Searching for a Specialist: Valspar Championship

This week’s host venue is the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort.

It’s one of the toughest courses the pros will see all year. It feautres narrow fairways and small greens. That leads to low GIR rates and an extremely low scoring environment overall. The grasses are bermuda that have been overseeded. We will search for a specialist that plays well under these conditions.

If you are new to the specialist search, here is a quick primer. The goal of this article is to look at a few key angles for the upcoming event and compare each golfer’s performance in those angles against their long-term baseline. For a golfer to get bucketed as a specialist, they must improve over their baseline in all five angles. At the bottom, I also include a table with the full-field rankings in each angle.

Reviewing last week, Luke List was the specialist and he soared into contention on day one and day two. He finished 56th by week’s end but top 30 in DK Scoring. Considering his salary, that was a great performance. Looking at 24 of the specialists this year, we’ve had 11 of them find top 25s (46%) and seven find the top 10 (29%). That kind of ratio is along the same career rates of golfers like Marc Leishman, Xander Schauffele, and Matt Kuchar. Not bad for the average DK salary of $8325.

This week we look at Performance on Overseeded Bermuda, Less-than-Driver Courses, Hard Courses, Long Courses, and Hard-to-Hit Greens.

Here we go…

Overseeded Conditions

Similar to last week, the course at the Valspar features bermudagrass turf, but that turf gets overseeded to help dodge weather disasters for harsh winters.

It’s ryegrass from tee-to-green and then poa trivialis on the putting surfaces.

Recent events with similar grasses include the Desert Classic, WM Phoenix Open, and THE PLAYERS.

The 10 Overseeded Bermuda Specialists:

Andrew Landry (1.727 sg:overseeded vs. 0.678 sg:total)
Jim Furyk (2.552 sg:overseeded vs. 1.71 sg:total)
Jon Rahm (3.253 sg:overseeded vs. 2.555 sg:total)
Vaughn Taylor (1.741 sg:overseeded vs. 1.044 sg:total)
Trey Mullinax (1.618 sg:overseeded vs. 0.924 sg:total)
Graeme McDowell (1.757 sg:overseeded vs. 1.119 sg:total)
Ollie Schniederjans (1.557 sg:overseeded vs. 0.92 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (2.024 sg:overseeded vs. 1.446 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.911 sg:overseeded vs. 1.336 sg:total)
Max Homa (0.189 sg:overseeded vs. -0.267 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on Overseeded Bermuda since 2014 are Adam Hadwin, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Jon Rahm, and Brendan Steele.

Looking a little further down the list, names like John Huh and Chesson Hadley also show up on the quantity list. Very interesting when you consider their low- or mid-grade pedigree.

Less-than-Driver Courses

“It’s a good test. Not a whole lot of driver but a lot of mid to longer irons into the green. Tough par 3’s. Probably a course you’re going to have to try to take advantage of the par-5s and try to take care of those because it doesn’t really offer a lot more in terms of real birdie chances.” -Rory McIlroy

“You know, you have to be pretty strategic out here. It doesn’t offer a lot of drivers for me. It’s a lot of 3-woods, 2 hybrids off the tees and gives me a long iron into the green.” -Dylan Meyer

The Top 10 LT Driver Specialists:

Joaquin Niemann (2.021 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.38 sg:total)
Ted Potter, Jr. (1.069 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.543 sg:total)
Roger Sloan (0.791 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.349 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.604 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.2 sg:total)
D.A. Points (0.216 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.169 sg:total)
Julian Etulain (1.022 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.718 sg:total)
Michael Kim (0.632 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.343 sg:total)
Mackenzie Hughes (0.939 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.658 sg:total)
Tyler Duncan (0.656 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.375 sg:total)
Kevin Na (1.904 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.632 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on less-than-driver courses since 2014 are Kevin Kisner, Webb Simpson, Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, and Dustin Johnson.

That quantity list is probably the type of golfer that most people think about when it comes to grind-it-out courses. That’s certainly true, but part of that is the amount of times they play these style of courses. If DJ changed his schedule to only play less-than-driver courses then you’d quickly see him rise even further up that list.

Not surprisingly, Jon Rahm is near the bottom of this list. He is notorious for trying to hit driver as much as possible. It’s possible that he finds a way to hit a few more drivers than most here, but overall, the layout might frustrate him if he’s forced to holster the big stick too often.

Hard Courses

Since 2010 at the Valspar, the field has averaged roughly 3/4 of a shot over par, per round. That secures it as one of the toughest non-majors on the regular rota.

“If you see guys that come out and play well here, they’re likely to play well on the harder courses and the bigger tournaments just because that kind of course suits their game more.” -Jordan Spieth

The Top 10 Hard Course Specialists:

John Senden (1.542 sg:hard vs. 0.677 sg:total)
Danny Willett (1.314 sg:hard vs. 0.573 sg:total)
Steve Stricker (2.4 sg:hard vs. 1.711 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.35 sg:hard vs. 1.79 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (2.375 sg:hard vs. 1.84 sg:total)
Michael Kim (0.873 sg:hard vs. 0.343 sg:total)
John Huh (1.308 sg:hard vs. 0.789 sg:total)
Scott Brown (1.267 sg:hard vs. 0.777 sg:total)
Sam Saunders (1.134 sg:hard vs. 0.645 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.957 sg:hard vs. 1.488 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Hard Courses since 2014 are Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Jason Day, and Charley Hoffman.

When most look at the top-10 list above they will immediately draw a connection with Augusta National and the Masters (Willett, Bubba, Oosthy, Hoffman). Performance at the Valspar should be considered a great prep event for the Masters, but it can go the other way too. Anyone that has played well at the Masters (and other hard-course events) should be considered live this week in Tampa.

Long Courses

The first look at the scorecard doesn’t instantly scream LONG, but the more you look at it, the longer this course stretches.

First, there are five par 3s and all of them play at 195 yards or longer. That puts an emphasis on long-iron play.

Then you have three par 5s at 575 yards or longer. All that yardage will really penalize poor ball-striking.

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists:

Carlos Ortiz (1.493 sg:long vs. 0.568 sg:total)
Jonas Blixt (1.235 sg:long vs. 0.569 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.38 sg:long vs. 0.888 sg:total)
Sam Burns (1.17 sg:long vs. 0.694 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.849 sg:long vs. 1.398 sg:total)
Vaughn Taylor (1.462 sg:long vs. 1.044 sg:total)
Trey Mullinax (1.282 sg:long vs. 0.924 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (1.696 sg:long vs. 1.386 sg:total)
K.J. Choi (0.841 sg:long vs. 0.541 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (1.119 sg:long vs. 0.831 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Long Courses since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, and Gary Woodland.

Distance off the tee is the easiest way to excel on long courses, but another route is through elite scrambling skills. The longer a course stretches out, the easier it is to miss greens. That means you have more chances to shine with your short game.

Performance on Hard GIR Courses

This angle goes along the same route as the last two we just looked at.

Longer courses often yield harder-to-hit greens and that’s certainly the case here at the Copperhead Course.

When greens are harder to hit, it will naturally be tougher to post a red number. In that regard, this angle matches well with the general Hard Course angle.

The Top 10 Hard GIR Specialists:

John Senden (1.529 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.677 sg:total)
Jonas Blixt (1.171 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.569 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (2.022 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.488 sg:total)
Michael Kim (0.842 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.343 sg:total)
Steve Stricker (2.184 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.711 sg:total)
Alex Cejka (1.247 sg:hard GIR vs. 0.783 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.658 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.2 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.245 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.79 sg:total)
Bill Haas (1.739 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.343 sg:total)
Nick Watney (1.5 sg:hard GIR vs. 1.119 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Hard GIR Courses since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed, Charley Hoffman, and Jason Day.

We already mentioned Rahm in the LT Driver angle, but now here he is again near the bottom of another angle. It’s possible that Innisbrook is just a perfect fit for his eye and he laps the field, but if I had to guess based on these generic numbers then it doesn’t look like an ideal setup for the aggressive Spaniard.

Baseline Performance

There are seven golfers who check all the boxes, but now we get to narrow things down based on current form.

John Huh and D.A. Points find themselves #1 and #2 in the Specialist Rating this week, but they are negative in the FORM department. No thanks.

The Specialist

Charl Schwartzel
Branden Grace
Matt Jones
Graeme McDowell
Ryan Moore

We’ve got a handful of specialists this week with Charl Schwartzel leading the pack.

The South African has been up and down over the last year, but overall he sits at #64 in performance over the last year. That’s a far cry from his 5-year numbers, but he’s still inside the top 70 which is what we care about (making cuts).

From there, we see him really shine on tougher courses. He said this in 2017 when playing a Euro Tour event, “ I find sometimes the tougher the course is, the better I play so sometimes these kinds of courses suit me.”

It’s a good week to expect a rebound from last week’s poor showing at THE PLAYERS.

His compatriot, Branden Grace, also shines on tough courses which is why we’ve seen him pop into contention so often in major championships.

Matt Jones is the oddball of this bunch. He’s got a poor track record at the Valspar so his course fit hasn’t matched up with the actual results. Sometimes it’s best to just trust the results while sometimes a golfer gets a few bad bounces or gets sick at the same event and suddenly their course resume starts to drop. I’m not sure which is the case here, but I like Jones as a potential (high risk) upside play.

G-Mac and Moore bring less risk, if that’s what you are looking for. McDowell finished T14 here in 2017 while Moore has three finishes of T18 or better in his last four Valspar starts.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Long-Term Skill (L52) with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Patrick Reed
Jim Furyk
Sergio Garcia
Bubba Watson
Dustin Johnson
Ryan Moore
Jason Kokrak
Kevin Kisner
Jason Day
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Paul Casey
Lucas Glover
Jon Rahm
Michael Thompson
Webb Simpson
Louis Oosthuizen
Kevin Na
Keegan Bradley
Russell Knox
Joaquin Niemann

How about that, Captain America himself finds himself at the top here. We shouldn’t take this as gospel, but it would certainly be a believable leaderboard if we saw this list on Sunday afternoon.

Joaquin Niemann looks like a very juicy sleeper considering his price this week. If he snags a top 25 then he’d easily pay off his price tag across the industry.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made tiny adjustments for sample sizes, but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 6 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at Long-Term Skill (L52), FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

L52 FORM looks at performance over the last 52 weeks across the PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and European Tour.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Overseeded LT Driver Hard Course Hard GIR Long Course Specialist Rating Simple Rating L52 Form
John Huh $6,500 $7,400 $10,700 0.789 1.26 -1.931 0.414 0.044 0.519 0.379 0.168 0.305 522 0.565
D.A. Points $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 -0.169 0.059 -3.138 0.125 0.385 0.414 0.214 0.169 0.261 639 -0.18
Jason Dufner $6,900 $8,900 $11,700 1.2 1.692 -2.963 0.14 0.404 0.445 0.458 -0.206 0.248 578 0.376
John Senden $6,200 $7,100 $10,500 0.677 0.621 2.395 -0.398 -0.128 0.865 0.851 0.026 0.243 594 -0.288
Andrew Landry $6,600 $7,300 $11,200 0.678 0 7.654 1.049 -0.122 0 0 0.252 0.236 416 0.671
Nick Watney $7,200 $8,700 $12,200 1.119 1.378 7.508 0.255 -0.048 0.392 0.382 0.195 0.235 298 1.283
Charl Schwartzel $8,200 $10,100 $14,000 1.386 2.091 15.244 0.16 0.055 0.433 0.205 0.31 0.233 313 0.927
Michael Kim $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 0.343 -0.063 -7.649 0.193 0.29 0.53 0.5 -0.355 0.232 682 -0.409
Jonas Blixt $6,200 $7,800 $11,400 0.569 1.221 28.845 -0.493 0.102 0.28 0.602 0.666 0.231 363 0.513
Branden Grace $8,000 $9,700 $13,900 1.618 1.748 15.211 0.402 0.258 0.329 0.021 0.099 0.222 231 1.372
Vaughn Taylor $6,800 $7,600 $11,400 1.044 -0.919 31.902 0.696 -0.171 0.081 0.059 0.418 0.217 231 0.994
Steve Stricker $7,400 $9,200 $12,500 1.711 1.891 6.305 -0.341 0.072 0.688 0.473 0.159 0.21 299 1.348
Jim Herman $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 0.578 1.829 1.465 0.388 0.216 0 0.144 0.266 0.203 609 -0.204
Charley Hoffman $7,000 $8,800 $11,800 1.488 0.126 -1.649 -0.219 0.13 0.469 0.534 0.046 0.192 398 1.14
Bubba Watson $8,900 $9,900 $14,500 1.79 0.791 41.842 -0.239 0.006 0.56 0.455 0.171 0.191 83 1.753
Trey Mullinax $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 0.924 1.314 18.079 0.695 -0.114 0 0 0.358 0.188 294 0.98
Ollie Schniederjans $7,700 $8,100 $13,500 0.92 0.712 16.184 0.637 0.205 0.074 -0.004 0.025 0.187 448 0.411
Sam Saunders $6,300 $7,500 $11,100 0.645 1.032 15.642 -0.113 0.16 0.489 0.064 0.254 0.171 391 0.649
Matt Jones $6,700 $8,600 $11,400 0.846 -0.487 14.31 0.231 0.079 0.342 0.04 0.157 0.17 324 0.989
Sung Kang $7,200 $7,900 $12,600 0.888 0.539 43.787 0.16 -0.195 0.323 0.066 0.492 0.169 326 0.548
Patrick Reed $9,500 $10,800 $15,800 1.973 2.467 36.151 0.114 -0.133 0.372 0.29 0.157 0.16 70 2.13
Jason Kokrak $8,600 $9,700 $14,600 1.398 1.23 43.913 -0.014 -0.165 0.184 0.302 0.451 0.152 119 1.427
Jim Furyk $9,200 $10,000 $15,300 1.71 1.981 54.285 0.842 -0.127 0.065 -0.02 -0.002 0.152 81 1.607
Graeme Mcdowell $7,500 $9,200 $12,400 1.119 1.566 17.969 0.638 0.043 0.007 0.028 0.036 0.15 309 0.97
Kevin Na $7,800 $8,600 $13,000 1.632 1.28 19.312 -0.088 0.273 0.19 0.123 0.211 0.142 188 1.514
Sam Burns $7,100 $8,500 $11,800 0.694 1.797 2.627 0 0.188 0 0 0.476 0.133 449 0.745
Ryan Moore $8,700 $8,900 $14,200 1.651 1.469 34.007 0.272 0.107 0.138 0.109 0.038 0.133 118 1.693
Alex Cejka $6,000 $7,300 $10,300 0.783 1.085 2.167 0.091 0.1 -0.02 0.464 0.014 0.13 447 0.842
Austin Cook $7,000 $8,300 $11,800 1.344 1.13 3.853 0.333 0.098 0 0.226 -0.012 0.129 354 1.189
Joaquin Niemann $7,200 $8,800 $12,500 1.38 0 20.473 0 0.641 0 0 -0.049 0.118 192 1.436
Adam Hadwin $8,300 $9,800 $14,000 1.446 2.056 8.24 0.578 0.171 -0.397 0.117 0.077 0.109 251 1.542
Bill Haas $6,700 $8,700 $11,500 1.343 1.55 2.159 -0.311 0.102 0.383 0.395 -0.025 0.109 492 0.652
K.J. Choi $6,100 $7,100 $10,300 0.541 0.387 -1.938 -0.024 0.069 0 0.131 0.3 0.095 622 0.202
Seamus Power $6,300 $7,000 $10,800 0.559 0.448 2.47 0.097 0.146 0 0.176 0.04 0.092 575 0.217
Max Homa $6,300 $7,800 $11,200 -0.267 -0.371 31.845 0.456 -0.259 0 0 0.258 0.091 425 0.301
Roger Sloan $7,000 $8,000 $12,200 0.349 0 20.241 0 0.442 0 0 0 0.088 396 0.609
Peter Uihlein $6,400 $8,000 $11,300 1.011 -0.212 -6.905 -0.103 -0.018 0.326 -0.02 0.207 0.078 487 0.953
J.T. Poston $7,900 $8,300 $13,200 1.081 1.665 32.413 0.38 -0.199 0 0.221 -0.01 0.078 217 1.261
Danny Willett $6,700 $8,400 $11,800 0.573 1.134 14.387 0 -0.959 0.741 0.33 0.278 0.078 364 0.884
Cameron Tringale $6,500 $7,600 $11,000 0.552 0.468 19.81 0.115 0.088 -0.067 0.218 0.024 0.076 500 0.001
Louis Oosthuizen $9,300 $10,300 $14,900 1.84 1.607 14.525 -0.047 -0.156 0.535 0.04 -0.008 0.073 177 2.173
Zach Johnson $7,600 $9,900 $13,400 1.794 1.02 8.206 0.009 -0.063 0 0.182 0.229 0.071 243 1.767
Kevin Kisner $8,500 $9,600 $14,600 1.531 0.203 41.651 0.086 0.186 0.011 0.29 -0.221 0.071 137 1.511
Nick Taylor $7,300 $8,000 $12,500 0.861 0.146 43.785 0.145 -0.325 0.329 0.249 -0.053 0.069 256 0.895
Sergio Garcia $10,100 $11,300 $16,600 2.179 2.26 51.246 0 0.151 0.234 0.243 -0.387 0.048 81 1.949
Scott Brown $6,300 $8,000 $11,400 0.777 0.414 21.79 -0.648 0.177 0.49 0.085 0.104 0.041 413 0.524
Stephan Jaeger $6,500 $7,500 $10,600 0.345 0.797 2.932 0 0.128 0 0 0.063 0.038 493 0.647
Freddie Jacobson $6,100 $7,100 $10,600 0.57 -0.116 9.214 -0.005 0.195 0 0.102 -0.102 0.038 599 -0.391
Henrik Stenson $9,100 $10,400 $15,000 2.517 1.983 14.136 -0.289 0.135 0.217 0.238 -0.122 0.036 206 1.986
Adam Schenk $6,900 $8,700 $11,800 0.786 0.63 34.874 0 0.002 0 0 0.165 0.033 246 1.065
Michael Thompson $7,600 $9,500 $13,000 0.847 -0.329 44.973 0.195 -0.151 -0.032 0.032 0.101 0.029 170 1.359
Shawn Stefani $6,500 $7,400 NA 0.711 0.721 11.06 -0.186 0.085 0.151 -0.181 0.244 0.023 379 0.94
Chesson Hadley $7,500 $8,600 $12,600 0.964 0.03 14.51 0.354 0.172 -0.338 -0.062 -0.014 0.022 302 1.268
Harris English $6,800 $8,200 $11,600 1.034 0.843 11.768 0.159 -0.313 0.082 0.04 0.134 0.021 463 0.612
Russell Henley $7,800 $8,700 $13,200 1.433 1.735 18.073 0.351 0.111 0.07 -0.274 -0.165 0.019 251 1.415
Beau Hossler $7,200 $9,400 $12,400 1.315 0.246 19.669 0.129 0.016 0 0 -0.078 0.013 206 1.562
Julian Etulain $6,300 $7,500 $11,000 0.718 0 20.372 0 0.303 0 0 -0.267 0.007 478 0.316
Sungjae Im $7,700 $9,600 $13,900 1.795 0 24.571 0 0 0 0 0 0 197 1.5
Dylan Frittelli $7,100 $9,000 $12,100 0.893 0 8.333 0 0 0 0 0 0 342 1.261
Sebastian Munoz $6,400 $7,900 $11,100 0.623 0 16.239 0 0 0 0 0 0 368 0.883
Cameron Davis $6,800 $8,400 $11,400 0.985 0 13.872 0 0 0 0 0 0 400 0.864
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $6,700 $7,600 $11,800 0.891 0 28.804 0 0 0 0 0 0 345 0.752
Kramer Hickok $6,400 $7,200 $11,500 0.347 0 2.804 0 0 0 0 0 0 494 0.661
Wyndham Clark $6,900 $8,600 $11,900 0.769 0 20.391 0 0 0 0 0 0 393 0.656
Jim Knous $6,200 $7,100 $10,500 0.313 0 -10.542 0 0 0 0 0 0 637 0.44
Dylan Meyer $6,500 $7,200 $10,200 0.895 -0.037 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 587 0.431
Adam Svensson $6,600 $7,700 $10,600 0.655 0 -5.851 0 0 0 0 0 0 638 0.413
Hank Lebioda $6,100 $7,700 $10,700 0.404 0 5.22 0 0 0 0 0 0 556 0.383
Chase Wright $6,300 $7,300 $10,500 0.52 0 -2.229 0 0 0 0 0 0 630 0.316
Seth Reeves $6,000 $7,500 $10,200 -0.156 0 -1.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 630 0.228
Kyle Jones $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 -0.47 0 6.773 0 0 0 0 0 0 580 0.204
Sepp Straka $6,200 $7,400 $10,700 0.039 0 -1.202 0 0 0 0 0 0 644 0.19
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez $6,600 $7,600 $10,600 0.514 0 1.798 0 0 0 0 0 0 625 0.172
Austin Connelly $6,000 $7,700 $10,200 -0.113 -1.048 0.225 0 0 0 0 0 0 636 0.129
Martin Trainer $6,400 $8,100 $11,300 0.762 0 32.811 0 0 0 0 0 0 469 0.03
Akshay Bhatia $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 647 0
Luke Donald $6,600 $8,300 $11,400 0.972 1.285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 653 -0.068
Joey Garber $6,300 $7,000 $11,300 -0.771 0 -2.202 0 0 0 0 0 0 694 -0.314
Kenny Perry $6,100 $7,100 $10,200 -0.36 0.38 2.303 0 0 0 0 0 0 670 -1.297
Ryan Vermeer $6,200 $7,000 $10,000 -2.366 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 689 -3.353
Rod Perry $6,100 $7,000 $10,000 -3.395 -2.372 -8.812 0 0 0 0 0 0 746 -3.906
Rafa Cabrera Bello $8,800 $10,000 $14,500 1.939 0.554 41.075 0 0.24 -0.084 -0.085 -0.073 0 148 1.779
Billy Hurley III $6,200 $7,100 $10,200 0.524 0.322 -2.47 -0.363 -0.107 0.255 -0.008 0.205 -0.004 670 0.279
Rod Pampling $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -0.15 0.693 -24.23 0.143 -0.004 0.08 -0.075 -0.162 -0.004 775 -0.697
Hudson Swafford $6,900 $8,400 $11,400 0.932 0.866 8.127 0.229 -0.165 -0.109 -0.088 0.111 -0.005 485 0.736
Kevin Streelman $7,400 $8,400 $12,200 1.183 0.985 20.8 0.092 0.166 -0.004 -0.006 -0.27 -0.005 330 1.032
Ryan Blaum $6,300 $7,700 $11,100 0.731 1.569 14.456 -0.368 0.112 -0.185 0.148 0.251 -0.008 452 0.712
Sam Ryder $7,300 $8,600 $11,900 1.084 0.297 14.366 0.11 -0.044 0 0 -0.129 -0.013 334 1.337
Scott Stallings $6,900 $8,400 $11,600 0.807 0.408 28.237 -0.312 0.067 -0.009 0.209 -0.043 -0.018 393 0.69
Brendan Steele $6,700 $8,500 $11,600 1.336 0.094 2.327 0.575 -0.266 -0.109 -0.127 -0.167 -0.019 619 0.318
Tyrrell Hatton $7,900 $9,200 $14,500 1.919 0 16.198 0 0.085 -0.256 -0.201 0.235 -0.027 238 1.812
Denny McCarthy $7,100 $8,100 $11,800 0.976 0 8.467 0 -0.155 0 0 -0.004 -0.032 305 1.553
Brian Stuard $6,400 $8,000 $11,200 0.691 0.673 19.644 0.112 0.121 -0.343 -0.132 0.058 -0.037 407 0.815
Brandon Harkins $6,600 $7,800 $10,600 0.847 0.242 -2.8 0.21 0.077 0 0 -0.507 -0.044 652 0.434
Ted Potter, Jr. $6,100 $7,900 $10,400 0.543 0.502 -16.645 -0.012 0.526 0 -0.454 -0.287 -0.045 599 0.761
Carlos Ortiz $6,800 $8,000 $11,700 0.568 0.264 27.032 -0.078 -0.596 -0.577 0.087 0.925 -0.048 374 0.843
Chris Kirk $7,500 $8,400 $12,500 1.21 0.443 19.847 0.261 0.228 -0.468 -0.314 0.048 -0.049 327 1.192
Brandon Hagy $6,200 $7,600 $10,600 0.641 -0.094 1.465 0 -0.144 0 0 -0.12 -0.053 586 0.596
Dustin Johnson $11,500 $12,600 $19,900 3.116 -0.099 66.714 0 -0.074 -0.056 -0.131 -0.004 -0.053 104 3.39
Rory Sabbatini $6,900 $8,600 $12,200 0.833 1.322 19.149 0.08 0.034 -0.205 -0.147 -0.037 -0.055 355 1.093
Stewart Cink $7,000 $9,100 $11,400 1.306 0.885 -3.95 -0.184 -0.039 -0.064 0.085 -0.091 -0.059 493 1.236
Jason Day $10,700 $11,800 $17,500 2.796 0.452 34.314 0 -0.026 -0.015 -0.095 -0.16 -0.059 146 2.768
Brian Gay $7,100 $8,800 $11,800 1.038 -0.342 34.473 -0.199 0.196 -0.032 -0.23 -0.055 -0.064 262 1.322
Russell Knox $8,100 $9,000 $14,100 1.453 1.243 36.055 0.126 0.073 -0.385 -0.019 -0.116 -0.064 191 1.585
Grayson Murray $6,200 $7,200 $10,400 0.442 -0.611 2.569 0.156 -0.164 -0.281 -0.2 0.125 -0.073 671 -0.006
Chez Reavie $7,300 $9,300 $12,700 1.493 0.982 -2.43 0.234 -0.189 -0.153 -0.049 -0.21 -0.073 454 1.361
Kelly Kraft $6,700 $8,100 $11,300 0.449 0.83 13.773 -0.429 0.228 -0.059 0.024 -0.147 -0.077 526 0.596
Lucas Glover $9,000 $10,500 $14,900 1.492 0.786 43.081 -0.322 -0.003 -0.09 0.051 -0.021 -0.077 160 1.84
Joel Dahmen $7,400 $7,700 $12,100 1.018 0 7.654 -0.214 0.009 0 0 -0.206 -0.082 351 1.462
Brandt Snedeker $8,400 $9,800 $14,500 1.682 1.067 23.245 0.062 0.059 -0.182 -0.245 -0.105 -0.082 269 1.417
Tom Hoge $6,600 $7,200 $11,200 0.636 0.156 10.3 0.214 -0.029 -0.256 -0.165 -0.237 -0.094 518 0.623
Hunter Mahan $6,400 $8,000 $10,800 0.558 0.637 -2.668 0.047 -0.474 0.02 -0.14 0.062 -0.097 551 0.921
Webb Simpson $10,400 $10,700 $16,100 2.049 1.655 29.181 0.121 -0.108 -0.14 -0.282 -0.099 -0.102 177 2.565
Paul Casey $9,700 $10,900 $15,800 2.344 2.205 43.073 -0.596 -0.14 0.173 -0.018 0.069 -0.103 156 2.017
Tyler Duncan $6,300 $7,000 $10,600 0.375 -0.758 10.253 0 0.281 0 0 -0.808 -0.105 565 0.46
Patrick Rodgers $6,800 $8,500 $12,000 0.89 -0.178 27.5 -0.604 0.077 -0.139 -0.096 0.181 -0.116 341 1.036
Morgan Hoffmann $6,400 $7,000 $10,600 0.557 0.301 -4.973 -0.306 0.223 0 0.051 -0.57 -0.121 770 -0.208
Bud Cauley $7,200 $9,100 $12,400 1.357 -0.128 21.095 0.189 -0.287 -0.204 -0.235 -0.105 -0.129 294 1.376
Robert Streb $6,700 $8,000 $10,800 0.736 -0.774 -15.256 -0.09 -0.386 0.012 -0.3 0.115 -0.129 723 0.336
Brian Harman $7,000 $8,900 $12,700 1.212 0.276 17.158 -0.123 0.099 -0.069 -0.15 -0.424 -0.133 527 0.503
Alex Prugh $6,300 $7,300 NA 0.287 -0.559 0.279 -0.474 0.009 0 0 -0.204 -0.134 565 0.749
Cody Gribble $6,000 $7,100 $10,200 -0.091 0.391 -19.596 0.048 -0.11 -0.403 -0.268 -0.048 -0.156 799 -0.311
Ryan Armour $6,900 $7,800 $11,400 0.949 0.96 10.257 -0.465 0.253 -0.195 -0.189 -0.203 -0.16 418 1.157
Roberto Castro $7,100 $8,600 $11,800 0.831 0.101 21.81 0.041 -0.122 -0.715 -0.303 0.288 -0.162 282 1.418
Jon Rahm $11,000 $11,700 $17,500 2.555 0 35.34 0.698 -0.45 -0.403 -0.726 0.047 -0.167 166 2.629
Satoshi Kodaira $6,000 $7,200 $10,400 -0.253 0 -13.839 0 -0.506 0 0 -0.335 -0.168 782 -0.168
Danny Lee $7,300 $8,500 $12,000 1.041 1.104 -0.546 -0.303 0.133 -0.432 0.162 -0.404 -0.169 490 1.226
Chris Stroud $6,200 $8,400 $11,000 0.65 -0.561 3.124 0.133 0.029 -0.258 -0.547 -0.282 -0.185 587 0.606
Peter Malnati $6,500 $7,700 $11,000 0.544 -0.35 8.774 -0.216 0.108 -0.335 -0.18 -0.374 -0.199 427 1.172
Keegan Bradley $9,400 $10,100 $14,900 1.663 0.936 39.842 -0.239 -0.037 -0.491 -0.186 -0.065 -0.204 189 1.858
Scott Langley $6,500 $8,200 $11,400 0.701 0.803 21.532 0.164 -0.173 -0.412 -0.501 -0.355 -0.255 428 0.811
Harold Varner III $6,700 $8,500 $11,600 1.023 -0.61 -4.046 -0.301 0.074 -0.01 -0.723 -0.344 -0.261 502 1.357
Richy Werenski $6,800 $8,300 $11,200 0.691 -1.397 4.494 0.017 -0.317 0 0 -1.058 -0.272 480 1
Gary Woodland $9,900 $10,600 $15,800 1.855 0.862 30.681 0.09 -0.311 -0.682 -0.563 0.036 -0.286 199 2.232
Kevin Tway $6,500 $8,000 $11,500 1.089 -0.008 -4.675 -0.53 -0.309 -0.033 -0.588 0.016 -0.289 474 1.442
Anirban Lahiri $6,600 $8,100 $11,100 0.935 0 -2.307 -0.138 0.221 -0.412 -0.599 -0.536 -0.293 587 0.861
C.T. Pan $7,000 $9,000 $11,900 1.104 -1.04 8.158 -0.856 0.199 -0.625 -0.273 -0.043 -0.32 394 1.41
Mackenzie Hughes $6,100 $7,600 $10,500 0.658 0 -3.17 -0.544 0.281 -0.494 -0.937 -0.029 -0.344 660 0.613
Brice Garnett $6,400 $7,400 $11,000 0.639 0.878 2.396 -0.401 -0.135 -1.356 -0.347 -0.146 -0.477 538 0.869
Patton Kizzire $6,600 $8,500 $11,500 0.794 0.699 6.024 0.024 -0.029 -1.039 -1.035 -0.351 -0.486 600 0.572

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.