Kyle Seager Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Pitching is expensive tonight, at least most of the usable arms, so players are going to want to scatter some cheaper batters into their lineups tonight and one of the places they should be able to do that is in Cleveland. The home team has one of the higher implied run lines on the slate with the visiting team more in the middle of the board at 3.89, but the majority of this lineup is very cheap and includes five batters above a 115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020 and four batters above a .200 ISO. Meanwhile, LHBs have a solid, if not overwhelming .314 wOBA and .341 xwOBA against Aaron Civale since last year, while RHBs aren’t any worse (.331 wOBA, .317 ISO). Mitch Haniger (129 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2020) is the expensive bat in the lineup with Kyle Seager (118 wRC+, .218 ISO) much more moderately priced. Taylor Trammell (128 wRC+, .267 ISO) and Jake Fraley (156 wRC+, ,217 ISO) cost less than $3K on either site.

There are just two bullpens that have both an ERA and FIP above five over the last 30 days. One obvious spot is in Colorado, but you’re probably already locked in on Oakland bats, even though Jon Gray has a 51.3 GB% and has allowed just five Barrels (2.8%) with a 3.55 xERA and 3.71 ERA. The A’s have the highest implied run line on the board (5.84) by more than half a run with only one other offense reaching five. The Mariners are more interesting, facing Shohei Ohtani and the Angels’ bullpen (5.27 ERA, 5.39 FIP last 30 days). Of the 154 batters to face Ohtani, 50 have struck out and 36 have put it on the ground. However, he generally runs his pitch count up fairly quickly with a 16.9 BB%, pitching beyond the fifth inning just twice and has a 4.35 SIERA. LHBs have a .347 xwOBA (.309 actual wOBA) against him since last year. This is not a terrible spot for LH Mariners, despite the 3.55 implied run line and several of them cost not much more than the minimum on either site, including Taylor Trammell (121 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Jake Fraley (146 wRC+, .219 ISO). Kyle Seager (123 wRC+, .218 ISO) is also fairly cheap.

One other spot to examine is in St Louis. Weather Edge is currently giving the park a sizeable boost in a sample of more than 100 games with similar conditions and the St Louis bullpen exceeds both a five ERA and xFIP over the last month. Their issue is in a 15.4 BB%, so this only works if we can stack against the starting pitcher. Kwang-hyun Kim’s 3.65 ERA this year is pretty close to his xERA and FIP from last year, but his velocity has been dropping, as he’s had just a 5.7 K-BB% in five May starts and only three of his 11 Barrels (9.2%) have left the yard this year. All non-FIP estimators exceed four. This looks like a spot to take advantage of regardless of bullpen struggles. There is a 44 point difference between Kim’s actual wOBA against RHBs (.281) and xwOBA (.325) since last season. The Cincinnati lineup is somewhat depleted at the moment, but that also means that you can get Nick Castellanos (140 wRC+, .291 ISO) and friends quite cheaply tonight.

If you filter BaseballSavant’s Daily Matchups page for 15 or more PAs against opposing pitcher and sort by xwOBA, you may find some potentially useful BvP data based on exit velocity and launch angle over a growing sample, completely disregarding things like batting average. This information could key us in on an offense with a marginal implied run line at around four and a half tonight. The Mariners strike out a ton and usually give us many reasons to roster opposing pitchers, but Martin Perez strikes out so few that it’s hardly worth chasing the Ks tonight. Instead, why not focus on an offense that’s not that bad overall (six of nine batters in the projected lineup above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and gets a massive park upgrade tonight at Fenway. Mitch Haniger is the spot where most daily fantasy players are likely to land tonight. He has a 148 wRC+ and .293 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and homered last night. Meanwhile, RHBs have a .346 wOBA against Perez since 2019, while he’s essentially smothered LHBs (.278 wOBA). One LHB he hasn’t smothered, who generally hits most LHP well too, is Kyle Seager (123 wRC+, .240 ISO). In 59 head to head matchups, Seager has homered off Perez four times and holds a .371 xwOBA. While we might count the previous park in Texas as responsible for some of that damage, while Perez was with the Rangers, the wind is blowing out fairly strongly to RF at Fenway tonight. Seager should not draw much ownership tonight. Haniger, however, is $500 less on DraftKings, but also adds some strong historical numbers against Perez. In 24 PAs, he doesn’t have a HR, but two doubles with a .402 xwOBA. Stacking these two with the returning Kyle Lewis (105 wRC+, .203 ISO) costs players just $8.8K on FanDuel and just under $12K on DraftKings.

It’s not as easy as usual finding pitchers to stack against on the night slate, as there are a number of good pitchers throwing tonight and not a ton of matchups that stand out. One lineup to consider stacking is the Mariners, who have still managed to swing the bat decently well (106 wRC+ over last 30 days) despite trading a few of their best bats. Though Chris Bassitt has a 3.80 ERA, his estimators indicate regression as he owns a 4.81 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA. Bassitt has also really struggled of late; he’s posted a 4.50 ERA, 5.24 xFIP and 5.29 SIERA with an 8.6% K-BB over the past 30 days. Daniel Vogelbach (.407 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Domingo Santana (.367), JP Crawford (.343), Mac Williamson (.331), Kyle Seager (.320), Omar Narvaez (.307) and Mallex Smith (.280) are all options tonight vs. Bassitt. Smith started the year a bit slow but has slightly improved with a .303 xwOBA over the past month; he projects to leadoff tonight. All Mariners bats are available at an affordable $4.4k or less on Draftkings tonight, on Fanduel they will be priced $3.7k and lower. The Mariners have a 4.41 implied total for this matchup.