US Open Today | US Open Predictions for Taylor Fritz & More (US Open Odds)
Day three of the 2026 US Open is underway at Flushing Meadows, and no American storyline draws more eyes on the US Open today slate than Taylor Fritz.
The No. 9 seed steps onto Arthur Ashe Stadium against wildcard Darwin Blanch, and Polymarket’s US Open odds board makes the gap between them about as wide as it gets on tour.
Three other Americans also have first-round matches on today’s card, and their contracts carry far juicier payout odds than the near-lock price attached to Fritz’s match.
Below, we break down the best US Open picks today across four American matchups, complete with the current Polymarket promo code GRINDERS, good for a Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus offer for new users.
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Best Set Handicap Pick Today: Taylor Fritz -2.5 (Editor’s Pick)
We’re taking a position on Taylor Fritz to win this match by more than 2.5 games, priced at 71¢ on the board, implying a 71% chance.
Fritz enters as the No. 9 seed and world No. 10, riding eight wins in his last ten matches and a title run in Washington this summer.
Blanch is an 18-year-old wildcard ranked 245th, carrying a seven-match losing streak into Arthur Ashe Stadium and just 2 wins in 8 hard-court matches this season.
Given that gap, laying Fritz’s moneyline at 95.1¢ leaves almost no margin for error, so we’re taking the game handicap instead, where Fritz still needs to be dominant but not flawless.
Our $100 order filled at an average price of 72¢, slightly above the 71¢ board price since a larger order like this moves the market.
That works out to roughly 138.9 shares ($100 ÷ 72¢), each worth $1 if the position resolves in our favor, for a total to-win figure of $138.80.
- If Fritz wins by 3 games or more, the shares pay out $1 each, turning the $100 stake into $138.80, a profit of $38.80.
- If Fritz wins by 2 games or fewer, or loses outright, the entire $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This trade pays out at roughly 1.39x the stake, a modest but meaningful edge over betting the moneyline outright on a heavy favorite.
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Taylor Fritz vs Darwin Blanch: US Open Odds on the Moneyline
Polymarket’s moneyline market simply settles on which player wins the match outright, no matter the final score.
This contract has already seen $23.1K in trading volume, making it the most liquid line on today’s US Open odds board for this matchup.
Fritz Yes 95.1¢ (95.1% implied)
That price leans heavily on both the ranking gap and recent form, including his Washington title and a run to the 2024 US Open final, still the best major result of his career.
Blanch Yes 5.0¢ (5% implied)
The long-shot price here is more about variance than genuine form, his only tour win this season came on grass in Newport, and he’s dropped seven straight matches since.
US Open Odds Today: Fritz vs Blanch Spread and Total Predictions
Beyond the moneyline, Polymarket runs a full slate of game, set, and total contracts on this US Open matchup.
Game Spread: Fritz -7.5 (55¢) / Blanch +7.5 (46¢)
A 7.5-game handicap is an aggressive number to hang on a heavy favorite, and the near-even pricing suggests the market isn’t fully sold on Fritz steamrolling Blanch.
Set Handicap: Fritz -2.5 (71¢) / Blanch +2.5 (31¢)
This is the same line behind our Editor’s Pick above, still the cleanest way to back Fritz without paying moneyline prices north of 95¢.
Total Sets: Over 3.5 (31¢) / Under 3.5 (72¢)
The market leans toward a three-set finish, in line with the talent gap on paper.
Total Games: Over 38.5 (49¢) / Under 38.5 (99¢)
This line shows $0 in trading volume, and the 49¢/99¢ split doesn’t add up to a coherent two-sided market, a sign pricing hasn’t caught up to real order flow yet. The nearby Completed Match contract (Yes 99¢ / No 99¢) shows the same pattern; treat both as inactive rather than sharp signals until volume shows up.
Taylor Fritz vs Darwin Blanch: Set-by-Set US Open Predictions
Polymarket also breaks out winner and total-games contracts for each individual set, though liquidity is thin across the board.
- Set 1 (Fritz 88¢, Blanch 15¢; Total Games Over 9.5: 49¢, Under 9.5: 59¢): Fritz’s price dips slightly below his match-winner number, a normal pattern since even heavy favorites occasionally drop an opening set.
- Set 2 (Fritz 87¢, Blanch 17¢; Total Games Over 8.5: 99¢, Under 8.5: 99¢): Pricing here mirrors Set 1, with the Total Games line showing the same two-sided-at-99¢ quirk seen elsewhere on the board.
- Set 3 (Fritz 90¢, Blanch 14¢; Total Games Over 8.5: 99¢, Under 8.5: 99¢): If the match reaches a third set, Fritz’s experience edge shows up as a slightly higher price than the first two sets.
- Set 4 (Fritz 99¢, Blanch 99¢; Total Games Over 8.5: 99¢, Under 8.5: 99¢): Every line here sits at 99¢ with no real volume behind it, essentially a placeholder market for a fourth set the board doesn’t expect.
These deeper-set contracts carry little to no trading volume so far, so treat them as speculative long shots rather than sharp signals.
Why Taylor Fritz Is the American to Watch in Today’s US Open Predictions
Fritz arrives at this US Open on the back of a Washington title this summer, part of a run that’s seen him win 8 of his last 10 matches.
He’s no stranger to the pressure of a home Slam either, having reached the 2024 US Open final, still the best Grand Slam result of his career.
A win over Blanch would set up a projected fourth-round meeting with Italy’s Flavio Cobolli, with a potential semifinal against top seed Alexander Zverev further down the draw.
Most US Open predictions this week peg Fritz as the American with the clearest path to a deep run, and Fritz himself has echoed that, calling this his best shot yet at a major title.
This year’s field is deep, but few American storylines carry as much weight as Fritz’s does heading into the second week.
Taylor Fritz Price Analysis: What’s Moving the US Open Odds
The 95.1¢ moneyline price is almost entirely a function of the ranking and form gap, Fritz sits at world No. 10 while Blanch is 245th and riding a seven-match losing streak.
That gap is exactly why the Set Handicap and Game Spread lines carry more useful signal than the moneyline itself, they ask a sharper question than just who wins.
The Total Games and Completed Match lines showing $0 in volume and odd 49¢/99¢ splits are a reminder that not every contract on a lightly-traded first-round match is fully priced yet.
Bettors browsing prediction market apps will see similar patterns across other lopsided first-round matches this week.
More US Open Today Picks: Value Plays Beyond Fritz
Fritz’s 95.1¢ price doesn’t leave much room for a payout, but three other matches on the US Open today board price out very differently.
None of these three players are the kind of favorite Fritz is, so the same $100 stake buys a lot more shares, and a lot more upside if the pick hits.
Value Pick: The Qualifier Chasing a Second Straight Win
Nishesh Basavareddy, a 21-year-old making just his second career US Open main draw, is priced at 73¢ on the moneyline against Australia’s Tristan Schoolkate.
He already beat Schoolkate in straight sets earlier this year, and the Set Handicap line (Basavareddy -1.5, 61¢) offers a better price for essentially the same read on this match.
Value Pick: The Wildcard Off a Cincinnati Win
Wildcard entrant Michael Zheng is actually favored here at 58¢, not underdog pricing, but it’s still a far more lucrative number than laying Fritz’s chalk.
Zheng beat Fabian Marozsan in three sets at the Cincinnati Open just weeks ago, and his Set Handicap line (Zheng -1.5, 43¢) offers a better price for backing the same side.
Long Shot Pick: Staying Competitive Against a Red-Hot Peruvian
Marcos Giron is the clear underdog here at 40¢ against red-hot Peruvian Ignacio Buse, fresh off a title in Winston-Salem and priced at 61¢ on the moneyline.
Backing Giron outright is a real long shot, but his +1.5 Set Handicap line (58¢) offers a far more lucrative way to back him simply staying competitive rather than needing the outright win.
There are dozens of other US Open matches on the board today beyond these four, and the pattern holds across most of them, moneylines on heavy favorites pay little, while spread and set-handicap lines on the same players often pay much better.
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US Open Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
Taylor Fritz should be too much for Darwin Blanch today, and the moneyline price already reflects that almost perfectly, which is exactly why the Set Handicap is the more interesting way to trade it.
The bigger opportunity on today’s board may be the other three American matches, where none of the players are priced anywhere near Fritz’s 95.1¢, and the payouts show it.
These four matches make up the best value on the US Open today board, running from the heaviest favorite on the board to its biggest long shot.
That’s the shape of today’s US Open predictions across the American contingent.
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