Stephen Strasburg Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Although each of the games tonight are double elimination, meaning any pitchers are candidates for a quick hook, Stephen Strasburg may have the longest leash of the four, simply because the Washington bullpen has been in shambles all season. Patrick Corbin should be ready for an extended outing if necessary, but if Strasburg pitches anything like he has in his previous two outings though, he may take care of the entire thing by himself. He’s struck out 14 of the 31 batters he’s faced, allowing just five hits and a single run without a walk. For the season, he’s tied for the top strikeout rate on the board (29.9%) and in sole position of the top SIERA (3.49), DRA (2.13), Z-O-Swing (25.6%), GB rate (51.1%) and xwOBA (.263). The problem, of course, is that he has the worst park neutral matchup on the board (Dodgers 115 wRC+, 21 K%, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP). The lineup is expected to feature a front five all with at least a .365 wOBA against RHP this year with only Justin Turner (.182 ISO) below a .239 ISO. Fortunately for Strasburg, this is not a neutral park. It’s a very negative run environment, but that also goes to establish how difficult the Dodger offense really is as well. Strasburg was elite against batters from either side of the plate this year (both below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA). While he and Buehler rate very closely overall tonight, Strasburg may be the better value (and perhaps the top value) at $300 less on FanDuel (exactly $10K).

Walker Buehler has the highest aEV on the board tonight (88.6 mph), but has the top FIP (3.01) and allowed the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (5.4%), while comparing very favorably with Strasburg and Flaherty in terms of strikeout rate (29.2%), SIERA (3.50), DRA (2.89) and xwOBA (.275). While he’s facing a nearly neutral offense vs RHP (100 wRC+) in a very negative run environment, the Nationals had just a 21 K% vs RHP that matches the Dodgers for the lowest mark on the board. In fact, tonight’s projected lineup features only two batters above a 20.5 K% vs RHP this year, neither in the top half of the lineup. Batters from either side of the plate were within a .260-.280 wOBA & xwOBA range against Buehler this season, making Anthony Rendon (153 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP) and Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) easily the top plays here, even if it’s incredibly obvious. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) is fairly cheap though. When including price tags, the margins favoring one pitcher over another tonight are extremely close. It’s really going to matter which way the ball bounces, though Buehler has been a bit prone to blowups, especially in the second half (four ERs or more four times in 13 starts). However, he dominated the Nationals, striking out eight of 21 batters with three walks, a hit and no runs in the first game of this series and is the most rested starter on the board.

Stephen Strasburg just finished up perhaps the best season of his career by peripherals (29.9 K%, 3.32 ERA, 2.13 DRA, .263 xwOBA), numbers that make him seem merely average on this board though. An added attraction is that he transitions to one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. A detraction is that the Dodger offense (115 wRC+, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP) resides in that environment. It’s tough to side with a RHP against this offense with a projected lineup that includes five batters (Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and Will Smith) above a .360 wOBA and .230 ISO vs RHP this year. However, it’s tough to stack up this offense against a pitcher who held batters from either side of the plate below a .280 wOBA and .150 ISO this season as well. Anything goes on a four game slate, but this may be the least attractive spot on the board today.

Clayton Kershaw showed signs of his former perennial Cy Young candidate form this year, but also struggled down the stretch, allowing 13 of his 28 HRs this season over his last seven starts. He did finish up the season with six shutout innings in San Diego and another scoreless relief inning in San Francisco, but still had a 6.00 FIP over this span and a dangerous proposition against a Washington team with a 111 wRC+ vs LHP this year without even regarding his familiar post-season narrative. While Kershaw’s post-season failures have been emphasized, he’s also had many quality playoff outings as well. However, players will still probably want to look at Anthony Rendon (.429 wOBA, .301 ISO) and Howie Kendrick (.431 wOBA, .239 ISO), who both hammered LHP this year. Considering that Kershaw had virtually no split this year (LHBs .269 wOBA, .174 ISO), Juan Soto (.355 wOBA, .195 ISO) is just a quality bat, who could be a bit under-valued here. This too is not one of the betters spots on the board for either side today.

Stephen Strasburg is second on the board with a 29.7 K%, exactly seven points above the next highest strikeout rate (Jose Berrios 22.7%) and with a walk rate 4.5 points below the only strikeout rate higher than his (Robbie Ray 30.9%). Over the last month, Strasburg has struck out 35.8% over batters with no other pitcher on the board reaching 30%. His 3.49 SIERA is best on the board by more than half a run, his 2.15 DRA is the only mark on the slate lower than four and his .261 xwOBA is the only mark below .300 tonight. It goes without saying that Strasburg is the top pitcher on the board tonight and we haven’t even mentioned the matchup yet, but not only does he get a park upgrade in St Louis, but the Cardinals have been a below average offense vs RHP this year (93 wRC+, 22.6 K%). Nobody in tonight’s lineup for St Louis is above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only two are above a .200 ISO. Despite a potentially hitter friendly umpire (Umpire Ratings are available to premium subscribers), this is a favorable spot for Strasburg, enhancing his outlook as tonight’s top pitcher. Of course, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board, more than $1K higher than any other pitcher on either site, but it’s difficult to find a pitcher you’d safely call a better value either with Strasburg so far ahead in every major category.

While the 3.50 ERA is unspectacular, Stephen Strasburg leads the board with a 2.14 ERA. Nobody else is even below three. And his .262 xwOBA is best on the board by 19 points. His 23.4 K-BB% also leads the slate. It’s not an ideal matchup in Minnesota (Twins 113 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 16.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but it’s expected to be a cooler night with wind blowing in and the Twins are still expected to be without Max Kepler tonight. Strasburg has recorded seventh inning outs in 15 of his 29 starts this year. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board, but still likely the top overall arm with other high priced pitchers like Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack and Robbie Ray containing some upside, while not coming close to Strasburg’s workload. He should be worth the pay up for those who care to make the effort to afford him tonight.

Strasburg is far and away the best projected option on the main slate and will likely be very highly owned across all contest types tonight. Posting a nearly identical season to 2018, Strasburg so far has a 3.63 ERA, 3.31 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA with a 1.08 WHIP, 28.8% K rate, 6.2% BB rate, 30% hard contact, 49.8% GB rate and a career best 13.7% SwStr. The career best SwStr can perhaps be attributed to throwing his curve more, as he has increased its usage from 20% in 2018 to 30% this year, and the pitch has a 41.3% whiff rate per Statcast. Strasburg faces the Marlins tonight, who have a a 2nd worst 76 wRC+ and a 25.2% K Rate vs. RHP on the year. They also have just a .303 xwOBA over the past 30 days. The Marlins’ projected lineup has just one batter (Neil Walker) with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .325 on the year, and also has 3 batters under .250 (Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Austin Dean). Strasburg also projects to have the platoon advantage against 7 of 9 Miami hitters. Strasburg costs $11.2k on both major sites but figures to be well worth the price tonight. The Marlins currently have just a 2.96 implied line vs. Strasburg and the Nats.

Stephen Strasburg has allowed 16 ERs over his last 17.1 IP with six HRs, seven walks and 17 strikeouts, none in terrible spots against the Reds, Mets, and Padres. That said, his 22.3 K-BB% is still second best on the board and while his estimators have risen along with his ERA over the last month, the non-FIP ones are still a run below his 5.04 ERA over that span, while he’s held his strikeout rate at 26.6%. He has the lowest xwOBA on the board tonight (.265), which is a single point off his road mark since the beginning of last season (.266), also the top split on the board. Additionally, his xwOBA remains below .300 (.292) through his struggles over the last 30 days. The Pirates are a contact prone (18.9 K%), league average offense (99 wRC+) vs RHP in a slight park upgrade for Strasburg, who is one of six pitchers above $9.5K on either site tonight. He has some competition from Shane Bieber and Clayton Kershaw as far as tonight’s top overall arm goes, but costing $1K or more less than either of those pitchers on either site may make him the top value among high priced arms tonight with a reasonable expectation of a bounce back towards his excellent season numbers.

Stephen Strasburg is probably the second best overall daily fantasy pitcher on the board behind Chris Sale tonight and one of six who is at least $9.5K on both sites tonight. Certainly consider him one of the better values on the board in a fantastic matchup at home against the Rockies (68 wRC+, 21.6 K-BB% on the road, 83 wRC+, 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP). His 29 K% is fourth best on the board, his 3.47 SIERA third, but his 2.13 DRA is first by more than half a run. Also best on the board is his 24.1 Z-O-Swing% and .259 xwOBA. His 6.0% Barrels/BBE and 51.4 GB% are both fourth. He’s also faced at least 24 batters in 19 of his 20 starts. By ERA, his 3.52 mark is just seventh on tonight’s slate, but by all other metrics, Strasburg is having a great year.