Clayton Kershaw Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A 12 game Friday night slate (11 on FanDuel without game two in Washington) offers us five $10K pitchers, though Clayton Kershaw is the only one of those on both sites with a $10.5K price tag across the board. While the question over the last half decade has often been more about health than Kershaw’s performance, his return from a month long stay on the IL was just mediocre against the Giants (4 IP – 2 R – 1 HR – 2 BB – 4 K – 18 BF). It’s a bit difficult to judge him on six starts this year because 20 of his 36 strikeouts cam in his first two starts, the driving force behind a 24.4 K-BB%. More optimistically, he does have a long history of producing similar numbers, so combined with an 87.3 mph EV and 5.9% Barrels/BBE, a bunch of estimators below three seems fine, though DRA is a lonely dissenter (3.31). The problems include a likely workload limitation well below 100 pitches (his high is 87 this season) and a Cleveland offense that doesn’t hit LHP well (88 wRC+, 6.8 HR/FB), but does make contact (19.3K%) against them. Early PlateIQ projections have Kershaw outside the top three arms on either site. With so many high priced pitchers tonight, check out Friday's PlateIQ Live Blog to find out which one projects best.

There’s no shortage of premium pitchers on a 14 game Friday night slate with four pitchers hitting the $10K mark on FanDuel and Yu Darvish dipping just under that on FanDuel. In addition, all four are pitching in very negative run environments, further enhancing their outlooks tonight. Still, the race for top overall arm may not be all that close tonight and that’s because Jacob deGrom has struck out 14 in back to back starts. He’s struck out 35 of the 72 batters to face him with a 23.2 SwStr%. He’s done this by throwing a fastball with a 39.1 Whiff% 68.6% of the time so far. And that’s his worst performing pitch. He has a 71.4 Z-Contact% and .221 xwOBA. While he may not be in an extremely favorable matchup from a strikeout perspective (four in the projected lineup below 20% vs RHP since 2019), he does face the Nationals without Juan Soto, which should be a large boost from a run prevention perspective.

Tyler Glasnow seems to have solved some hard contact issues by adding a slider (29.1%) to his arsenal. It doesn’t have to be good. It just has to look different. He’s struck out 36 of 90 batters (16.5 SwStr%) with seven walks (four last time out against the Yankees), one Barrel (86.3 mph EV) and no Home Runs. The Blue Jays have just an 85 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but the projected lineup averages a 21.3 K% via PlateIQ. Meanwhile, Darvish and Clayton Kershaw face each other in the premier matchup of the night. Despite key injuries early in the season, the Dodgers still have a 133 wRC+ vs RHP, though that didn’t stop Darvish from shutting them down last time out, striking out nine of 25 with just a single hit and run. His 29.8 K% and 4.5 BB% are both in line with recent seasons, while he’s generated just an 86 mph EV. Kershaw may be in the highest upside spot of the four. The Padres have just an 86 wRC+ vs LHP and while some of that has been due to Fernando Tatis Jr. missing a week, he may still be compromised with a shoulder issue. PlateIQ projects five players in the San Diego lineup with a 25 K% or higher vs LHP since 2019.

If looking strictly for value or if you just have salary to spare for the most expensive pitcher on the slate, deGrom is your man. If you’re looking at matchup upside and considering an ownership perspective, most importantly, wait until ownership projections update later this afternoon and act accordingly, but an early bet for leverage in that direction may be on Clayton Kershaw tonight.

Clayton Kershaw turned the clock back to 2017 with his highest strikeout rate (28.1%) and K-BB (24.4%) since that year, while setting a career high 53 GB%. So while his 17.4 HR/FB was the second highest mark of his career, next to last year’s 18.5 HR/FB, it was a bit less of a problem with more than half of his contact on the ground. Kershaw still allowed eight HRs and 12 Barrels (8.0% Barrels/BBE), despite an 87.8 mph EV that’s about average though. Estimators were about a run above his 2.16 ERA due to a .232 BABIP and 82.5 LOB%, but all still exceptionally below three and a half. Against the Brewers, Kershaw took a big chunk out of the narrative about him being unable to pitch in the post-season. He struck out 13 of the 27 batters he faced through eight innings of three hit shutout ball. He’s going to be facing a slightly better lineup tonight. One that certainly doesn’t have Ryon Healy batting cleanup. The Padres have a 106 wRC+ with a 23.2 K% and 16.8 HR/FB vs LHP. In Kershaw’s favor though, Globe Life Field in Texas has played like the most pitcher friendly park in this round. It’s only been a game or two, but the balls have been flying out of the other parks in afternoon game, while Barrels are dying in outfielder gloves in Texas so far. Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher at $10.3K on FanDuel because he is the best pitcher on the board.