Carlos Gomez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Kevin Gausman has generally been a guy who hasn't lived up to the potential with an ERA above his estimators throughout his career. This year, it's well below his estimators due to a .244 BABIP and 87.9 LOB%. The HR/FB is still at 17% with just a 20% strikeout rate. While his fastball usage has dropped below 60% for the first time this year, he still throws a lot of them 58% and the Rays have made substantial improvements against the pitch through roster construction this year. It's right there on Fangraphs. Filter for team stats through Pitch Value and the Rays are fourth (+18.2 wFB). The smart thing to do would be for Gausman to throw more sliders (17.5% this year) because they're terrible against those (-14.9 wSL), but he has to throw some fastballs, which could provide some inexpensive offensive production tonight. While Gausman has historically been a pronounced reverse split pitcher, that hasn't really been the case since the start of last year. There's very little separation in a wOBA/xwOBA right around .340 against batters from either side of the plate. PlateIQ tells us that Wilson Ramos (95 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been the best fastball hitter since 2016, though C.J. Cron (100 wRC+, .192 ISO) has been a quality bat against the pitch as well (.348 wOBA). Denard Span (115 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Carlos Gomez (112 wRC+, .218 ISO) have been the top two bats against RHP over the last calendar year. Matt Duffy has a 133 wRC+, but just a .303 xwOBA in a smaller sample. Span is the only one in the lineup above $3.8K on either site.

The Rays have just a moderate 4.18 implied run line and not a lot of offensive talent, but Alex Cobb signed late, missing a chunk of spring training he's looked like he's needed in two starts for the Orioles so far (7 IP - 15 R - 12 ER - 3 HR - 2 BB - 4 K - 42 BF). Players should be able to find some value in a Tampa Bay lineup without a single batter priced above $3.6K on either site. Batters from either side exceed a .330 xwOBA and 35 Hard% against Cobb since last season with left-handed batters producing ground balls at a clip eight points lower than right-handed ones. Denard Span (114 wRC+, .179 ISO), Carlos Gomez (109 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Joey Wendle (128 wRC+, .211 ISO) have been your competent bats since last season against RHP. There may even be some stolen base upside too according to one of our newest premium tools, Stolen Base Threat Ratings.

After tattooing the generous Martin Perez last night, the Rays face another struggling left-hander in Matt Moore tonight. The interesting thing about Moore is that he has a reverse split with LHBs above a .400 wOBA against him since last season. The Rays will still stack eight right-handed batters before the lone lefty (Mallex Smith). Not to worry though, RHBs have still generated a .346 xwOBA with a 36 Hard% (36.8 GB%) against Moore since last season. As was the case last night, the Rays don't offer a lot of firepower against LHP, but do offer value with only Carlos Gomez (79 wRC+, .159 ISO vs LHP since 2017) and Smith above $3K on either site tonight. Daniel Robertson (103 wRC+, .184 ISO) out of the leadoff spot and C.J. Cron (119 wRC+, .276 ISO) batting cleanup are high value plays on either site.

The Tampa Bay Rays do not list a lineup that screams daily fantasy goodness, yet are still implied for 4.55 runs (third highest on tonight's board). The reason for this is that Martin Perez can get daily fantasy players excited. Consider that he's missed four bats in two starts and has not generated a single swing and miss within the strike zone. RHBs have a .372 xwOBA since last season with an xwOBA 11 points higher. This should play well even in a negative run scoring environment in Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, we can't find a single RHB in the Tampa Bay lineup (of which there are eight) with a wRC+ above 87 over the last week (10 PA min.) with Carlos Gomez (41.2 Hard%) the only one above a 25% hard hit rate. Similarly, cleanup hitter C.J. Cron (106 wRC+, .255 ISO, 41.2 Hard%, 50 FB%) is the only one above a 95 wRC+ or .170 ISO vs LHP since last season (30 PA min.). Perhaps more importantly though, not a single bat costs more than $3.7K on DraftKings or even $3K on FanDuel. Adeiny Hechavarria (88 wRC+, .168 ISO) might not be the worst SS punt play in the second hole at a very cheap cost (minimum on FD). In fact, the Tampa Bay lineup has four batters at the minimum price tag on FanDuel and only three above $3K on DraftKings. A reasonable approach might be to fill out lineups optimally and then come back to the Rays for spots in need of some salary savings.

Jake Faria has been terrible through two starts (5.2 IP – 9 ER – 8 BB – 2 K), but has faced a difficult Boston lineup in both those starts. Although it's hard to have confidence in anyone after that line, you’d expect things to improve and the Phillies have a 27.6 K% against RHP. He costs less than $6K now on either site and could be one of quite a few lottery type arms to take a shot with on DraftKings if paying up for Cole. A 3.2 SwStr% right now is horrifying, but there's been no significant velocity loss and he generated swings and misses on 12% of pitches last season. Similary, Vince Velasquez is a pitcher who's results seem unpredictable from start to start and the first two this year have been no different. The difference between the two as lottery options tonight is simply cost. Velasques is significantly pricier, especially on DraftKings. One factor players may want to consider that hurts Vasquez is that the Rays have jettisoned most of their bats who struggled against high heat (Dickerson, Souza, Morrison). This could limit his upside. Carlos Santana (118 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since last year) would be a solid play tonight. While walks are not what daily fantasy players are really looking for, he has a combination of power and patience that should give him a high enough floor with a strong enough ceiling. Rhys Hoskins (170 wRC+, .329 ISO) is the obvious bat against a pitcher who has a reverse split thus far in his career (LHBs .275 wOBA, 25.6 Hard%, 50 GB% - RHBs .327 wOBA, 36.4 Hard%, 31 GB%). The Rays have a number of guys near the top of the lineup with both a wRC+ and ISO a bit above average against RHP since last season (Denard Span, Kevin Kiermaier and even Carlos Gomez).

R.A. Dickey has shown that he can still be an hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, allowing exactly four earned runs in two of his last three starts, but he always seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming rotation. This year, maintained his low strikeout rate, currently sitting at 17.3% to go along with an 8.5% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (48.5%) and limit hard contact to just 26.0% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it's difficult to imagine Dickey's 3.91 ERA continuing to improve with a 4.81 SIERA on the year. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Texas Rangers more of a stacking option in tournaments Monday night since there should be plenty of baserunners with a decent probability of home runs but difficult to predict where this production will come from. Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Gomez (119 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .360 ISO vs RHP) both have massive strikeout rates that should be mitigated by Dickey's inability to induce swings and misses, making them the clear top targets from this Rangers offense, while Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .171 ISO vs RHP), Robinson Chirinos (114 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP), Nomar Mazara (.190 ISO vs RHP), Mike Napoli (.221 ISO vs RHP), and Rougned Odor (.229 ISO vs RHP) are more than likely second tier options but are logical members to round out a Rangers stack in tournaments if deciding to deploy that strategy on Monday night's slate.

Five of 18 teams tonight have an implied run line above five runs with two (Colorado and Texas) above both above six runs. The Rangers are just a league average offense vs RHP (99 wRC+), but have the benefit of a highly positive run environment and a matchup with Anibal Sanchez. RHBs have a .385 wOBA, 37.4 Hard%, and 38 GB% against him since last season. Adrian Beltre (130 wRC+, .245 ISO), Elvis Andrus (119 wRC+, .180 ISO), Carlos Gomez (115 wRC+, .227 ISO), Mike Napoli (79 wRC+, .222 ISO), and Robinson Chirinos (104 wRC+, .308 ISO) have all shown power against RHP this year. Joey Gallo (129 wRC+, .371 ISO) should not be counted out either. LHBs have a .345 wOBA, but just a 29.3 Hard% against Sanchez since last season. The Rockies are the worst offense in the majors against RHP (78 wRC+) and Mike Foltynewicz has allowed RHBs just a .318 wOBA with a 25.7 Hard% (47.4 GB%). LHBs have a .349 wOBA, 33.5 Hard% and 31.4 GB% against him since last year. ALL the Charlie Blackmon (140 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP this year) obviously with some Gerardo Parra (110 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP this year), though the rest of the Rockies aren't mandatory plays. Carlos Gonzalez (61 wRC+, .125 ISO vs RHP this year) is toast.

Josh Reddick (443 wRC+, 60 Hard%, one HR) just meets the minimum PA requirement (10) for the week, but has returned to the Houston lineup with a fury. He gets a park downgrade tonight and has not had success against King Felix (79.2 mph aEV, 14 BBEs), but it's been hard to call him anything better than a league average pitcher in recent seasons. Jose Ramirez (307 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) looks to continue his onslaught against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .367 wOBA career). Carlos Gomez (288 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, five HRs) brings his hot act to Yankee Stadium to face a pitcher who has allowed 18 HRs over his last nine starts with no discrimination towards batter handedness. Justin Turner (287 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, three HRs) homered off a lefty last night, but has been better against RHP in his career and faces a LHP (Kyle Freeland) who has kept RHBs on the ground (63.6%) much more often than LHBs. Steve Pearce (284 wRC+, 46.7 Hard%, one HR) may be dealing with the wind blowing in from left in Kansas City, but Jakob Junis has allowed an exit velocity above 95 mph on 41.3% of his contact. Yangervis Solarte (281 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, four HRs) is facing Michael Fulmer, who has struggled in June (13 ERs in 18 IP) and may be dealing with a shoulder issue.