Total Domination: Week 13

by Steve Repsold (SteveRepsold) Last Updated 2018-12-01 14:43:32 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

A weekly look at games that could exceed or fall short of betting market expectations. Bettors can leverage recommendations at the sportsbook, while DFS players can use the specific player recommendations mentioned to their advantage. Steve Repsold deep dives each recommendation and advises us the level of bet confidence expressed in units (example: 2u = 2 units).

Week 13

This is an ugly week for betting totals. In most games this week, either the over / under is right where I think it should be, or the game is filled with too much uncertainty; we’ve got quarterback changes, injuries, and drama. This is a week where I’d recommend you keep your investment low.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals Over 45 1u

I hesitated to include this game because I may be too close to be objective, but I’ll you decide. I’m a longtime Florida Gator football diehard, which means that for better or worse, I’ve watched Jeff Driskel play more than most people. I’ve had an interest in him since, including his stopover at Louisiana Tech, and I’ve followed his lowkey consistent job in the NFL. I wasn’t his biggest fan when he was at Florida, actually, but the benefit of hindsight has exposed the questionable coaching he was saddled with. He was too tentative with the Gators, but even as soon as Louisiana Tech, I saw him become decisive with the football.

I saw the same thing when I reviewed the second half tape of last week’s game. Driskel looked sharp. He made several nice throws, including into some very tight windows. He worked his way through progressions, checked it down when he had to, and didn’t hold onto the ball too long (one sack in 30 dropbacks). He didn’t throw a pick, although he did throw at least one ball badly enough that it should have been picked. But for coming in cold off the bench, it was a damn fine performance.