Brett Gardner Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

So far in 2019 Trent Thornton has posted a 5.55 ERA with a 5.11 xFIP, 4.99 SIERA, 11.9% K-BB, 41% FB rate, 1.57 HR/9 and a 10% SwStr. Per Statcast, he’s allowed a .337 xwOBA with a 7.7% barrel rate and 88 MPH aEV. Not completely terrible stats, but certainly no match for a Yankees lineup that was already firing on all cylinders (143 wRC+ over the past 14 days) and has now returned Gary Sanchez to the lineup. Gio Urshela (.395 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Aaron Judge (.394), Gary Sanchez (.379), DJ Lemahieu (.363), Gleyber Torres (.340) and Brett Gardner (.321) are all great options in the Yankee lineup this afternoon. Urshela has been scorching hot over the past 2 weeks with a .568 xwOBA; Austin Romine (.450), DJ LeMahieu (.444) and Mike Tauchman (.396) have also swung the bat very well of late. Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres are both great values at a price of just $4.4k on Draftkings. Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner are available under $5k on DK as well, while Austin Romine is just $3.9k. The Yankees currently have a 6.28 implied total; they could be chalky on this slate but are a good play in both cash and GPPS nonetheless.

Sean Reid-Foley has a 2.49 ERA through 21.2 innings due to impressive contact suppression (6.7 HR/FB, 4.5% Barrels/BBE, 27.7% 95+ mph EV). There’s certainly some regression due those numbers, especially the HR rate and that could be a big problem because he’s struck out just four more batters than he’s walked (18/14) through 99 batters faced with a 45.1 Z-O-Swing%. Most estimators are more than double his 2.49 ERA so far due not only to the HR rate, but also a .266 BABIP and half of his runs being unearned. The high walk rate has been a staple of his professional career, though he has generally put up above average strikeout rates throughout the minors. The projected Yankee lineup features only three or four of their projected started nine this season and has for the past couple of weeks. They are down to second or third options at many positions, yet they are currently the hottest offense in the majors after destroying Baltimore pitching this week. They lead the league with both a 175 wRC+ and 26.5 HR/FB over the last week and are fairly affordable on either site with a 5.84 implied run line that’s third best on the board. Two of the hottest bats include Giovanny Urshela (147 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Brett Gardner (114 wRC+, .236 ISO), who aren’t generally who come to mind when picturing Yankee sluggers, yet, they’ve each generated much more power than anyone would expect. Urhela has a 340 wRC+ over the last week, in which he’s homered five times in 25 PAs.

If you perhaps thought that the mighty exploits of the no name Yankees from earlier this season was due to regress, it might seem a reasonable assumption. But so far, it would also be wrong. With the majority of their normal starting lineup back on the IL, the Yankees are featuring lineups with Mike Ford, Brett Gardner, Austin Romine and Mike Tauchman somewhere in the middle...and all of them homered last night. Gardner and Tauchman “slapped” HRs the opposite way, while the Yankees have now hit in excess of 30 HRs at Camden this year. Part ball, part environment, part weather, why wouldn’t we expect this to continue on Tuesday night against Asher Wojciechowski. Though he’s struck out 29.6% of batters faced through six starts, he’s also allowed seven HRs with a 26.4 GB% and 12.6% Barrels/BBE. The latter the highest mark on the board tonight among those with at least one start. Wojciechowski has dominated RHBs (.248 wOBA, .281 xwOBA), but struggled with LHBs (.361 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), but do to the extreme fly ball rate, the seven HRs have been fairly evenly split. The Yankees are one of three teams above six implied runs (6.18) and less than a tenth of a run off the top spot tonight. While Didi Gregorius is the top LH bat in this lineup (126 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brett Gardner has become somewhat of a power hitter in this juiced ball environment as well (111 wRC+, .224 ISO). In fact, he and Tauchman (117 wRC+, .252 ISO) are the hottest bats in this lineup, both exceeding a 220 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week. If either sees themselves bumped up towards the top or middle of the lineup tonight, they’re both within $100 of $3K on FanDuel. Mike Ford (71 wRC+, .118 ISO) also homered last night to add to his 23 with a 149 wRC+ at AAA this year.

The Yankees have an implied total over 7 for the 2nd day in a row, facing Clayton Richard at home in the Bronx. Richard has had a tough year that has seen him post a 6.23 ERA, 5.27 xFIP and 5.55 SIERA with just a 1.6% K-BB and miniscule 5.9% SwStr. Richard has a very wide platoon split; since 2018 he has allowed a .370 xwOBA to righties while only allowing a .292 xwOBA to lefties. Unfortunately for him, the Yankees will stack their lineup with 7 right-handed bats. Roth’s WeatherEdge (available to premium subscribers) also sees a sharp jump in homeruns and total offense in the Bronx this afternoon, further sweetening this matchup for the Yanks. Aaron Judge (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Luke Voit (.397), Edwin Encarnacion (.390), DJ LeMahieu (.378), Gary Sanchez (.352), Gleyber Torres (.295) and Aaron Hicks (.291) are all great options. Brett Gardner (.283) and Didi Gregorious (.201) are also in play. Despite the implied total over 7, all Yankees bats besides LeMahieu and Judge can be had on Draftkings for less than $5k. Voit, Encarnacion and Gregorious are all $4.3k or less.

Aaron Sanchez owns a 4.9 K-BB%, 6.16 ERA, 5.57 SIERA, 7.93 DRA, .360 xwOBA, 41.7% 95+ mph EV and career low 49 GB%. The Yankees own a 117 wRC+, 9.8 BB% and 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP. A 7.12 implied run line for the Yankees is one of the largest seen outside Coors and currently more than a full run above every other team outside that park tonight. The projected Yankee starting lineup does not offer a single batter below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Leadoff man DJ LeMahieu (110 wRC+, .156 ISO) is the only batter below a .178 ISO as well. Batters from either side of the plate own at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Sanchez over the last 12 months. There are likely no poor DFS choices in this lineup, though it can be argued someone like Brett Gardner (101 wRC+, .203 ISO) could be over-valued at $4.7K on DraftKings in the ninth spot. The Yankees should mash in this spot.

Sanchez has largely struggled all year and has certainly not improved of late as he has a 13.05 ERA, 6.27 SIERA, 5.96 xFIP and 0 K-BB% over the past 30 days. He has a 6.16 ERA, 5.33 xFIP and 5.57 SIERA with a 4.9% K-BB on the year. Sanchez still induces a lot of groundballs and keeps the ball out of the air (49% GB rate, 28.3% FB rate this year) but the K/BB ratio is awful, and he allows way too many baserunners as evidenced by his 1.75 WHIP. After having very wide platoon splits throughout his career, Sanchez has actually been worse vs. RHB this year with a .377 wOBA vs. righties compared to a .347 wOBA vs. lefties. The Yankees currently have the highest implied total on the slate at 7.07. Gleyber Torres (137 wRC+, .251 ISO vs. RHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (137 wRC+, .186 ISO), Gio Urshela (137 wRC+, .186 ISO), Brett Gardner (125 wRC+, .258 ISO), Didi Gregorious (125 wRC+, .167 ISO), Gary Sanchez (123 wRC+, .315 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (115 wRC+, .265 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (110 wRC+, .263 ISO) are all options in the Yanks’ projected lineup. Aaron Judge has a 110 wRC+ / .263 ISO vs. RHP this year in 107 PA but has a 139 wRC+ / .243 ISO vs. RHP since 2018. DJ Lemahieu has been their hottest hitter over the past 30 days with a 196 wRC+. Besides DJ Lemahieu, all Yankees bats are available under $5k on Draftkings tonight.

Brad Peacock and James Paxton sounds like a pitcher’s duel or at least a high upside daily fantasy pitching matchup. They have a combined 54.7 K% with neither owning an xwOBA above .300. Take a closer look though. Peacock combines just an 8.8 SwStr% with a 90 mph aEV, but somehow has allowed just 6.7% Barrels/BBE and struck out 24.2% of batters faced. Over the last month, he’s down to a 21.2 K% with a 4.90 FIP even though his ERA has remained below four. On the season, he has a 5.01 DRA. There appears to be some luck in his game. However, since he has a massive platoon split over the last calendar year (RHBs .251 wOBA, LHBS .373), the best bets to exploit this potential edge appear to be Brett Gardner (97 wRC+, 188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), if out of the leadoff spot, Aaron Hicks (133 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Didi Gregorius (125 wRC+, .232 ISO). With Aaron Judge (113 wRC+, .174 ISO) expected back tonight, the Yankee lineup could lean predominantly right-handed and if this is the case, it would be something more in Peacock’s favor, although Yankee righties hit same-handed pitching extremely well.

James Paxton is one of the highest upside pitchers in the league, but does not escape scrutiny here either. He rebounded from troublesome starts against the Mets and Blue Jays to fan seven White Sox in six innings with two runs, but his 5.71 ERA since returning comes with a 4.61 SIERA and FIP, along with a .334 xwOBA. He has a 41.4% 95+ mph EV mark on the season and even admitted that his knee still wasn’t 100% upon returning from the DL. A Houston lineup not at full strength still has enough right-handed pop to punish a compromised pitcher (RHBs have a .304 wOBA against Paxton last calendar year). Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .255 ISO) is back, joining Alex Bregman (180 wRC+, .313 ISO), Yulieski Gurriel (135 wRC+, .210 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (117 wRC+, .194 ISO) and even Jake Marisnick (176 wRC+, .286 ISO) in southpaw destruction over the last 12 months. Important to note that the wind is blowing out to right tonight, giving a dangerous park a further run and power boost tonight.

Nate Karns will be the opener for the Orioles and figures to throw 1-2 innings. It seems that Jimmy Yacabonis (RHP) is the best bet for long relief duty out of the Orioles pen. Yacabonis was bad in 40 IP in the majors last year (5.22 xFIP, .340 xWOBA) and projects for a 5.36 ERA this year per Steamer. Even if Yacabonis doesn’t see action, there isn’t a good enough arm in the Orioles pen to shut down this Yankees lineup. The Yankees have a 5.79 implied line and a lineup full of viable options. Aaron Judge is always in play at home (196 career wRC+ at Yankee stadium) despite the high price tag. Brett Gardner is leading off and is a nice value at $4.3k on DK and just $2.9k on FD. Luke Voit had a .436 xWOBA last year and will bat 4th in the Yanks’ potent lineup. Gary Sanchez (batting 6th) is coming off a seemingly down 2018, but a .342 xWOBA last year vs. RHP suggests not to worry.