fast.

The Top 10 Fast Green Specialists:

Michael Thompson (1.583 sg:fast greens vs. 0.847 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.939 sg:fast greens vs. 1.248 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.563 sg:fast greens vs. 0.874 sg:total)
Bronson Burgoon (1.454 sg:fast greens vs. 0.833 sg:total)
Peter Uihlein (1.612 sg:fast greens vs. 1.038 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (2.342 sg:fast greens vs. 1.825 sg:total)
Abraham Ancer (1.534 sg:fast greens vs. 1.026 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (1.449 sg:fast greens vs. 0.973 sg:total)
Luke List (2.005 sg:fast greens vs. 1.6 sg:total)
Aaron Wise (1.899 sg:fast greens vs. 1.505 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on courses with fast greens since 2014 are Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, and Hideki Matsuyama.

When it comes to playing well on fast greens, it puts a premium on approach play. You don’t want to be relying on scrambling when the greens are this fast. That also helps golfers that struggle in the around-the-green department. If everyone has a harder time scrambling, then they won’t be at such a disadvantage in that department.

Par 72 Courses

In year’s past, I would have looked at performance on less-than-driver courses. However, all the early-week pressers indicate that the overseeded conditions and cooler temperatures will allow for a few more drivers per round. I’m thinking it should still play as a less-than-driver course, but considering the question mark, I’ve opted for par 72 performance instead.

The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists:

Andrew Landry (1.23 sg:par72 vs. 0.645 sg:total)
Ryan Palmer (1.738 sg:par72 vs. 1.31 sg:total)
Talor Gooch (1.487 sg:par72 vs. 1.075 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.502 sg:par72 vs. 1.097 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.685 sg:par72 vs. 1.339 sg:total)
Alex Noren (1.827 sg:par72 vs. 1.508 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (1.932 sg:par72 vs. 1.635 sg:total)
Byeong Hun An (1.88 sg:par72 vs. 1.588 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.295 sg:par72 vs. 2.005 sg:total)
Richy Werenski (0.907 sg:par72 vs. 0.667 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Par 72 Courses since 2014 are Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Tony Finau.

When looking for par 72 studs, it’s easy to first consider par-5 performance. However, sometimes it’s what the par 5s mask that helps particular golfers. Not so great in destroying the par 4s? Having two fewer will certainly help. Not all par 72s are created equal, but there are definitely golfers that have a preference to the additional par 5s.

Strong Field Events

THE PLAYERS is one of the deepest fields of the year. Some golfers rise to the occasion in these type of events while others fade away quickly when the bright lights shine upon them.

The Top 10 Strong Field Specialists:

Michael Thompson (1.481 sg:strong vs. 0.847 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.362 sg:strong vs. 1.876 sg:total)
Peter Uihlein (1.512 sg:strong vs. 1.038 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.632 sg:strong vs. 1.263 sg:total)
Tom Hoge (0.963 sg:strong vs. 0.602 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.544 sg:strong vs. 1.26 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (1.248 sg:strong vs. 0.973 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (2.1 sg:strong vs. 1.825 sg:total)
Trey Mullinax (1.155 sg:strong vs. 0.924 sg:total)
Rory Sabbatini (1.032 sg:strong vs. 0.808 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained against Strong Fields since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, and Hideki Matsuyama.

One interesting name not on the list above is C.T. Pan. He doesn’t have the larger sample size yet, but he gains strokes over the field at a remarkable rate against strong fields. I’m not excited to jump on board this week, but he is a name I will stow away for major season.

A few others that are steady but not spectacular in their smaller strong-field samples include Beau Hossler and Sam Ryder. The latter is a Florida guy through and through, making him a viable sleeper this week for his PLAYERS debut.

Performance in the Wind

Another result of the move to March is tricky wind conditions.

At the moment the forecast calls for winds at 8-to-17 MPH for the first two days. That’s not extreme, but when you factor in the routing of TPC Sawgrass and the difficult shots it requires, then dealing with any wind becomes a top priority.

Golfers that are great in the wind are generally elite ball-strikers or elite scrambling. That’s also exactly what we need here at TPC Sawgrass.

The Top 10 Wind Specialists:

Danny Willett (1.411 sg:wind vs. 0.614 sg:total)
Kelly Kraft (1.013 sg:wind vs. 0.423 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.571 sg:wind vs. 1.011 sg:total)
Harris English (1.59 sg:wind vs. 1.042 sg:total)
Sergio Garcia (2.696 sg:wind vs. 2.157 sg:total)
Alex Cejka (1.271 sg:wind vs. 0.792 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.868 sg:wind vs. 2.406 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.739 sg:wind vs. 1.288 sg:total)
Nick Taylor (1.247 sg:wind vs. 0.819 sg:total)
Tyler Duncan (0.786 sg:wind vs. 0.37 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in windy conditions since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Paul Casey, and Jason Day.

Sergio shows up high on the list and he backs it up with quotes including this one from the ’14 Houston Open, “I do like playing in the wind. Obviously not hurricane (laughter), but I do enjoy playing in the wind. Like I’d rather play in the wind than in the rain. I don’t know what was the reason. I don’t know if it’s because playing in the UK, playing in Scotland and England and how windy it can get there and how creative you have to be when it gets windy.”

Jimmy Walker is also on the list and he’s not shy about his fondness for wind either, “I grew up here so the wind is just kind of is what it is and I’ve learned to hit the ball low and try to take some spin off of it, control the ball, softer swings, more club. So, I know the year I won it was real windy and I played well at Honda this year in the wind and so I feel like I’m a good wind player. You still have to be on. If you’re off a little in the wind it’s brutal.” He said that during the 2017 Valero Texas Open.

Baseline Performance

There are four golfers who check all the boxes, but now we get to narrow things down based on current form and/or long-term form.

Martin Laird ranks outside the top 110 in current form so he’s not someone I’d trust despite the good course fit.

Next we can look at long-term form (L52 Weeks) and see that Chesson Hadley ranks 81st in the field and Sung Kang ranks just 132nd.

Their current form combined with the course fit does make them interesting options, especially Hadley who finished T11 here just last year.

The Specialist

Luke List

The Specialist of the week is the DFS darling himself, Luke List.

The big hitter has gained 5+ strokes tee-to-green in five of his last eight ShotLink starts. Short game has been the issue, but the Southeast has historically brought out some of his best work.

Looking at his career-best showing from a strokes gained view, two of his four best finishes have come on overseeded bermuda (+15.7 SG at the 2017 Houston Open and +11 SG Total at the 2016 CareerBuilder Challenge). The other two came in the Southeast, a +16.1 SG Total at the 2018 Honda and +12.4 SG Total at the 2016 Sanderson Farms.

He’s 0-for-2 at THE PLAYERS, but he’s actually gained 2+ strokes in two of his four rounds here. His course fit is much better than his record indicates at first glance, but his missed cuts may help keep his ownership at really low levels.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Long-Term Skill (L52) with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Hideki Matsuyama
Rory Mcilroy
Rickie Fowler
Jon Rahm
Dustin Johnson
Paul Casey
Bryson DeChambeau
Justin Thomas
Charles Howell III
Xander Schauffele
Ian Poulter
Tommy Fleetwood
Matt Kuchar
Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Reed
Gary Woodland
Tony Finau
Sergio Garcia
Phil Mickelson
Lucas Glover

Hideki at the top is very interesting but not too surprising when you consider his elite ball-striking should help if the wind picks up and he should enjoy the overseeded conditions.

Our specialist, Luke List, sits at #26 on the list, but that still makes him a prime value option. His L52 baseline sits at #38 in this field, but his form is just 57th. Adding in the course-fit element and a top 25 becomes very viable.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made tiny adjustments for sample sizes, but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 6 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at Long-Term Skill (L52), FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

L52 FORM looks at performance over the last 52 weeks across the PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and European Tour.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Overseeded Fast Greens Par 72 Strong Field Windy Specialist Rating Simple Rating L52 Form
Michael Thompson $7,200 $8,900 $12,000 0.847 -0.485 40.491 0.212 0.736 0.133 0.634 -0.071 0.329 233 1.379
Chesson Hadley $6,700 $8,500 $11,800 0.973 1.659 26.451 0.398 0.476 0.173 0.275 0.059 0.276 349 1.29
Andrew Landry $6,200 $7,400 $10,300 0.645 0.572 2.488 1.1 0.099 0.585 -0.514 -0.03 0.248 621 0.617
Sung Kang $6,000 $7,500 $11,700 0.874 -0.164 32.631 0.12 0.689 0.015 0.048 0.205 0.215 458 0.507
Hideki Matsuyama $8,300 $10,500 $14,900 2.406 1.829 48.922 0.509 0.027 0.082 -0.028 0.462 0.21 69 2.221
Vaughn Taylor $6,300 $7,600 $10,300 1.029 -0.631 22.392 0.699 0.151 0.167 0.209 -0.182 0.209 461 0.946
Luke List $7,000 $9,000 $12,500 1.6 0.511 25.215 0.006 0.404 0.21 0.072 0.287 0.196 235 1.776
Danny Willett $7,100 $8,200 $11,000 0.614 -1.195 16.856 0 -0.187 0.184 0.183 0.798 0.195 499 0.93
Peter Uihlein $6,500 $7,900 $10,500 1.038 0 -10.994 0.015 0.574 -0.138 0.474 0.016 0.188 607 0.953
Trey Mullinax $6,000 $8,200 $10,800 0.924 -0.313 28.718 0.74 -0.084 -0.081 0.231 0.081 0.178 402 0.979
Kyle Stanley $7,100 $8,600 $10,800 1.248 1.667 -16.251 -0.33 0.691 0.229 0.223 0.026 0.168 531 1.306
Russell Henley $6,900 $8,300 $11,900 1.442 1.101 30.188 0.41 0.19 0.149 -0.014 0.027 0.152 277 1.436
Ryan Palmer $6,600 $8,800 $12,000 1.31 1.418 18.15 0.083 0.151 0.428 -0.039 0.125 0.149 476 0.973
Charl Schwartzel $7,500 $9,400 $12,600 1.419 1.69 17.203 0.436 0.18 -0.055 0.014 0.164 0.148 498 0.937
Martin Laird $6,400 $8,600 $11,100 1.268 0.984 6.034 0.281 0.113 0.152 0.128 0.004 0.136 525 1.106
Grayson Murray $6,000 $7,300 $10,200 0.477 1.224 11.206 0.278 0.285 0.042 0.149 -0.088 0.133 628 0.216
John Huh $6,200 $7,300 $10,200 0.813 -0.039 3.706 0.501 0.105 0.054 0.189 -0.197 0.13 612 0.699
Nick Watney $6,400 $8,600 $11,000 1.126 1.138 15.15 0.292 0.24 -0.096 0.156 0.061 0.13 432 1.295
Jon Rahm $9,500 $11,300 $15,600 2.525 0.819 34.121 0.669 -0.004 0.11 -0.102 -0.073 0.12 100 2.571
Charley Hoffman $6,600 $8,700 $11,400 1.525 1.232 18.034 -0.072 0.205 0.145 0.129 0.162 0.114 413 1.303
Patrick Reed $8,100 $9,900 $13,900 1.979 1.639 27.328 0.156 0.086 0.067 -0.044 0.252 0.104 181 2.182
Seamus Power $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 0.515 0 -12.086 -0.058 0 0.177 0 0.394 0.102 729 0.11
Sam Ryder $6,500 $8,200 $10,700 1.096 0 15.234 0.162 0.25 0.093 0 0 0.101 426 1.351
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,900 $8,900 $12,000 1.263 1.479 33.846 0 -0.052 0.188 0.37 -0.051 0.091 343 1.186
Byeong Hun An $6,800 $8,700 $12,700 1.588 1.562 32.198 0.149 0.092 0.293 -0.148 0.062 0.089 223 1.656
Shane Lowry $7,200 $8,000 $11,800 1.363 1.264 -4.728 0.085 0.195 0.108 -0.221 0.279 0.089 459 1.507
Daniel Berger $6,700 $8,900 $12,300 1.773 1.468 20.327 0.493 -0.27 -0.024 -0.05 0.277 0.085 302 1.663
Alex Cejka $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 0.792 0.628 0.461 0.128 0.086 -0.138 -0.138 0.479 0.084 614 0.829
Jimmy Walker $7,000 $8,600 $11,600 1.288 1.536 2.595 0.565 -0.542 0.144 -0.201 0.451 0.083 579 0.968
Emiliano Grillo $7,200 $9,200 $12,400 1.642 1.876 3.49 -0.066 0.257 0.119 0.001 0.105 0.083 363 1.828
Talor Gooch $7,100 $7,700 $11,500 1.075 0 12.224 0 0 0.412 0 0 0.082 492 1.163
Alex Noren $7,500 $9,300 $12,700 1.508 2.64 -3.01 0 -0.267 0.319 -0.01 0.349 0.078 468 1.476
Vijay Singh $6,100 $7,800 $10,400 0.47 1.562 17.487 -0.264 0.187 0.055 0.053 0.354 0.077 608 0.267
Bryson DeChambeau $9,300 $11,400 $15,400 1.825 1.572 30.845 0 0.518 -0.284 0.275 -0.129 0.076 122 2.801
Adam Scott $8,200 $10,700 $14,900 2.152 2.512 21.399 0 0.207 0.226 0.216 -0.302 0.069 261 1.967
Louis Oosthuizen $7,800 $9,700 $13,300 1.852 1.372 7.873 0 0.031 0.129 0.038 0.138 0.067 313 2.101
Brendan Steele $6,300 $8,400 $11,100 1.339 0.936 0.232 0.619 -0.231 0.347 -0.169 -0.231 0.067 703 0.288
Paul Casey $7,900 $9,900 $14,600 2.395 1.488 50.248 -0.054 0.227 0 0.032 0.117 0.064 116 2.137
Tom Hoge $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 0.602 0.392 6.238 0.107 0.04 0.111 0.361 -0.319 0.06 640 0.606
Si Woo Kim $7,700 $9,700 $13,400 1.011 2.458 30.159 -0.638 0.246 0.234 -0.113 0.559 0.058 316 1.413
J.B. Holmes $7,000 $9,100 $12,000 1.522 0.76 24.517 0.096 -0.018 0.164 0.148 -0.12 0.054 314 1.538
Aaron Baddeley $6,300 $8,700 $11,600 0.999 0.148 29.188 0.17 -0.136 0.217 -0.009 0.017 0.052 396 1.172
Charles Howell III $7,300 $9,600 $13,400 1.703 1.012 42.527 0.263 -0.089 0.138 -0.22 0.165 0.052 140 2.028
J.T. Poston $6,500 $7,600 $11,000 1.033 0 29.535 0.232 -0.173 0.088 -0.112 0.203 0.048 390 1.186
Adam Hadwin $7,200 $9,100 $12,600 1.479 1.452 21.756 0.74 0.132 -0.045 -0.028 -0.584 0.043 319 1.63
Austin Cook $6,600 $8,100 $10,900 1.377 1.238 -3.964 0.501 0.107 0.075 -0.421 -0.073 0.038 562 1.252
Phil Mickelson $7,900 $10,400 $13,800 2.13 0.392 38.347 0.262 -0.345 0.077 -0.174 0.369 0.038 195 1.777
Matthew Fitzpatrick $6,900 $8,600 $13,700 1.398 0.882 27.443 0 0.205 0.166 0.187 -0.408 0.03 281 1.651
Ian Poulter $7,600 $9,800 $14,200 1.637 2.2 42.307 -0.391 0.374 0.171 0.064 -0.069 0.03 154 1.987
Bronson Burgoon $6,200 $7,800 $10,200 0.833 0 4.456 -0.32 0.621 0.118 -0.042 -0.231 0.029 565 1.125
Xander Schauffele $9,000 $11,000 $15,600 1.876 2.738 39.621 0 0.026 -0.429 0.487 0.059 0.029 144 2.198
Rory Mcilroy $10,800 $11,800 $17,200 2.902 1.727 56.527 0 0.117 0.224 0.112 -0.315 0.028 70 2.893
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,000 $8,600 $11,500 1.26 -0.256 4.513 0 0 -0.17 0.284 0 0.023 420 1.592
Jason Dufner $6,600 $8,400 $10,500 1.209 1.566 -4.831 0.2 -0.2 -0.118 -0.014 0.224 0.018 732 0.361
Ryan Moore $7,000 $8,400 $11,900 1.623 1.139 21.308 0.142 -0.087 -0.076 -0.122 0.23 0.018 319 1.706
Nick Taylor $6,100 $7,500 $10,600 0.819 -0.541 29.83 0.008 -0.171 0.179 -0.362 0.428 0.016 481 0.765
Chris Kirk $6,400 $8,200 $11,700 1.207 1.733 20.01 0.274 0.045 -0.187 0.077 -0.13 0.016 465 1.245
Patrick Cantlay $8,700 $10,000 $14,700 2.369 2.184 30.226 0 0.151 -0.194 0.03 0.073 0.012 169 2.5
Satoshi Kodaira $6,000 $7,200 $10,200 -0.211 -0.313 -10.955 0 0.054 0 0.001 0 0.011 766 -0.2
Sergio Garcia $9,100 $10,900 $15,300 2.157 1.614 38.71 0 -0.326 -0.155 -0.003 0.539 0.011 185 1.891
Beau Hossler $6,900 $8,700 $11,600 1.319 1.238 27.188 0.158 0.254 -0.072 0.135 -0.424 0.01 325 1.519
Denny McCarthy $6,400 $7,900 $10,300 0.931 0 8.358 0 0 0.048 0 0 0.01 424 1.534
Joel Dahmen $6,200 $7,600 $10,200 0.94 0 -11.938 0 0.057 -0.185 0 0.156 0.006 567 1.361
Matt Kuchar $8,000 $10,000 $14,200 2.176 1.984 40.143 -0.153 0.207 -0.006 0.085 -0.108 0.005 166 2.072
Rickie Fowler $9,700 $11,600 $15,800 2.534 1.081 52.185 0.301 -0.022 -0.218 0.068 -0.127 0 94 2.7
Sungjae Im $6,800 $9,000 $12,800 1.827 0 37.506 0 0 0 0 0 0 276 1.506
Matt Wallace $6,700 $8,500 $13,300 0.826 0 28.485 0 0 0 0 0 0 364 1.371
Wyndham Clark $6,500 $7,500 NA 0.927 0 27.682 0 0 0 0 0 0 514 0.729
Martin Trainer $6,300 $7,500 $10,300 0.617 0 23.656 0 0 0 0 0 0 622 -0.054
Adam Long $6,700 $7,600 $10,600 0.476 0 14.186 0 0 0 0 0 0 595 0.751
Cameron Champ $7,700 $9,500 $11,800 1.155 0 4.602 0 0 0 0 0 0 461 1.493
Lucas Bjerregaard $6,500 $8,100 $11,500 -0.161 0 1.989 0 0 0 0 0 0 529 1.366
Eddie Pepperell $6,800 $8,600 $11,200 0.541 0 -9.316 0 0 0 0 0 0 642 1.05
Harris English $6,100 $7,700 $10,600 1.042 -1.101 8.627 0.207 -0.57 0.016 -0.206 0.548 -0.001 636 0.7
Abraham Ancer $6,900 $8,700 $11,400 1.026 0 9.825 -0.089 0.508 -0.155 -0.345 0.076 -0.001 434 1.523
Cameron Smith $7,600 $9,900 $13,400 1.324 -0.882 32.528 0.081 0.143 0.025 -0.028 -0.239 -0.004 280 1.583
Jhonattan Vegas $6,100 $8,100 $11,800 1.039 1.165 33.053 0.114 -0.172 0.075 0.192 -0.246 -0.007 424 1.079
Jim Furyk $7,100 $8,800 $12,300 1.634 1.308 33.861 0.433 -0.034 -0.234 -0.152 -0.049 -0.007 329 1.394
Lucas Glover $7,100 $9,200 $13,800 1.517 1.517 41.593 -0.258 0.105 0.145 -0.131 0.089 -0.01 195 1.889
Zach Johnson $7,000 $9,400 $12,500 1.826 1.482 21.497 0.149 0.047 -0.044 0.02 -0.244 -0.015 316 1.865
Scott Brown $6,300 $7,800 $10,600 0.791 1.368 24.35 -0.607 0.266 -0.097 0.104 0.236 -0.02 600 0.512
Stewart Cink $6,400 $8,600 $10,600 1.323 0.048 4.509 -0.124 -0.075 -0.095 0.05 0.133 -0.022 559 1.255
Dominic Bozzelli $6,200 NA $10,300 0.602 -1.313 7.51 0.258 0 -0.538 0 0.149 -0.026 692 0.482
Branden Grace $7,400 $9,000 $12,200 1.66 1.335 34.66 0.845 -0.43 -0.257 -0.063 -0.229 -0.027 322 1.431
Tony Finau $8,400 $10,200 $14,100 2.079 0.677 30.217 -0.721 0.04 0.149 0.223 0.17 -0.028 183 2.688
Andrew Putnam $6,500 $8,600 $11,100 1.097 0 1.546 0.006 -0.75 0.405 -0.055 0.255 -0.028 455 1.689
Gary Woodland $7,500 $10,100 $14,000 1.846 0.476 34.884 0.046 -0.288 -0.044 0.017 0.099 -0.034 182 2.217
Marc Leishman $7,600 $9,900 $14,200 2.005 0.841 25.027 -0.472 0.269 0.29 -0.123 -0.135 -0.034 258 2.203
Jason Day $9,200 $11,200 $15,000 2.774 2.301 17.022 0 -0.162 -0.083 -0.091 0.153 -0.036 278 2.676
Jordan Spieth $8,900 $10,800 $14,300 2.539 1.189 12.248 -0.016 0.069 0.16 -0.056 -0.348 -0.038 387 1.776
Billy Horschel $7,400 $9,500 $13,400 1.488 1.505 28.185 0.081 -0.099 -0.042 -0.127 -0.005 -0.038 261 1.987
Kevin Tway $6,800 $8,000 $11,000 1.114 1.238 -1.568 -0.423 -0.343 0.182 0.151 0.239 -0.039 532 1.464
Hao Tong Li $7,300 $9,300 $12,300 0.585 -2.563 25.636 0 0 -0.385 0.174 0 -0.042 353 1.572
Ollie Schniederjans $6,100 $8,000 $10,300 0.864 0.192 10.414 0.506 -0.513 -0.31 0.131 -0.058 -0.049 701 0.326
Rory Sabbatini $6,300 $8,000 $10,700 0.808 1.517 6.724 -0.008 -0.284 0.004 0.224 -0.212 -0.055 612 1.04
Brooks Koepka $10,000 $11,500 $15,800 2.285 2.323 24.437 -0.264 0.137 0.228 -0.032 -0.357 -0.058 248 2.589
Sam Saunders $6,000 $7,500 $10,200 0.663 0 18.179 -0.048 -0.041 -0.353 0.195 -0.1 -0.069 615 0.675
Dustin Johnson $11,400 $12,300 $17,200 3.097 1.843 69.566 0 0.065 -0.246 0.009 -0.175 -0.069 103 3.346
Aaron Wise $7,200 $8,800 $11,800 1.505 0 20.044 0 0.394 -0.752 -0.011 0 -0.074 364 1.753
Troy Merritt $6,100 $7,400 $10,300 0.718 -0.472 0 -0.147 -0.116 -0.03 -0.157 0.054 -0.079 615 1.191
Brian Stuard $6,100 $7,600 $10,600 0.697 0.035 25.256 0.142 -0.164 -0.146 0.054 -0.282 -0.079 543 0.869
Tommy Fleetwood $8,800 $10,600 $15,600 2.477 2.249 44.548 0 -0.118 -0.286 -0.047 0.05 -0.08 164 2.358
Corey Conners $6,700 $7,500 $10,300 0.735 0 -4.009 0 0 -0.244 0 -0.159 -0.081 702 0.841
Richy Werenski $6,200 $8,100 $10,200 0.667 1.905 -0.038 -0.076 0 0.24 -0.193 -0.41 -0.088 675 0.968
Henrik Stenson $7,800 $9,600 $14,200 2.547 1.856 11.684 -0.115 -0.252 0.014 0.002 -0.095 -0.089 358 2.159
Scott Piercy $6,400 $8,700 $11,400 1.169 -0.653 27.624 0.144 -0.257 -0.235 -0.477 0.376 -0.09 481 1.142
Tiger Woods $10,500 $11,100 $15,600 2.289 1.996 28.226 0 -0.036 -0.391 -0.043 0 -0.094 212 2.836
Tyler Duncan $6,200 $7,100 $10,200 0.37 0 2.456 0 0 0.096 -0.988 0.416 -0.095 752 0.445
Bubba Watson $7,300 $9,500 $13,400 1.798 0.986 50.922 -0.206 0.154 -0.165 0.167 -0.431 -0.096 245 1.686
Patrick Rodgers $6,600 $8,500 $11,500 0.899 -0.783 24.063 -0.608 0.099 0.016 0.018 -0.026 -0.1 514 1.147
Harold Varner III $6,500 $8,300 $11,400 1.051 2.044 15.382 -0.208 0.272 0.107 0.193 -0.867 -0.101 476 1.425
Bud Cauley $6,600 $8,800 $11,400 1.349 -0.381 24.382 0.191 -0.059 0.041 -0.101 -0.603 -0.106 422 1.439
Keegan Bradley $7,400 $9,200 $13,400 1.635 1.626 26.422 -0.376 0.092 0.297 -0.057 -0.494 -0.108 321 1.795
Kevin Streelman $6,500 $8,000 $10,900 1.185 0.301 24.756 0.104 -0.14 0.091 -0.436 -0.19 -0.114 529 1.053
Chez Reavie $6,700 $8,700 $11,600 1.503 1.245 12.66 0.289 -0.391 -0.051 -0.202 -0.242 -0.119 506 1.378
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,400 $9,800 $14,200 2.014 2.568 49.048 0 -0.445 -0.045 0.032 -0.149 -0.121 223 1.879
Jason Kokrak $6,700 $9,000 $12,600 1.393 0.827 48.035 -0.024 0.035 -0.308 0.219 -0.536 -0.123 348 1.369
Michael Kim $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 0.38 -0.721 1.108 0.333 -0.353 0.122 -0.448 -0.275 -0.124 798 -0.337
Webb Simpson $8,500 $10,300 $14,400 2.025 2.165 25.884 0.021 -0.1 -0.416 -0.163 0.032 -0.125 263 2.515
Francesco Molinari $8,600 $10,100 $15,800 2.042 2.188 32.489 -0.216 0.16 -0.056 -0.009 -0.536 -0.132 227 2.338
Justin Rose $10,200 $11,700 $15,900 2.794 1.629 -0.504 -0.557 -0.046 0.234 0.068 -0.359 -0.132 385 3.118
Anirban Lahiri $6,300 $7,900 $10,700 0.94 -0.007 -4.842 -0.118 -0.361 0.044 -0.257 0.011 -0.136 742 0.764
Scott Langley $6,000 $7,800 $10,500 0.688 0.481 16.097 0.138 -0.655 -0.175 -0.272 0.273 -0.138 633 0.798
Kevin Na $6,700 $8,600 $11,800 1.653 1.655 21.751 0.029 0.005 -0.33 -0.02 -0.38 -0.139 409 1.575
Ted Potter, Jr. $6,300 $7,700 $10,200 0.572 1.151 -16.409 0.172 0.057 -0.615 -0.168 -0.213 -0.153 782 0.668
Justin Thomas $11,100 $12,100 $16,600 2.507 2.251 60.422 -0.515 0.301 -0.08 0.179 -0.664 -0.156 139 2.98
Brian Gay $6,300 $8,600 $10,700 1.049 0.087 33.386 -0.262 -0.105 -0.41 -0.101 0.083 -0.159 409 1.352
Kevin Kisner $7,000 $9,000 $12,600 1.509 0.883 39.905 -0.039 -0.064 -0.314 -0.029 -0.38 -0.165 387 1.354
Brandon Harkins $6,100 $7,800 $10,200 0.9 0.572 12.879 0.406 -0.487 -0.436 -0.334 0 -0.17 698 0.55
Brian Harman $6,800 $8,300 $10,600 1.171 0.258 8.47 -0.323 -0.333 -0.054 -0.052 -0.104 -0.173 739 0.372
Kelly Kraft $6,400 $7,800 $10,300 0.423 -0.063 2.868 -0.625 -0.138 -0.34 -0.395 0.589 -0.182 757 0.544
Brandt Snedeker $6,900 $9,100 $11,800 1.639 -0.874 10.15 -0.157 -0.676 0.013 -0.299 0.163 -0.191 585 1.249
C.T. Pan $6,800 $8,800 $11,200 1.131 1.238 10.97 -0.836 0.196 -0.089 0.13 -0.399 -0.2 504 1.471
Danny Lee $6,800 $8,200 $11,100 1.073 1.357 13.382 -0.173 -0.434 -0.056 -0.377 -0.061 -0.22 560 1.268
Russell Knox $6,900 $8,600 $12,000 1.442 1.231 39.906 0.081 -0.529 -0.409 -0.167 -0.081 -0.221 350 1.463
Patton Kizzire $6,500 $8,200 $10,700 0.812 -1.115 6.564 0.109 -0.893 -0.237 -0.328 0.228 -0.224 738 0.576
Martin Kaymer $7,300 $8,200 $11,900 1.201 1.136 16.609 -1.08 -0.096 -0.156 0.174 -0.015 -0.235 678 0.622
J.J. Spaun $6,600 $8,100 $10,600 1.017 0.437 6.705 0.545 -0.917 -0.067 -0.441 -0.323 -0.241 636 1.142
Scott Stallings $6,600 $8,300 $10,700 0.805 -1.126 23.347 -0.326 -0.496 -0.45 -0.197 0.168 -0.26 643 0.663
Tyrrell Hatton $7,300 $9,300 $12,700 1.977 0.835 32.439 0 -0.485 -0.626 0.055 -0.358 -0.283 309 1.789
Brice Garnett $6,000 $7,300 $10,200 0.605 0.989 -6.54 -0.594 -0.466 0.051 -0.275 -0.218 -0.3 754 0.811
Ryan Blaum $6,400 $7,400 $10,200 0.739 -0.208 14.235 -0.344 -0.3 -0.035 -0.554 -0.305 -0.308 675 0.722
Ryan Armour $6,200 $7,700 $10,400 0.961 -0.063 6.91 -0.434 -0.199 -0.385 -0.537 0.008 -0.309 649 1.067
Keith Mitchell $6,800 $8,900 $12,600 1.202 -0.208 31.006 0 -0.355 -0.498 -0.859 0 -0.342 428 1.369

About the Author

  • Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

  • Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.

Comments

  • AZUribe

    Chesson Hadley!!! Not Luke list!!! Positive in all angles and better Form and proximity to the hole and Sg: aproach the green Top in those key categories for the Players!

  • AZUribe

    Also missed a lot the TPC angle, could yo send it Please! 🙏

  • YelloMarty

    This article was tremendous — thanks, man!

  • futureoffantasy

    @AZUribe said...

    Chesson Hadley!!! Not Luke list!!! Positive in all angles and better Form and proximity to the hole and Sg: aproach the green Top in those key categories for the Players!

    Yup. Hadley should be a good one, me thinks as well.

  • futureoffantasy

    @AZUribe said...

    Also missed a lot the TPC angle, could yo send it Please! 🙏

    Top 10 for TPC Courses
    Abraham Ancer (1.911 sg:TPC vs. 1.026 sg:total)
    Bronson Burgoon (1.548 sg:TPC vs. 0.833 sg:total)
    Hideki Matsuyama (3.068 sg:TPC vs. 2.406 sg:total)
    Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.649 sg:TPC vs. 2.014 sg:total)
    Beau Hossler (1.907 sg:TPC vs. 1.319 sg:total)
    Bryson DeChambeau (2.399 sg:TPC vs. 1.825 sg:total)
    Chris Kirk (1.757 sg:TPC vs. 1.207 sg:total)
    Chesson Hadley (1.501 sg:TPC vs. 0.973 sg:total)
    Patrick Cantlay (2.86 sg:TPC vs. 2.369 sg:total)
    Andrew Landry (1.104 sg:TPC vs. 0.645 sg:total)

  • skotka

    • 2017 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    I hope luke comes thru. he is 4% owned in the 200k PGA eagle at fanduel.

  • AZUribe

    @josh the players played very different this year so defenatley got it wrong with any angle, short rough, slow faiways-greens, and Marh climate!

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