David Price Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Charlie Morton and David Price are quality pitchers. They are both in the top five in strikeout rate on the board (Morton 31%, Price 28%) and also SIERA (3.51, 3.77), xwOBA (.264, .285) and aEV (86.6 mph, 87 mph) with Morton having a lead in each category, along with a 50.6 GB% and 29.4 Z-O-Swing%, but facing the more difficult offense (Red Sox 115 wRC+ & 11.1 K-BB% vs RHP, board high 153 wRC+ last seven days, Rays 94 wRC+ & 26.5 K% vs LHP). If this game were in Tampa, we might be settling in for a pitching duel, but it’s not. Kevin’s forecast specifically states “warm, humid, winds blowing out towards the monstah at 10 mph”, as if Fenway wasn’t enough of a danger to navigate already.

Boston bats rosterable under these conditions despite batters from either side of the plate owning a wOBA and xwOBA below .300 against Morton over the last calendar year. Sportsbooks tend to agree, gracing the Red Sox with an implied run line slightly above five. They’re not as optimistic about Tampa Bay at 4.39, as Price also has an xwOBA against batters from either side within three points of .290 over the same span. Travis D’arnaud (135 wRC+, .314 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has been the most potent Tampa Bay bat among those projected tonight. Mookie Betts (149 wRC+, .235 ISO), Rafael Devers (153 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (151 wRC+, .250 ISO) have been the most potent bats against RHP. Even under such conditions, it might be reasonable to expect daily fantasy players having a hesitancy to attacking Morton and Price here (premium players have access to Projected Ownership rates), therefore offering a potentially contrarian opportunity with bats in this game.

Friday’s slate offers quite a few high quality pitchers in strong spots, but does anybody realize how strong of a season David Price is having? He combines a 21.5 K-BB% with a 3.16 ERA that’s about half run below his non-FIP estimators due to a 9.9 HR/FB and the fact that six of his 37 runs allowed have been unearned. However, he’s allowed just 6.8% Barrels/BBE and owns a .283 xwOBA that’s right in line with his actual mark (.284). His 13.2 Hard-Soft% is behind just Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman tonight, among pitchers with more than three starts. He can even call a move to Camden tonight a park upgrade, while facing an offense with an 84 wRC+, 19.7 K-BB% and 10.3 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year. The Orioles also have just a 59 wRC+ since the break. With five pitchers above $10K tonight, Price offers a quality alternative in a strong spot for $9.5K or less on either site.

David Price struck out 10 Rays last time out and is just one of three pitchers above a 26% strikeout rate on this board (29.4%) and his 80.2 Z-Contact% is best on the board. He’s done this while managing contact well as well (86.9 mph aEV, 11.2 Hard-Soft%). Price also compares favorably with Jacob deGrom and Matt Boyd in terms of xwOBA. His .277 mark is two points off deGrom’s lead tonight with Boyd one behind. While his estimators are a bit behind his 2.70 ERA due to an 80.8 LOB%, not a single one of them even reaches 3.50. Price is having a very strong season and while normally, Fenway might be a detractor, he may actually be in a pretty strong spot tonight. Temperatures in the 50s make for good pitching weather and while the Rangers hit the ball hard (split high 29.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP), they don’t hit it all that often (26.9 K%, 87 wRC+ vs LHP). Price costs less than $10K tonight and is either only the fourth or fifth most expensive pitcher on either site.

With lots of high totals on the early slate, the Rays implied 4.18 total is actually the 5th lowest on the slate. Though they are facing a very good pitcher in David Price, the Rays move from pitcher-friendly Tropicana to a much more hitter-friendly Fenway Park, where the wind is blowing out at 15 MPH today. The Rays have the 5th best xwOBA over the last 10 days at .350 and have some good bats vs. LHP at the top of their order. Tommy Pham (.438 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Avisail Garcia (.358), Daniel Robertson (.353), Yandy Diaz (.323) are all solid options and can be had at reasonable prices, especially on Fanduel. Mike Zunino is batting 5th and has a whopping .680 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Tommy Pham has also been hot with a .465 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Daniel Robertson stands out as the best value, batting 3rd and costing just $2.3k on Fanduel.

Players should strongly consider paying up for their pitching tonight as the mid and lower tier options do not provide much. Only Vince Velasquez (26.1%) is above a 25% strikeout rate (more than two starts) and he's at Coors. David Price (24.5 K%, 3.80 SIERA, .325 xwOBA) is facing the Orioles (77 wRC+ vs LHP) in a game that's destined to be postponed. Jesse James might be the interesting exception. He has struck out 24 of the 64 batters he's faced and had a 35.2 K% in 92.2 AAA innings. He is up to $8.1K on DraftKings in Toronto (104 wRC+ vs RHP, but with a now depleted lineup). He costs $1.6K less on FanDuel.

David Price has been great. He’s gone at least six innings with two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts since the break and has a 22.9 K-BB% over that span. He's even held RHBs to a .288 wOBA this season. However, the xwOBA is a bit higher (.336) with just a 39.1 GB%, while he's struggled against the Yankees as he traditionally has. The caveat being that his best start has come against them since the break (6 IP - 2 ER - 3 BB - 5 K). This is a dangerous, almost entirely right-handed lineup though. Andrew McCutchen (125 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP this year), Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (178 wRC+, .331 ISO) would all still seem to have some value here should ownership projections suggest they'll be lightly owned in this spot.