Cole Hamels Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If you are a premium user and you aren't taking advantage of the WeatherEdge tool, you are missing out. The forecast for Tuesday night in Chicago looks to be very conducive to pitching - in 145 games in similar conditions, Wrigley has seen a drop off of -29.6% in the home run department and a -13.3% dip in total runs scored. It makes sense then that pitchers are having more success from a run prevention standpoint, setting up Cole Hamels for what should be his fourth-straight plus outing. There are still enough strikeouts in this White Sox lineup to make Hamels a worthwhile target at his current price tags. Despite some plus pitching conditions, Ivan Nova still isn't on the radar against the Cubs offense.

There are more obvious plays on the board, but Cole Hamels is an option tonight that can be had at very low ownership given the matchup and duel with Max Scherzer. Hamels has had a solid year with a 3.08 ERA / 3.79 xFIP, 15.9% K-BB, a .307 xwOBA allowed and a very good 56.5% GB rate. Hamels is posting his best xFIP, K-BB, xwOBA allowed and hard contact rate since 2015. He’ll face a Nationals team that has been ice cold over the last 10 days with just a 29th ranked .278 xwOBA. Of the projected Nationals lineup, only Anthony Rendon has an xwOBA above .315 over the past 10 days. On the season the Nats do have a solid 111 wRC+ vs. LHP, but with a 26.6% K rate. Hamels will have the benefit of a pitcher-friendly umpire in Dan Iassogna. On a slate with very few pitching options, Hamels offers a safer floor than most pitchers with some upside given the Nats’ struggling offense. He’ll be an intriguing dart throw option on tonight’s slate.

Cole Hamels has been great over his last three starts (21 IP – 3 ER – 0 BB – 19 K) against a wide range of opponents (MIA, LAA, MIL). On the season, the strikeout rate is average, but he has a 57.5 GB% and 3% walk rate that have helped him navigate a pretty frightening 91.9 mph aEV. While conditions (weather, umpire) do favor Hamels at Wrigley tonight, he faces a tough opponent in the Dodgers and Justin Turner in particular. Turner has smashed LHP for a 155 wRC+, .212 ISO and 51.3 Hard% over the last calendar year. He’s a pretty good bet to make some hard contact tonight, considering Hamels’ Statcast numbers. He also costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, a tremendous value, although that price might increase his ownership. Also interesting to note that David Freese (139 wRC+, .170 ISO), batting third, costs just $2.4K on FanDuel at the same position.

Players on tonight’s slate, especially on DraftKings where there are three fewer games and the need for two pitchers, are probably looking for reasons not to use Cole Hamels. He’s the only pitcher that even sees a $9K price tag (Carlos Carrasco is above $9K on FanDuel with the 6:30 ET start), he has an enormously favorable matchup against a terrible offense (68 wRC+, 25.9 K%) in a great park (Miami). He’s also going to be pitching in front of the most pitcher friendly umpire on the slate (Mark Ripperger). No wonder he’s expected to be the most popular pitcher on the slate, even if he’s never been the most consistent.

After a rough start in Texas, Hamels has two straight quality starts (@MIL, vs LAA), uncharacteristically having not walked a batter in either start. Despite just a 19.5 K% this season, it’s going to be hard to find a pitcher likely to match his strikeout upside in their particular matchup tonight. Perhaps Jake Odorizzi against Toronto, but there are some serious weather concerns in that game. If you’re looking for a negative, it’s in the Statcast numbers for Hamels. A 94.2 mph aEV, 55.6% 95+ mph EV and 16.7% Barrels/BBE portray plenty of hard contact, resulting in a .370 xwOBA, though 50% of that contact has been on the ground. So, can you fade him? Probably not in cash games and GPP players will want at least some exposure. It’s hard not to see him as the top overall arm on the board tonight under current circumstances and anyone nearly comparable generates significant risk.

Cole Hamels may have just shot to the top of the board tonight with the lineup the Diamondbacks have released. They're sitting just about any regular you've ever heard of. Ketel Marte (142 wRC+, .241 ISO) is really the only potent bat against LHP in this lineup. He's batting third.

Wednesday night is a slate with some pitching value far beyond the most expensive arms. Robbie Erlin (20.5 K%, 3.46 SIERA, .306 xwOBA) is your potential DK punt play in an SP2 spot against the Giants (76 wRC+ on the road, 80 wRC+ vs LHP) for near the minimum. Tyler Anderson has a 23.3 K%, 3.70 SIERA and .319 xwOBA over the last month with a massive park bump for just $6.4K on FanDuel. What's the problem? He has to face the Dodgers (144 wRC+ last seven days) and has an actual 7.71 ERA for some reason over the last 30 days. Chris Archer (24.6 K%, 3.82 SIERA) is inconsistent, but gets to race the Royals (81 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs RHP) at a reasonable price (< $8K) in Pittsburgh. Dallas Keuchel does not miss bats, but gets lots of weak ground balls (53.9 GB%), pitches in a great park and has failed to complete six innings just four times since May. The Mariners will not help his strikeout rate any though (20.3% vs LHP). Luis Severino is less than $10K in a tough matchup (Red Sox 114 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP) in tough park, but there may be some value there if you believe in regression. He has a 31.3 K% and 2.66 SIERA over the last month. Then of course, there's the incredibly unpredictable Cole Hamels, Robbie Ray matchup in Arizona. Hamels has begun to falter over his last two starts with two HRs allowed last time out and five walks the time before. Ray has the highest strikeout rate on the board (30.9%), but also tops the board with a 40.2% 95+ mph EV and a 12.8% walk rate. Hamels could pitch a complete game and Ray strike out ten, but it's a pretty massive range of potential outcomes with these two.

Cole Hamels has allowed two ERs (three runs total) in four starts for the Cubs. He's struck out nine twice (Pirates, Nationals), but a total of five in his other two starts (Pirates, Royals). One never can tell what he's going to do game to game, but he has walked just six without allowing a HR and even Wrigley has to be better than Texas. RHBs do have a .330 wOBA against him this season and that's not all Texas either as their xwOBA against him is actually 20 points higher. Hamels is a viable pitching candidate on a four game slate, but may end up oversold. There are some flaws here. His 88.5 mph aEV is second highest on the board, his strikeout rate is only 23% and he's the most expensive pitcher on the board by a wide margin on either site. Since Hamels can occasionally blow up with the best of them, there is some merit in considering at least Eugenio Suarez (180 wRC+, .295 ISO) vs LHP last calendar year) and perhaps Jose Peraza (107 wRC+, .125 ISO) and Phillip Ervin (156 wRC+, .216 ISO) as well. Hamels is also a top stolen base target as noted by our Stolen Base Threat Ratings (premium subscription required).