Drew Smyly Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

As opposed to previous days this week, paying up for pitching seems nearly mandatory tonight, but GPP players may want to differ and some may also be in the market for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings. Covering the first part (FD) first, three sub-$8K pitchers appear as top four point per dollar projected values by PlateIQ tonight with very little separation between them. All of Josiah Gray’s rookie season problems have followed him into 2022. With five home runs over his last two starts, he’s up to a 16.3 HR/FB with only eight of his 15 barrels (15.3%) leaving the yard, while he’s still carrying a double digit walk rate (11.5%). Even with the 24.8 K%, a 4.26 SIERA is his only estimator below a 4.34 ERA. The positive here is a substantial park upgrade, but the Marlins have a 128 wRC+ at home and 117 wRC+ (21.3 K%) vs RHP. Gray is purely a high risk upside play only available on FanDuel.

Jordan Hicks has worked his way up to 77 pitches in his fifth start, although he’s carrying just an 8.0 K-BB% since being inserted into the rotation. The 58.7 GB% is still the biggest value to his team. For some unknown reason, DRA loves him (3.35), but he doesn’t have another estimator below four. The Mets have a 117 wRC+ and 18.7 K% vs RHP. Hicks is cheap and in a great park, but weather may be more hitter friendly than it’s been so far this season tonight.

The Cubs have Drew Smyly throwing cutters and sinkers for more than half of his offerings this year and now he’s a ground ball pitcher (52%). If you’re discouraged at the potential cost being a 16.7 K%, an 11.3 SwStr% strongly suggests that won’t be the case for long. He’s also generated just an 84.3 mph EV and 4.8 BB%. While all estimators are above his 3.64 ERA, only his FIP is above four (15.6 HR/FB), but a rise in his strikeout rate could drop them into the lower threes. Have the Cubs created a new pitcher? Smyly currently projects for the most value of any confirmed sub-$8K pitcher on DraftKings, hosting the Pirates (82 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs LHP). Conditions at Wrigley also appear to be pitcher friendly tonight. Smyly could be very interesting in your SP2 spot.

The middle of the board may not offer a ton of upside tonight, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some interesting pitchers. One of the more interesting pitchers on the board might be Drew Smyly tonight. Despite all the issues in the White Sox lineup, they have still smashed LHP (139 wRC+) this year. That said, the wind is blowing in from left at Wrigley and Smyly has made some changes. He’s cut down his four seam usage to one-quarter of his offerings, while increasing his cutter to the same frequency. The result has been fewer strikeouts (16.7%), but with a 13.4 SwStr% that strongly suggests that won’t remain the case. More surprisingly, he seems to becoming a ground ball pitcher (54.8%), which he may have to be at Wrigley. It is a bit mind-boggling that he’s induced four infield flies, while six of his remaining 24 non-ground balls have been barrels, yet he has just an 81.5 mph EV. Either way, he’s currently projected as the second best point per dollar value (PlateIQ) on FanDuel tonight.

Aside from Brandon Woodruff, there really are no mid-range pitchers who project that well on DraftKings between $6K and $9K. Something you might have to stare at for a minute or two before it sinks in is that Brad Keller has the best DRA in the majors at 2.80. He costs just $7.5K on DraftKings in a decent home matchup with the Cardinals (89 wRC+, but just a 19 K% vs RHP), at least in terms of run prevention. We could say the same of Dakota Hudson (Royals 79 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP), but who wants to pay more than $8K for his 6.5 K-BB% and 90 mph EV?

German Marquez projects as a top five value on FD ($6.1K), but since opening the season with a gem against the Dodgers, at Coors no less, he has allowed 15 runs (12 earned) over just 14 innings. He struck out just a single Phillie last time out, in his first road start. He’s walked only four (4.2%) with 51.9% of his contact on the ground, but a 91.2 mph EV has still resulted in 9.1% Barrels/BBE with just a 14.7 K% (7.7 SwStr%). Velocity and spin rates are in line with last year, but the Whiff rate on basically every one of his pitches is down for some reason. A 94.5 Z-Contact% is more than an eight point jump from last season. He’s home against the Nats (113 wRC+, 17.2 K% last seven days).

Julio Urias projects fairly well on DraftKings, but his velocity remains down 1.8 mph from last year, according to Statcast. However, the fastball is getting better results (.331 xwOBA last season compared to .267 this year) and since failing to strike out a single batter in his first start, he’s struck out 15 of 57 since. He retains a double digit walk rate and single digit SwStr% though. In addition, while an 87.9 mph EV would be a perfectly respectable mark, it’s nearly a full mile per hour above his career high (87.1 mph in 2020). He’s still managing contact well enough that a 2.59 xERA is very much in line with his 2.50 ERA, but all other estimators are nearly two runs higher (.170 BABIP). The Giants have just an 88 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs LHP though.

It’s obviously a small sample, but Drew Smyly has suddenly been an effective pitcher with the Phillies over 13 innings after being absolutely terrible for the majority of the year. Smyly’s posted a 0.69 ERA and 21.7% K-BB over his 13 innings with his new team; he also has just a .246 xwOBA and 85.2 MPH aEV in those 2 starts. Looking at Smyly’s profile, he’s thrown his four-seamer much less (50% -> 37%), slightly increased his curveball usage (28% -> 33%), and more than doubled his cutter usage (14% -> 30%) while completely scrapping his changeup in his 13 innings since joining the Phillies. Smyly gets a matchup this afternoon with the White Sox, who have been abysmal of late with a 60 wRC+ and 28% K rate over the past 30 days. The White Sox have just two batters in their lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .280 over the past 30 days. Smyly’s price is a bargain across the industry; he’ll cost just $6600 on Draftkings and $7300 on Fanduel. The White Sox have just a 4.19 implied line vs. Smyly and the Phillies.