Alex Wood Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If you’re looking to pay down for pitching on FanDuel, Alex Wood is probably your primary option. Costing $8.4K on FD and $900 less on DK, he projects as a top three value on either site. Wood has a 30.1 K% over his last five starts, but has only completed six innings once over this span and three times on the season, despite an 18.5 K-BB%, 50.2 GB% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE. We can blame a 4.21 ERA on a .324 BABIP and 68.5 LOB%. A 3.83 DRA is his only estimator within half a run of actual results, but his pitch counts are all over the place. They often reach beyond 90 pitches, but he’s still been unable to complete six innings more consistently. There’s something going on with efficiency here and he’ll need to hit six innings to max out his value on FanDuel. One concern is that opposing hitters have a .345 wOBA against his sinker (46.1%, 0.6 RV/100) and the Cubs (105 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs LHP) have mashed fastballs this year (0.55 wFB/C). Nobody said it was going to be risk free.

Another highly volatile arm with a wide range of potential outcomes, who projects as a top value tonight is Yusei Kikuchi. Hewalked five of 14 Athletics without striking out a single one on July 5th and then hit the IL with a neck issue, but looked great in a five innings rehab start. Kikuchi still has a 25.1 K%, but just three outings of six innings this year (all Quality Starts), a 13.9 BB% and 21.9 HR/FB with only 14 of 28 barrels (16.1%) leaving the yard, averaging a 92.8 mph EV and 51.1% of his contact at least 95 mph off the bat. Contact inclusive estimators (FIP, xERA) are more than half a run above his 5.12 ERA, while contact neutral ones are more than half a run below. Kikuchi has just one above average pitch this year and it’s a changeup (-1.3 RV/100) that he throws just 13.1% of the time. Thankfully, the Tigers are near the bottom of the league against almost every pitch, but they’ve been pretty good against LHP (105 wRC+, 21.6 K%). Kikuchi is within $200 of $7.5K on either site.

Spencer Howard projects well from a point per dollar value merely because the Angels have a board/league high 27 K% vs RHP. He has struck out nine of 88 batters (5.2 SwStr%) with 10 walks since returning to the majors and has allowed four home runs and 12 runs (11 earned) in 18.2 innings. More than half of those innings (9.2) have been against Oakland. He has double digit walk (10%) and barrel rates (12.6%) on the season as well. Howard’s primary secondary pitch is an awful cutter (37.8%, .473 wOBA), which is a pitch the Angels have been second best in the league against (1.65 wFC/C), though they struggle against standard fastballs (-0.49 wFB/C). It’s tough to feel good about Howard in this or any spot, but he’s nearly free on DraftKings.

Kutter Crawford is one of the few things working out in Boston these days. Over five starts and one long relief outing, he’s registered an impressive 21.1 K-BB% with a 3.16 ERA and estimators within half a run. His last two starts were his first Quality Starts, but by the vaguest of definitions (3 ER in 6 IP each). His work in the rotation has actually been a lot better than it had been in the pen earlier in the year. Kutter likes to throw a…get this…cutter 30.2% of the time (0.4 RV/100, .347 wOBA, 23.4 Whiff%), while this is a pitch Cleveland has struggled with (-1.22 wFC/C). However, the Guardians have a 108 wRC+ and board/league low 17.5 K% vs RHP, while Crawford will have to deal with the hitter friendly environment and weather of Fenway with some rain risk in this game. Costing $7.1K on FanDuel and just $6.1K on DraftKings though, he projects as one of the better pitching values on the board.

We have an interesting dynamic on Friday where many of tonight’s top projected pitching values are also some of the most expensive and top projected arms overall. A couple of exceptions in the $8K range on FanDuel, who may be able to stand on their own are Alex Wood and Jose Urquidy. While Wood essentially broke out of his mini-slump two starts back with one run over five innings in Arizona, he put the stamp on it last time out, striking out eight of 25 Padres over seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball. He also got his ground ball rate back up to 50.2% on the season with a 17.3 K-BB% and just 6.0% Barrels/BBE. His 4.43 ERA is more than half a run above estimators ranging from a 3.23 xFIP to a 3.89 DRA due to a .326 BABIP and 68.5 LOB%. He’s only completed six innings three times though (and seven innings in two of those). The Brewers have struggled against LHP (93 wRC+, 23.0 K%), while Wood is tonight’s second best projected FD value for $8.3K. He’s a bit lower on the board on DraftKings for $300 more.

Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA with estimators even higher, due to just a 17.0 K%, while allowing 10.0% Barrels/BBE. He does somehow have five straight Quality Starts, including eight innings of three run ball (but just two strikeouts) against tonight’s opponents, the Oakland A’s (71 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP). This is probably the only opponent in the league and $8K+ Urquidy would project well against, but that’s the situation he finds himself in tonight.

Your lower priced, DraftKings SP2 types are a bit more difficult tonight. Taylor Hearn ($6.1K) projects as a top point per dollar value, but was shipped out after allowing 27 runs over seven starts (33.1 IP) with a 6.3 K-BB% and 11.8% Barrels/BBE. He’s responded by striking out 16 of 40 AAA batters, but also allowing two home runs with five walks. His best season estimator is a 4.71 xFI and the Mariners have a 111 wRC+ (23.5 K%) vs LHP.

Tyler Wells ($7.4K) projects as a top five DraftKings value. We thought the Orioles were loosening the reins, but he’s now been below 90 pitches in two of his last three starts, though he’s hit 90 in two of his last four as well. At some point, the 10.6 SwStr% with a league average 15.5 SwStr% is going to register more strikeouts, but right now, nobody is clamoring for his 16.6 K% anyway. He has a 3.29 ERA and 3.39 xERA (20 popups!), but everything else is above four and we don’t really know what kind of workload he’s going to provide from start to start. Optimistically, he gets a park upgrade and faces a banged up Tampa Bay lineup with a 24.7 K% (99 wRC+) vs RHP.

Zach Plesac ($7.2K) projects as a top seven DK value. He has struck out 21 of his last 94 batters with a 13.7 SwStr%. There were all against AL Central opponents, though the Tigers registered the fewest strikeouts (three) of the four starts. We’ve seen him spike like this before, only to inevitably revert. We’ve also seen him register double digit swinging strike rates with strikeout rates below 20%, which he’s also doing again this year (1.7 K/SwStr). With a below average ground ball rate (40.6%) and 90.7 mph EV, he’s allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE. A 5.55 xERA is about a run above all other estimators, which are all above his 3.99 ERA. Again, it’s all about matchup though. The Tigers have 69 wRC+, 24.0 K%, 6.6 BB% and 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP.

If you’re really just looking to punt, Andre Pallante ($5.7K) doesn’t miss many bats (15.1 K%), but generates tons of ground balls (63.2%) and has allowed just eight barrels (3.8%). Estimators range from a 3.75 xFIP to a 4.47 DRA, well above his 3.18 ERA (84.3 LOB%), but the Reds (86 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP) have been exposed in road games this year (78 wRC+, 8.1 HR/FB).

With the most expensive pitchers on the board facing some difficult situations, this might be the ideal slate to pay down for pitchers tonight. While it might be wrong to call Alex Wood a pay down, per say, he is less than $10K on both sites and even less than $9K on FanDuel. He’s also in a strong enough spot that he may be one of the top pitchers on the board. If people were waiting for him to crack, Wood has allowed 13 runs over his last 19.1 innings, but with a healthy 16.8 K-BB% and 55 GB% that are very close to his season rates. A 4.04 xERA matches his 4.03 ERA. All additional estimators are below four, but within half a run of his actual results. He’s at home tonight, where the Diamondbacks will visit. While only two batters in the projected Arizona lineup exceed a 20 K% vs LHP, we’re dealing with a lot of small sample sizes and just three batters above a .300 wOBA and .100 ISO vs LHP this season. Wood should be able to shut this lineup down.

The Eduardo Rodriguez Regression Tour hit a bump against the Blue Jays two starts back, but got right back on track in a major way, striking out 10 of 21 Tigers last time out. In fact, ERod has struck out 27 of his last 69 batters with a 15 SwStr%. He’s still sitting on an ERA above five (5.33) with estimators all more than a run and a half lower (.367 BABIP, 65.7 LOB%). He’s at home, in another positive run environment, against an improved offense against LHP with the addition of Nelson Cruz, but five of nine projected Tampa Bay batters still have a 23.5 K% or higher vs LHP this season and Rodriguez costs just $8K on FanDuel.

With 10 runs over his last 13.1 innings, Logan Gilbert’s ERA has moved above four, though all estimators remain below three, some more than half a run below his actual ERA. If he’s had any issues, it’s been in the contact profile with a 90.7 mph EV and 35.3 GB%, but he’s still only allowed 7.9% Barrels/BBE to go along with a 21.8 K-BB%. His recent issues appear to be BABIP (.361) and strand rate (60.4%) related. Seattle is one of the most negative run environments in baseball. The projected Texas lineup includes four batters above a 23.5 K% vs RHP, just one above a .182 ISO and two above a .315 wOBA. Gilbert costs less than $9K on FanDuel as well.

There’s no doubt about it. This is a difficulty priced pitching slate, especially on DraftKings, where it’s hard to find anyone below $9K in a decent spot or with much upside. For those looking for a cheap SP2, one guy who may be worth a flyer at a very cheap price is Aaron Ashby ($4.4K). DraftKings is including the double header on their main slate and while the weather is not at all pitcher friendly at Wrigley today, the Cubbies have been producing lineups that have been tough to look at recently and Ashby struck out 36% (17 SwStr%) with a 67.2 GB% in 62.1 AAA innings this year.

It would be space and time consuming to cover all of the marginally priced pitchers in high upside matchups on a full slate, especially considering that many of them serve low strikeout pitchers, but here is a look at some of the more playable arms in favorable spots on Tuesday night. While we generally don’t think of the Braves as offering high upside, they do have a 25.2 K% vs RHP. Aaron Nola’s price tag has dropped because he has a 26.7 K% himself, which is fine, but not elite. He also pitches in a tough park in Philly, but at just $8.3K on FanDuel, offers enough of a shot at a Quality Start to be a decent alternative to pitchers costing around $2K more tonight.

Alex Wood saw his velocity drop last time out and was pounded by the Angels for seven runs over 3.2 innings, walking four of 19 batters, striking out just two. He’s otherwise having a fantastic season, striking out a quarter of batters faced (24.9%, 12.9 SwStr%) with 56.2% of his contact on the ground and just 6.5% Barrels/BBE. Estimators are all within half a run of his 3.48 ERA. Three of the first six batters projected in the Texas lineup tonight are above a 27 K% vs LHP since 2020 and the entire offense has just a 56 wRC+ over the last week. Wood costs less than $9K on either site. On the other side of that game, the San Francisco lineup is slightly banged up and only two of nine projected betters are below a 22.6 K% vs RHP since 2020. Jordan Lyles is highly erratic, but does cost just $5.3K on DraftKings with five starts of at least six Ks with three runs or less.

Marco Gonzales is in Detroit (75 wRC+, 30.6 K% vs LHP. His season numbers are awful, but he did return from the IL to strike out six of 15 A’s with an 86.3 mph EV. If early season woes were due to injury, he would be undervalued at less than $8K. His opponent, Matthew Boyd, costs just $6.5K on DraftKings. Boyd has just a 19.5 K% this year, but 22.1% with an 11.2 SwStr% over the last month, which is just below league average. Four projected Mariners exceed a 31 K% vs LHP since 2020. The Yankees have a 95 wRC+ and 25.9 K% vs RHP. If it’s time to think of them offering high upside, especially on the road in Minnesota, Michael Pineda (25 K%) has a 13.6 SwStr% over the last month and costs just $7K on FanDuel, but rarely goes through the lineup much more than twice. Pablo Lopez ($8.7K) has huge home/road splits and a great matchup in Miami (Rockies 57 wRC+ on the road, 69 wRC+ vs RHP). Four of eight projected Colorado bats have at least a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020. Sonny Gray is $8.4K or less and gets the Brewers (81 wRC+, 26 K% vs RHP). The concern here is that Gray has a career low 45.5 GB% and has allowed five of his eight home runs (21.1 HR/FB) at home, but his 29.4 K% should soften the blow here.

Alex Wood struck out just one Pirate in his last start (three walks) and 17.1% of batters in six starts, but with a 10.1 SwStr% that’s actually a touch above his 9.9% career rate. The real concern is a 41.7 GB% that’s more than four points below his next worse season and 7.5 points below his career average. The result has been eight HRs, a mark that’s already halfway to his career high in just 29.2 innings. True, the transition to one of the most power friendly parks in the league hasn’t helped, but half of his HRs have come on the road in Washington and Atlanta. His Statcast numbers provide some reason for optimism in that only 6.1% of his contact has been Barreled and a board low 31.3% of it has been above a 95+ mph EV. While his xwOBA is 28 points better than his actual results, a .353 mark is still nothing to brag about. Wood is simply in the top run prevention spot on the board tonight. While the Marlins don’t strike out a ton vs LHP (22.5%), they have just a 5.7 BB% and 79 wRC+. They also have just an 11.9 HR/FB at home and very little power in the lineup in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Wood costs less than $8K on either site.

On a slate with 10 different games, it would normally be wise to avoid pitchers who are making their first start four months into the season. However, good pitching matchups are few and far between on this slate, and there’s some reason to like Alex Wood this afternoon in what looks to be a good spot. Wood did look decent in 4 MiLB rehab starts, pitching to a 3.18 ERA, striking out 11 and walking just 2 in 11 and 2/3 innings. His most recent start saw him throw 6 innings, giving up just 1 earned run while striking out 4, walking none and giving up 4 hits. Since 2017, Wood has a 3.20 ERA, 3.53 xFIP and 22.9% K rate compared to a 6.2% BB rate over 304 innings pitched. Today he gets a matchup with a Rockies team that is just atrocious on the road; they have a 2nd-worst 71 wRC+ and 27.7% K rate on the road this year. The Rockies will have just one batter in the lineup (Ian Desmond) who has an xwOBA greater than .305 on the road this year. Wood will also have the advantage of a pitcher friendly umpire in Bill Miller this afternoon. Wood comes with an $8.1k price on Draftkings and $7.5k on Fanduel and is certainly an option in all contests. The Rockies currently have a 4.68 implied line vs. Wood and the Reds.

Tonight's holiday slate features just five games. One pitcher is making his first major league start, another his second. A third pitcher has been on the DL all season (one start). A fourth has been on the DL since August 17th. A fifth hasn't pitched in the majors in three months and hasn't started in four. There's also whatever the Rays are doing. The remaining choices are Erasmo Ramirez, Zack Godley, Alex Wood and Jacob deGrom. Wood and deGrom are facing each other. Wood (21 K%, 3.89 SIERA, .301 xwOBA) is facing a lineup with a 78 wRC+, 24.8 K% and 8.9 HR/FB in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. He went seven innings in Texas last time out and though he had just four starts in August, he's been above 95 pitches in five of his last seven outings. DeGrom (31.5 K%, 2.87 SIERA, .257 xwOBA) is facing a much more difficult offense (113 wRC+, 15.6 K% vs RHP) in that same park. He's struck out at least nine in six straight starts. Godley (24 K%, 4.02 SIERA, .344 xwOBA) is at home against the Padres (81 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP). He allowed six runs to them in San Diego three starts back, but has at least six strikeouts in nine straight starts, though more than seven only once in that span. Considering cost and matchup, any of these three arms are reasonable options, perhaps the only reasonable options. It will be interesting to see whom players decide to side with here.

Zack Wheeler was not at his best in Baltimore last time out, but still allowed just one run in five innings. His 24.7 K% over the last month is fourth best on the board. His 11.1 SwStr% or the season is third best. He also has the lowest aEV on the board as well (85.1 mph). He's getting expensive, but has a great matchup (Giants 77 wRC+, 17.1 K-BB% on the road, 15.8 K-BB%, 9.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 33 wRC+, 22.3 K-BB%, 2.5 HR/FB last seven days) in one of the most negative run environments on the board. Alex Wood doesn't have the highest ceiling, but one of the higher floors on the slate. He'd quietly gone over 100 pitches in three of four starts before his most recent outing. He's allowed more than three ERs just three times this year and pitches in the most negative run environment on the board. Chris Archer's 13.3 SwStr% is second best among regular starters tonight. His 89.6 mph aEV is highest on the board, but the Braves don’t have a lot of power (11 HR/FB vs RHP). The problem they present is a lack of strikeouts though (20.5% vs RHP). Archer does cost less than $8K thought. Kevin Gausman has exactly two strikeouts in five of his last eight starts and the Pirates have just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, but considering there are no high strikeout pitchers facing high strikeout offenses and that he's allowed just six runs in 19 innings behind an improved defense since being traded, the little upside he may have may be worth $7.5K or less. Derek Holland has the fourth best strikeout rate on the board (24.1%). The Mets are the hottest offense on the board (154 wRC+ last seven days), but have just an 8.5 HR/FB at home and 77 wRC+ with a 25.5 K% vs LHP.

If dropping down to the middle of the board, Alex Wood may be one of the more interesting options for less than $9K tonight. While still not throwing 100 pitches per starts, he's been above 90 in three of his last four League average strikeout (22.3%) and ground ball rates (45.6%)…well, league average almost everything (87.7 mph aEV, .305 xwOBA) makes him essentially a league average pitcher, who gets a park boost from one of the most negative run environments in baseball against an offense that's average at best, which makes it a decent spot with a decent floor most likely. Nathan Eovaldi costs just $6.3K on FanDuel. He's run through a tough schedule since returning (Nationals twice, Astros, Yankees, Mariners), but gets a break in Miami tonight (84 wRC+, 9.0 HR/FB at home, 87 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% vs RHP) . He’s completed six innings in four of his starts and three straight. Luis Castillo has allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts in which he’s completed six innings just once. He’s allowed 18 HRs in 17 starts, but still has a 13.7 SwStr% and is facing the White Sox (18.5 K-BB% vs RHP and 19.1 K-BB% over the last seven days) for $5.7K on DraftKings. Carlos Martinez has walked a total of three over his last two starts and struck out eight lat time out. His strikeout rate is not much above average and there's always a chance he could walk the park, but costs $8.1K or less in Arizona (81 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP with just a 90 wRC+ and 12.5 HR/FB in humidor land this year). Wei-Yin Chen costs just $4.6K on DK in an extremely negative run environment and decent contact management (4.8% Barrels/BBE) against the Rays. A really sneak SP2 could be Anibal Sanchez (23.2 K%, .300 xwOBA, 84.5 mph aEV), who's cutter is being thrown 17% of the time towards solid results (.229 xwOBA) and seems to have abolished the terrible reverse split that's plagued him for several seasons now (.263 wOBA, two HRs this year). Ownership may be non-existent in an incredibly high risk spot against the Yankees.