Robinson Cano Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Mets offense did their job against the Nationals last night against a veteran pitcher and the Washington bullpen, but tonight they face a more volatile arm in Josiah Gray. The key piece in the trade for the guy the Nationals are facing last night, Gray exhibited swing and miss stuff beyond his 24.8 K% over 70.2 IP last year (14.3 SwStr%). However, everything else was a problem. He walked 10.7% of the batters he faced and when batters made contact, it was only on the ground 30.8% of the time and left the park 18.6% of the time when in the air. He was barreled up on 12.2% of the contact he allowed. Batters from either side of the plate hammered Gray for a wOBA above .330, Statcast suggests a wider spilt (RHBs .290 xwOBA, LHBs .361). An interesting case can be made for some exposure to Gray, but also playing a few lineups against him. The Mets are one of the five teams currently bunched on the top half of the board between 4.75 and 5.25 implied runs tonight, while the projected lineup supplies both strong overall bats and some of the potentially better values tonight. Most obviously, Robinson Cano costs less than $2.5K on either side. Plate IQ projections have him as a top five point per dollar play on FanDuel and the top value play on DraftKings. Brandon Nimmo (136 wRC+ vs RHP last year) has been dealing with a neck issue, but should he be atop the Mets lineup, he costs just $2.6K on FanDuel where projections peg him as a top three value. Jeff McNeil (94 wRC+) is looking to bounce back tonight, but is fairly cheap on both sites, while Francisco Lindor (106 wRC+, .190 ISO) is coming off a red hot spring.

Humberto Mejia threw 2.1 innings 10 days ago, striking out six of 11 Mets in his first action above A ball. He generated a 13.4 SwStr%, walked two and allowed a HR. None of his three batted balls were on the ground. A well-balanced Mets lineup will face a crumbling pen (6.18 FIP, 7.3 K-BB%), which they punished last night. Robinson Cano has been on fire and hitting everything hard, leading the team with a 92.1 mph average exit velocity this year (211 wRC+). He costs just $2.9K on FanDuel and has a .341 wOBA with a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. J.D. Davis (.373 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is $100 cheaper. Make sure to include both in your Mets stacks tonight.

Some of Robert Dugger’s flaws have been masked by the park in Miami, as he’s allowed just a 12.5 HR/FB rate despite a 38.4 GB% and 40% 95+ mph EV. He’s struck out just eight of the 79 batters he’s faced on the road and was blasted at Citi Field for two HRs and four walks in his major league debut. It’s true this is also a severely negative run environment, but winds are expected to be blowing out to left in a park where the Mets still have a 108 wRC+ and 16.9 HR/FB in. Dugger has a massive platoon split through six starts with LHBs over 100 points higher by wOBA (.374) and xwOBA (.402). Brandon Nimmo may have just an 84 wRC+ and .147 ISO vs RHP this year, but has an OPS above 1.000 since returning from a neck injury. Michael Conforto (141 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP) homered twice last night and is suddenly swinging the hottest bat in the lineup with a 234 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Jeff McNeil (150 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Robinson Cano (112 wRC+, .213 ISO) are both projected in the top half of the order for an offense above five implied runs tonight (5.43).

Antonio Senzatela snapped a seven start streak of allowing at least five earned runs in every start, when he shut down the Cardinals (1 R – 5 Ks) over six innings at Coors last time out. He actually has the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE on the slate (5.9%) behind a 54.3 GB%. However, he also has just a 2.1 K-BB% and those are hard ground balls. His 42.5% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board and he’s one of just two pitchers on the board above a .350 xwOBA. Considering these attributes, low K-BB%, high exit velocity, lots of ground balls, Senzatela is certainly the type of you pitcher you want to stack against, rather than home run hunt. Expect a lot of traffic on the bases, while the Mets are, of course, the best projected offense on the board (7.5 implied runs) by more than a full run. The downside is that the Mets are coming off the Sunday night game in New York, though they do get a later start after flying nearly across country. Senzatela has a pretty massive platoon split too (LHBs 85 points and 54 points higher by wOBA and xwOBA), so particular attention should be paid to the LHBs of Jeff McNeil (144 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP), Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .276 ISO), Robinson Cano (117 wRC+, .220) and Brandon Nimmo (75 wRC+, .106 ISO), who finally seems healthy (171 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days). The Mets generally like to balance their lineup though, without two same-handed batters back to back.

Vince Velasquez has been held to smaller workloads, facing a total of 48 batters over three starts since being reinserted into the rotation, but working his way up to 84 pitches last time out. He should be able to work deeper into today’s game if circumstances call for it. He’s struck out 15 of those 48 batters and his 26.8 K% on the season is actually third best on the board tonight. However, his 44 Z-O-Swing% is also second worst, resulting in far too much hard contact and a 90.4 mph aEV and 12.9% Barrels/BBE that are second worst on the slate as well. Estimators are in line with his 4.73 ERA. Velasquez has been competent against RHBs over the last 12 months (.309 wOBA, .303 xwOBA), but LHBs have pounded him (.380 wOBA, .355 xwOBA). The Mets are expected to line up with three well above average LHBs against RHP, along with Robinson Cano (103 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who may finally be breaking out of his season long funk with a 157 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last seven days. Jeff McNeil (145 wRC+, .160 ISO, .348 xwOBA), Michael Conforto (137 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Dominic Smith (137 wRC+, .250 ISO) are all quality bats in this projected lineup for a team implied for 4.5 runs tonight. Pete Alonso (145 wRC+, .299 ISO) is certainly stack worthy with the above batters as well.

According to a large sample of previous games, WeatherEdge (available to premium subscribers) likes offense to be up across the board tonight due to atmospheric conditions in Citi Field as the Phillies take on the Mets. Jacob Degrom is taking the hill for the Mets and while it’s not advisable to stack against him, the opposite is true for Vince Velasquez, who gets the start for the Phillies tonight after splitting time between the pen and rotation this year. Since 2018, Velasquez has a 4.60 ERA / 4.50 xFIP as a starter on the road with a 13.4% K-BB. In that split, Velasquez has been more vulnerable to lefties as he has a .330 xwOBA allowed to LHB compared to a .290 xwOBA vs. RHB. Michael Conforto (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dominic Smith (.373), Jeff McNeil (.373) and Robinson Cano (.346) are all great left-handed options tonight. Pete Alonso (.372) and JD Davis (.364) are also in play despite not having the platoon advantage. Besides Cano who is just $3.1k on Draftkings, Mets’ bats figure to be contrarian tonight despite a decent 4.94 implied total and they are a good way to differentiate on this slate. If you want to get super contrarian and gain leverage on the field, you could roster a few Phillies’ bats vs. Degrom as he will likely be the heaviest owned SP by a wide margin, though it is certainly not a high probability play as the Phillies currently have just 3.56 implied runs.