Total Domination: Week 8

A weekly look at games that could exceed or fall short of betting market expectations. Bettors can leverage recommendations at the sportsbook, while DFS players can use the specific player recommendations mentioned to their advantage. Steve Repsold deep dives each recommendation and advises us the level of bet confidence expressed in units (example: 2u = 2 units).

Week 8

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Oakland Raiders Over 50.5 2u

The Colts are the NFL’s fastest team by a big margin at 23.94 seconds per offensive play run, almost two seconds faster than the next team. Last week, my hunch was that even their speed and pass-heavy approach couldn’t overcome a 43.5 total all on their own and I knew the Bills weren’t likely to contribute much. I was right, even though the Colts scored 37. But I think the Raiders can outperform the Bills. It’s not a very high bar.

Indianapolis will score. They’ve scored 21+ in all but one game and 34+ in three of the last four. Most of those defenses were better than the Raiders, who have allowed no less than 365 total yards in a game this year. They give up yards equally-freely by ground or by air. Perhaps most damning of all, they have an NFL-low seven sacks in six games. For shame, Jon Gruden.

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About the Author

SteveRepsold
Steve Repsold (SteveRepsold)

Steve has a background in interdisciplinary studies, including humanities, statistics, programming, and philosophy. His goal is to combine these skills into creative new ways of studying and analyzing sports, providing a fresh perspective on daily fantasy that incorporates elements of film study, advanced statistics, and game theory. He focuses on NFL, MLB, and college football, and he was a finalist at the 2015 FantasyAces College Football Championship. His work has been featured on TwoQBs, FantasyPros, and numberFire.