Jose Quintana Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Quintana has had quite the up and down season in 2019. He started off well with a 3.24 xFIP and 20.9% K-BB through April, then posted a combined 4.97 xFIP and 9.7% K-BB from May through July. Since August 1st Quintana has pitched well again, posting a 3.30 ERA / 3.55 xFIP with a 20% K-BB and 1.15 WHIP. Quintana gets a matchup this afternoon vs. the Pirates, who have been slightly below average with a 95 wRC+ and just a 17.7% K rate over the past 30 days. They have posted a league-worst 75 wRC+ with a 22% K rate vs. LHP in 2019 though, and without Josh Bell and Starling Marte in their lineup today they will have just 3 batters who have an xwOBA greater than .290 vs. LHP on the year. Quintana is not the most ideal option given the inconsistency, but he does have a nice matchup today and there isn’t much else to choose from on this slate. Quintana will likely see decently high ownership across all contests. One thing to note here is that there are pretty strong winds blowing straight out in Wrigley and WeatherEdge projects a very large bump in offense this afternoon. The Pirates are really lacking pop without Bell and Marte in the lineup so it’s possible they are unable to take advantage. They currently have a 4.49 implied total vs. Quintana and the Cubs.

Jose Quintana is enjoying a bit of a rebound in 2019 after posting back to back 4+ ERA seasons in 2017 and 2018. So far this year, Quintana has a 3.30 ERA / 3.69 xFIP / 4.05 SIERA with a solid 15.1% K-BB, a much improved 50.6% GB rate and a career high 10% SwStr. Statcast data shows he is using his sinker much more and has also increased his changeup usage, which so far has yielded better results. Statcast has him at a decent .310 xwOBA allowed with a very solid 5.4% barrel rate. Quintana will be taking on the Reds, who have just a 82 wRC+ vs. LHP this year with a 22.2% K rate. The Reds will have just 3 batters in their lineup with an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .310 on the year. Quintana will also have the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Doug Eddings. The Reds have just a 3.34 implied line vs. Quintana, who has a good shot of getting a ‘W’ as a -160 favorite this afternoon.

Jose Quintana has seen his strikeout rate explode, but Statcast suggests he’s getting double the whiffs on a sinker he’s throwing the same speed, with the same spin, in the same location. Perhaps the increase in sinkers is what has caused his ground ball rate to 51.9%, but this is a tough situation to figure out. To make matters more confusing, his Z-Contact (80.5%) and Z-O-Swing (28.7%) are both elite as well. The results are fantastic even if we can’t figure out how he’s getting them. Perhaps a pass is in order here against a tough Dodger lineup (116 wRC+, 14 BB%, 20.8 HR/FB vs LHP), but they also have a 25.3 K% vs LHP so far and there are a few more marks in his favor, including a pitcher friendly umpire, slightly favorable weather conditions (Weather Edge requires a Premium subscription). Projected for just single digit ownership, perhaps Quintana is worth a flyer in GPPs tonight.

Monday afternoon's two game MLB slate offers some interesting choices. The early game features two pitchers with some large platoon splits (LHBs have a .341 wOBA vs Jhoulys Chacin, while RHBs have a .326 wOBA vs Carlos Quintana). Both offenses have the personnel to do some damage to either pitcher. The late game features two pitchers who have had major breakouts in the second half of 2018. Walker Buehler had a 2.21 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 24 K-BB% and .235 wOBA in the second half. German Marquez had a 2.55 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 28.2 K-BB% and 2.54 wOBA in the second half. That last number is incredibly impressive considering he pitches a lot of his games at Coors. The difference here is that German will be facing an offense with a 110 wRC+ at home and 116 wRC+ vs RHP, while Beuhler will be facing one with a 78 wRC+ on the road and 82 wRC+ vs RHP. Theoretically, it is possible to fit both players in your DraftKings lineup at a combined cost of $19.6K with some room left over to take advantage of key bats at Wrigley. A Buehler/Chacin combination would cost $15.5K. On FanDuel, it's probably preferable to side with on of the pitchers in LA, who are separated by just $200.

Players paying up for pitcher may want to take a look at the Pirates' lineup tonight. Just third from the bottom at 3.48 implied runs at Wrigley, they are facing Jose Quintana, who has allowed RHBs a .326 wOBA this season. This mark is a bit worse than average, as is his .344 xwOBA, but what Pittsburgh offers is cheap RHBs in the middle of the order. Elias DIaz (154 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP this season) bats cleanup for $3.8K on DK ($2.5K on FD) with Jose Osuna (103 wRC+, .245 ISO). Sample sizes are small, but there's enough there to suggest they exceed such a low price tag and help players save salary tonight.