Adam Duvall Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While we don’t find many Braves atop the overall point total projections (PliateIQ) for batters, despite being a top of the board offense by implied run total tonight, we do find several of them atop the point per dollar value projections. In fact, on DraftKings, the top three projected values are all Braves in Alex Dickerson (84 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Travis DeMeritte, who owns a merit for his home run last night, and Adam Duvall (107 wRC+, .266 ISO). This is basically the bottom of the order for the Braves, but they should get some play in a favorable park against Mark Leiter Jr., who has been lit up for nine runs over 7.1 innings with both of his barrels (9.1%) leaving the yard, while he’s struck out seven of 35 batters with six walks. Aside from that, he hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since 2018. This will also give you plenty of room to add Matt Olson (146 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Austin Riley (146 wRC+, .247 ISO) as well.

We also find several Twins among the top point per dollar projections. Michael Pineda may have escaped two trips through the Yankee order without allowing a run in his first start of the season, but he generated just three swings and misses with a 94.1 mph EV. His K-BB has been riding a downward trend the last few years, which is even more important for him because his Barrels/BBE rate is going in the wrong direction. He posted respectable marks of 14.6% and 8.9% last year, but if it gets any worse, he may lose his usefulness. Projections believe Miguel Sano (106 wRC+, .277 ISO), Nick Gordon (84 wRC+, .140 ISO) and Trevor Larnach (102 wRC+, .129 ISO) to be the best DraftKings values against him, though Luis Arraez (120 wRC+) also costs just $3.2K.

It’s more interesting to find several Yankees and a couple of Astros among the top value projections on FanDuel. Joey Gallo (122 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (82 wRC+, .091 ISO) cost less than $2.5K, while Giancarlo Stanton (130 wRC+, .238 ISO) costs less than $3K against Tyler Wells. Kyle Tucker (143 wRC+, .235 ISO) is projected to bat leadoff and costs just $2.7K, the same as Michael Brantley (157 wRC+, .143 ISO), against Glen Otto, who has exhibited a massive platoon split in his small major league sample thus far (LHBs .441 wOBA, .401 xwOBA). Aledmys Diaz (84 wRC+) costs just $2.1K and projects as a top value as well.

Wednesday’s MLB slate features two elimination games in the National League. This means that no starting pitcher is safe from the quick hook, although the Cardinals certainly have their best pitcher on the mound. Jack Flaherty struck out eight of the 29 Braves he faced, walking just one with a single HR and three earned runs despite keeping 60% of his contact on the ground. He ties for the slate lead with a 29.9 K% this year and his 2.75 ERA tops the board by more than a full half run, though his estimators are more in line with the two pitchers in Los Angeles tonight. Flaherty’s 80.6 Z-Contact% is best on the board by nearly four full points and his 86.1 mph aEV is best on the board by more than a mile per hour. At Flaherty’s $7.4K price tag on DraftKings, he may be the best value there. The Braves had a 23.2 K% vs RHP this year, although today’s specific lineup features just four batters below a 17 K%.

Offensively, it’s a very tight board with only the Nationals outside a 3.75 to 4.0 implied run range. Atlanta is the much more hitter friendly run environment here too. The surprise in this lineup is Adam Duvall (91 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this year), who’s had some big hits in this series, replacing Matt Joyce. While Flaherty had just 18 points separating his wOBA between RH and LH batters this season (both below .270), his xwOBA pushed that past 60 points (LHBs .306), making this a questionable decision. A healthy Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO) would be the top bat in this spot, but there’s some question about how healthy he really is. Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO) are more league average bats against RHP, while Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO) is certainly viable behind the plate here.

Mike Foltynewicz has the worst season numbers on the board. His 21.4 K% is the only mark below 29% and his estimators (all above four) are the only ones above four. In fact, he owns the only DRA above three and his .325 xwOBA is worst on the board by exactly 50 points. That said, he struck out seven of 24 Cardinals, allowing just three hits without a run in his first start of the series and finished up on quite the run. After being recalled to the majors in August, he has a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 16.5 K-BB% in 10 starts. With the top park neutral matchup on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), Folty is at least viable in a secondary DraftKings spot at the lowest price on the board ($6K). Dexter Fowler (107 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP) is the lowest priced Cardinal on DraftKings ($3.7K) and potentially the top value bat in this game (also below $3K on FanDuel). Marcell Ozuna (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been heating up in this series. Paul DeJong (104 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Yadiers Molina (77 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup outside a 97-113 wRC+ range vs RHP this year.

Mike Montgomery has walked six with as many strikeouts over his last 14 innings (12 ERs). He has allowed the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph EV (45%) and has the second highest xwOBA on the board (.388). Batters from either side of the plate have tattooed him for a wOBA and xwOBA above .350. An Atlanta lineup likely lacking Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman tonight is still above five implied runs (5.28) and contains several bats who hammer LHP. Injuries may give Adam Duvall (198 wRC+, .424 ISO), Austin Riley (138 wRC+, .403 ISO) or Adeiny Hechavarria (123 wRC+, .304 ISO) a chance to move up the lineup. All are small sample sizes, but all are also below $2.5K on FanDuel. Josh Donaldson (124 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Ozzie Albies (189 wRC+, .306 ISO) are your more established bats, who will most certainly bat towards the top of the lineup.

Jason Vargas’s tenure in Philadelphia hasn’t been very efficient so far. He’s sporting a 4.93 ERA and it’s not even really the contact that’s worsened with the park downgrade. He still has a 4.62 FIP that’s right in line with his season rate, allowing just four HRs in seven starts. His .305 xwOBA over the last 30 days is 42 points less than actual results and seven points lower than his season xwOBA. It’s been the strikeout rate that has actually plummeted all the way down to 13.9%. This is an incredibly dangerous spot for Vargas with a 37.9 GB%. The projected lineup for the Braves features six batters above a 115 wRC+ and five with a .250 ISO or above vs LHP this year. In small samples, Adam Duvall (194 wRC+, .407 ISO, .399 xwOBA) and Austin Riley (167 wRC+, .455 ISO, .439 xwOBA) have destroyed southpaws. Each costs exactly $4K on DraftKings and $2.5K or less on FanDuel. Affordable compliments to a powerful top half of the lineup, likely containing Ronald Acuna (131 wRC+, .281 ISO), Ozzie Albies (175 wRC+, .296 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (123 wRC+, .250 ISO). All three are above a 130 wRC+ and 45% hard hit rate over the last week. The Braves are currently seventh on the board at 5.31 implied runs tonight.

Caleb Smith has been dominant at times this year (29.1 K%), but he’s also benefited from his home ballpark with a 28.5 GB% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. In fact, 14 of his 21 HRs have been surrendered in just 54.2 road innings this year. This is a dangerous spot for him against an Atlanta lineup featuring four batters above a .270 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Ronald Acuna (157 wRC+, .292 ISO), Ozzie Albies (172 wRC+, .277 ISO), Josh Donaldson (134 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Adam Duvall (84 wRC+, .273 ISO) might be considered a contrarian approach as Smith may not want to attack, despite a healthy 5.57 implied run line. Another benefit is that he hasn’t gone beyond five innings in five straight starts. That leaves a depleted Miami bullpen with a 7.06 FIP over the last 30 days to pick up the slack.

Patrick Corbin has allowed a total of eight runs over his last seven starts. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board and possibly the top overall pitcher tonight. He and Keuchel are the only pitchers on the board averaging more than six innings per start this year, an out to two more per outing than all other high priced starters tonight. His 28.5 K% is third best on the slate, just 2.5 points off the lead. His 3.25 ERA and 3.80 SIERA are second best. A 3.12 DRA is third, while owning the only sub-30 Z-O-Swing% (28.7) on this board. He has had some issues with contact. An 89.7 mph aEV and 10.1% Barrels/BBE are both second worst on the board, but four other pitchers are above his 40.1% 95+ mph EV and his .268 xwOBA over the last month is fourth best. The Braves have been just as good against LHP as they are RHP. A 103 wRC+ is supported by a 17.4 HR/FB and 24.1 Hard-Soft%. Corbin’s usage does not preclude the use of lefty mashing Ronald Acuna (193 wRC+, .338 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Ozzie Albies (168 wRC+, .235 ISO) or Austin Riley (188 wRC+, .468 ISO) on a small slate, but the Braves have also produced a lineup tonight featuring five batters above a 26 K% vs LHP this year, according to Plate IQ. That total does not include the pitcher’s spot or Adam Duvall (24.8 career K% vs LHP). There are more strikeouts here than players may think.

Austin Gomber is the second consecutive Cardinals’ pitcher making his first start, but this is not his MLB debut. He’s made 15 relief appearances this year with a 3.4 K-BB%, 27 GB% and 35.9 Hard%. He has made 11 AAA starts with a 19.6 K-BB%. Vegas is heavily siding with the home team (5.04 implied runs) and projecting the major league version of Gomber will struggle in a power friendly park. Eugenio Suarez (171 wRC+, .261 ISO) has been a destroyer of LHP over the last calendar year. Adam Duvall (112 wRC+, .237 ISO) can still do some damage as well and bumps up a few spots tonight. Gomber, has actually had more issues with LHBs at the major league level (.457 wOBA, .477 xwOBA) and will be facing two of them who handle LHP well at the top of the order in Scooter Gennett (117 wRC+, .124 ISO) and Joey Votto (112 wRC+, .184 ISO). Remember that the Reds were completely shut down by an unknown Cardinals' pitcher last night though.