NFL Regular Season Stat Projections

This data is intended to help make futures bets and fantasy pick’em lineups on sites likes PrizePicks and Underdog. It is the statistical expectation of every relevant player for the 2026 NFL season.

Futures prop bets are a popular form of betting in which the market maker sets a value for a given proposition. We must predict whether the final statistics for each player will be over or under the value at the end of the 2026 season. If you are successful in winning, the sportsbook or fantasy pick’em operator will award you winnings based on the stated odds.

We use our decades of combined fantasy football and data science experience to create a statistical model for projecting future performance.

We accomplish this by using millions of data points that include but are not limited to:

• Historical player usage: targets, touches, and opportunity
• Play-calling tendency, including situational run vs. pass ratios
• Route participation
• Pass rate over expectation data
• Coaching changes and tendency
• Offensive line performance metrics
• Defensive line performance metrics
• Turnover and penalty data
• Pace and play volume data
• Scoring and drive efficiency data
• Passing depth and efficiency
• Receiving depth and efficiency
• QB designed runs vs. scrambling yards
• Age and injury history
• Positional rushing, target, and touchdown distributions
• Alignment and personnel usage data
• Opponent schedule and strength of competition

This information is the backbone of our projections, but because of the speculative nature associated with the NFL from season to season, we must apply our own expertise in finalizing the inputs that formulate the projections. We have a team of data science and fantasy football experts that consider all factors when making these inputs. Player data is the spine of the projections, but important elements like expected usage rates and depth charts are manually set by our team. We ensure every single projection is crafted with the best possible combination of prior data and forward-looking human analysis.