Aaron Ashby Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Monday night is a perfect slate to consider paying down for pitching, even on a single pitcher site and let’s start with the highest strikeout rate on the board and the highest projected FanDuel value on the board for less than $8K on either site. The Brewers tried to pull a fast one, starting Aaron Ashby on three days rest prior to the break with the intention of quickly following with Jason Alexander. It backfired, as two of the seven batters he faced scored. Ashby has a 26.2 K% since permanently joining the rotation with 51.7% of his contact on the ground and an 87.4 mph EV. A .368 BABIP and 21.9 HR/FB with all seven of his barrels (5.8%) leaving the yard over this span, leaves him with a 5.31 ERA that’s about two runs above non-FIP estimators. Part of the problem is a changeup (1.4 RV/100) a wOBA (.376) more than 100 points above his xwOBA (.272), though things may not get much better here against a predominantly right-handed lineup that smashes changeups at the third best rate in the league this year (1.28 wCH/C). An additional issue is that the Rockies have been really good against LHP overall this year (111 wRC+, 18.7 K%). None the less, Ashby is the only pitcher on the board striking out more than a quarter of batters faced this year and may be worth the risk in GPPs, although two things to check are ownership projections (obviously) and roof status. According to Statcast Park Factors, Milwaukee plays much more hitter friendly with the roof open and is a slightly negative run environment with it closed.

It’ll be interesting to see how the movable object (Zack Greinke 12.7 K%) fares against the resistible force (Angels 27.3 K% vs RHP). Greinke still has elite control (4.5 BB%) with an average contact profile, but has only completed six innings four times with an ERA and estimators all above four and a half. Greinke is a top three projected value on FanDuel for $7.6K, but the top projected value for just $5.9K on DraftKings. This may be the board to take a chance and hope he puts up five or six.

A 79.7 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB are responsible for a 3.79 ERA that’s more than a run below all non-FIP estimators and that includes a 5.01 xERA (10.1% Barrels/BBE). Just 12 of Chris Flexen’s 33 barrels have left the yard, which may partially be a function of the park he pitches half his games in, but it should be tougher to sustain this type of run prevention with an 8.2 K-BB% (90.4 Z-Contact%) and 90 mph EV with just a 32.7 GB%. He pitches in that park tonight against the Rangers (93 wRC+, 23.4 K%), costing $8.2K on FanDuel, but exactly $1K less on DraftKings, which is enough to make him a top five projected value on either site and top three on the latter.

You can often squint and see a good pitcher inside J.T. Brubaker’s uniform, like his last outing when he three hit the Marlins over seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts and not a single walk, but he walked five Brewers the start before. A 9.5 BB% is the reason his 4.02 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. On a more positive note, he’s allowed just 6.8% Barrels/BBE, so we can be optimistic last year’s second half home run problems won’t plague him again. Despite just four Quality Starts over his last seven, Brubaker has averaged over 26 batters faced over this span. The Cubs have been an average offense vs RHP (99 wRC+, 23.1 K%), but while it’s not a strong wind blowing in day at Wrigley, it is one of the few pitcher friendly weather spots on the board. Brubaker projects as the sixth best DraftKings value for $7.4K ($1.3K more on FD), but may even be a bit under-valued here.