Julio Teheran Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Julio Teheran looks like one of the best PTS/$ plays across the industry tonight in a great matchup with a few different factors working in his favor. Teheran has a been a bit lucky on the year (his estimators are almost 2 full runs above his 3.46 ERA) though he does have a wide gap between his career ERA (3.63) and his career xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.25). Teheran faces a Marlins team tonight that has a league-worst 75 wRC+ and 25.1% K rate vs. RHP this year and an 80 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Teheran has a very wide platoon split; since 2017 he has a 4.19 xFIP, 16.8% K-BB and a .300 xwOBA vs. RHB compared to a 5.77 xFIP, 3.9% K-BB and .348 xwOBA vs. LHB. Fortunately for Teheran, the Marlins’ lineup will have just 2 left-handed batters (Isan Diaz and Curtis Granderson). Also working in Teheran’s favor tonight is an extremely pitcher friendly environment in Marlins Park, as well as projected catcher Tyler Flowers being one of the best pitch framers in the game. Teheran is plenty affordable as he’s $9k or less on both major sites tonight and will likely be highly owned across all contests. The Marlins have just a 3.73 implied total vs. Teheran and the Braves tonight.

While Fenway is the most positive run environment on the board tonight with no consideration of outside factors, Wrigley may be playing the part of Coors tonight with winds blowing out to RF at around 15 mph. The bump given to power and overall run scoring by Weather Edge (premium tool) is pretty tremendous tonight.

Julio Teheran is down to a 14.7 K% over the last month, though he’s allowed just one HR over his last nine starts. While Teheran has seemingly solved his issue with LHBs over the last calendar year (.297 wOBA) that may be an illusion as xwOBA credits them with a 43 point bump over that period, which makes sense with a 38.8 Hard% and 34.8 GB%. Teheran’s 11.5 BB% does not inspire confidence either. The obvious plays here are Kyle Schwarber (106 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Anthony Rizzo (158 wRC+, .255 ISO) with Jason Heyward (100 wRC+, .148 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (92 wRC+, .167 ISO) showing league average tendencies that will receive a weather boost tonight. The latter duo each cost $2.5K or less on FanDuel.

For the home team, Jon Lester doesn’t issue free passes (5.5%) and still strikes out batters at a league average rate (22.7%), but that may be an illusion (8.3 SwSt%). His 4.13 ERA has nearly caught up with estimators, none of which are lower, due to a 6.44 ERA and 6.03 FIP over the last month. An 88.9 mph aEV and 10.3% Barrels/BBE make matters even worse. His .349 xwOBA is fourth worst on the board tonight and he’ll have to contend with an Atlanta offense with a 108 wRC+, 20.8 K% and 17 HR/FB vs LHP this year. The good news is that the wind is blowing out to right field instead of left. The bad is that LHBs (.406 wOBA, .381 xwOBA) have hit him even harder than RHBs (.331 wOBA, .334 xwOBA) over the last 12 months. Freddie Freeman (119 wRC+, .206 ISO) has hit same-handed pitching well over that span and tops the team with a 61.1 Hard% over the last week (10 PA min.). A lineup that leans predominantly right-handed here is certainly useful too with both offense implied for well over five runs tonight.

Teheran has not been as good this year as his 3.28 ERA suggests, as his 4.89 xFIP, 4.91 SIERA and 10.9% K-BB point towards some regression. However, SP is thin on this afternoon slate and Teheran has a great matchup with the Marlins in hitter-friendly Marlins Park Saturday afternoon. Teheran will also benefit from a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Ryan Blakney. The Marlins have an ugly 78 wRC+ and 25% K rate vs. RHP on the year, and wil have just two batters in their projected lineup (Brian Anderson, Garrett Cooper) who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .315 on the year. Since 2018, Teheran has just a .299 xwOBA with a 26.2% K rate vs. RHB compared to a .343 xwOBA and 18.8% K rate vs LHB. Fortunately, he projects to face just two left-handed bats in the Marlins order, both have an xwOBA below .300 vs. RHP on the year. The Marlins currently have a 3.39 implied line vs. Teheran and the Braves Saturday afternoon.

Julio Teheran has four quality starts out of six and at least six strikeouts five times this year. His 25.4 K% is the highest of his career and backed by his 12.2 SwStr% (also a career high) with batters making contact at only a 75.2% rate in the strike zone. This would certainly qualify as a resurgence if not for his 5.40 ERA and 4.57 SIERA. The problem is a 90.6 mph aEV and 12% walk rate. When you think about his issues though, they’re mostly against LHBs (.320 wOBA, .341 xwOBA last calendar year - RHBs .266 wOBA). Looking at the projected San Diego lineup, it only includes two of them. One is Greg Garcia (79 wRC+ vs RHP last calendar year) and the other is Eric Hosmer (117 wRC+). The weather is not likely pitcher friendly in Atlanta tonight (temps in 80s), but this is a predominantly right-handed Padres’ lineup with a 76 wRC+ and enormous 20.4 K-BB% vs RHP. Daily fantasy players probably shouldn’t play the Teheran card often, but this may be a rare spot where it fits.

Thursday night's six game slate features just a single pitcher above a $10K price point and while Gerrit Cole (35.1 K%, 2.88 SIERA, .284 xwOBA) has a great matchup in Baltimore (90 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP), it's a significant park downgrade with some potential weather issues in a game where the Astros have absolutely no reason to extend him. Where might players look for their daily fantasy pitching needs tonight? The most obvious candidate is in Seattle, where Marco Gonzales (20.8 K%, 3.83 SIERA, .324 xwOBA) takes the mound against the Rangers (83 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs LHP) for just $6.3K on FanDuel. He's probably viable as well on DraftKings even at a cost $2.5K higher, where players need two pitchers. The other interesting spot to look for pitching is in New York, where Julio Teheran (22.4 K%, 4.67 SIERA, .337 xwOBA) and Jason Vargas (20.5 K%, 4.40 SIERA, .342 xwOBA) face off. Both have their flaws, but Teheran has at least five strikeouts in nine straight games and has allowed more than two runs just twice over that span. Vargas is facing an Atlanta offense with a 110 wRC+ and 19.9 K% vs LHP, but costs just $5.6K on DK and has a 26.4 K% over the last month with an ERA and estimators below four over that span.

Julio Teheran has been pitching well lately and has much less pressure on him than the Phillies with his team way ahead in the standings, but there's always room to roster quality LHBs (.325 wOBA, .366 xwOBA) against him. With complete disregard towards defense once again, the Phillies will line up six from that side of the plate. Every single batter in the lineup has at least a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season with leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (100 wRC+, .122 ISO) the low man by both that mark and ISO. Asdrubal Cabrera (125 wRC+, .233 ISO), Carlos Santana (107 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Justin Bour (127 wRC+, .228 ISO) may provide some firepower from the left side of the plate, while Rhys Hoskins (141 wRC+, .288 ISO) does have three doubles in 13 career PAs against Teheran.