ShotQuality Sims Tool: Instantly Enter Best Bets, DFS Upside Plays, Advance Analytics

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino)

Created Nov 11, 2026

Last Updated 2026-11-12 17:04:07 Premium Content Part of the product NBA DFS

What is this Tool?

ShotQuality Sims plays out every NBA game thousands of times before tip-off using ShotQuality’s shot data (how good the shots each team creates and allows are, play type by play type) and turns those sims into a price for every bet on the board. Instead of a single projection, you see the full range of how a game can go: who wins and by how much, how many points go up, and what every player’s stat line looks like across all 5,000 games. The tool then lines those chances up against the sportsbooks’ odds, so you can see where the sims and the market disagree, which bets carry an edge, and how big that edge is. Odds refresh every 10 minutes, and the sims update through the day as lineups and news change.

How to Use the Tool

Replay — Use it to watch one of the median outcome sims play out shot by shot on the court: the score, the clock, every shot and its play type, and a box score you can lay over the floor. Step through it shot by shot or scrub to any point in the game, and filter the shot chart by team or play type. Beside the court, the Bets panel shows which bets cash in that sim, or switch it to the best bets across all sims and watch them cash as the game plays.

Best bets — Use it for the short list: 3–4 picks at 11:30 AM, 3:30 PM and 5:30 PM ET, drawn from game lines, props and specials, each with the sims’ chance, the edge at the best price and a link to bet it. Every pick clears a minimum edge for its bet type, nothing longer than +300 makes the list, and the same bet never repeats in a day. Pick a sportsbook at the top to see every price on the page at that book only.

Parlay — Use it for the parlay of the day: four legs from four different games at one sportsbook, each leg +EV at that book and hitting in at least 40% of the sims. Below it, the same-game parlay for the game you’re viewing pairs legs that are each +EV at one book.

Betting — Use it to see the game lines worth a look (moneyline, spread, total and team totals) for this game or the whole slate, each with the sims’ chance, the best available price and the edge at that price.

Props — Use it to see the main-line player props where the sims and the books disagree, for this game or the whole slate, with the line, the sims’ chance and the best price.

First basket — Use it for the markets decided in the opening minutes: first basket, first field goal and first three, including first basket by method, priced from how each sim’s opening possessions play out.

Ladders — Use it to climb alt lines and milestones (points, rebounds, assists, threes and combos) rung by rung. Each rung shows its price, the chance it needs to break even, and the sims’ chance that it hits.

DFS — Use it to find the players whose sims show more upside, more downside, or a wider range of outcomes than the market expects, for this game or the whole slate.

Matchup — Use it to line up each offense against the opposing defense: pace, points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, effective field goal percentage, turnovers and more. Play types show how each kind of possession should go tonight against this defense compared with league average (green better than usual, red worse), along with the bets the matchup points to.

Results — Use it to check the record: a 2025-26 backtest of the board’s rules, and the live 2026-27 record of every best bet and parlay, graded each night from the box scores.

Players — Use it to compare each player’s ShotQuality sim projection with the main projection: minutes, DFS points, the gap between the two, his main play types, his matchup, and his shot-making.

Why Shot Quality and Simulation Matter for NBA Betting and DFS

Shooting is the noisiest part of basketball. A team can go 8-for-35 from three on wide-open looks one night and bury contested pull-ups the next, and the box score records only the makes. Shot quality looks underneath the result at the chances themselves: the expected value of every shot, given who took it, where it came from, how it was defended and what kind of play created it. A team that keeps generating good looks and missing them is a different bet than one living on tough shots that happen to be falling, even when their recent scoring looks the same. Shot quality separates the process that tends to repeat from the shooting luck that tends not to.

A single projection hides most of what a bettor needs. “112 to 108” says nothing about how often the favorite covers, how often the game goes over, or how often a player clears 24.5 points, let alone 30. Simulating each game 5,000 times turns a projection into probabilities for every outcome, and it keeps related outcomes tied together: when a game runs fast, both teams’ totals rise; when a starter sits, his shots and minutes move to teammates. Those links are what alt lines, ladders and same-game parlays depend on, and they are exactly what a one-number projection leaves out.

An edge only exists against a price. A bet that wins 55% of the time is profitable at -110 and a loser at -150, so the same opinion can be a good bet at one sportsbook and a bad one at another. Putting the sims’ chance next to every book’s odds shows not just which side to like, but whether the number available right now is good enough to bet, and where to get the best one. Over a season, betting only when the price clears the true chance, and always at the best line, is where long-run value comes from.

The real advantage comes from putting the three together rather than leaning on any one of them. Shot quality says what is repeatable, the sims show the full range of what can happen tonight, and the prices show where the market has it wrong. Together they separate signal from noise: backing the players and teams whose shot quality says “buy” even when the recent box scores say otherwise, and fading the ones riding a hot shooting streak the underlying shots don’t support.

Want to use the ShotQuality Sims Tool? Sign up for ShotQuality!

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