Albert Pujols Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

St Louis is a negative run environment that suppresses power, especially during the cooler months of the year, but Weather Edge is currently suggesting a major overall offensive and power boost here tonight. Combine that with the Dodgers visiting and J.A. Happ on the mound and you have what we might call a Smash Spot. This game does not yet have a total because the Dodgers haven’t confirmed a starting pitcher (though Mitch White is expected to pitch the bulk), but you can probably have some confidence that the visiting team will be above five runs here. Happ allowed just seven runs over 28 innings in his first five starts for the Cardinals without any real change to his underlying profile, but then got smacked in the face by the Reds last time out with seven of the 13 batters he faced scoring with two home runs and walks without a strikeout. He doesn’t have a single estimator below five and RHBs have a .383 wOBA, .364 xwOBA against him, while he hasn’t exactly dominated LHBs either (.322 wOBA, .329 xwOBA). Albert Pujols, projected to bat cleanup, has been crushing LHP this year (151 wRC+, .317 ISO) and costs less than $3K on either site, including $100 above the minimum on FanDuel. Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .252 ISO) has a .399 xwOBA and five extra base hits in 49 career PAs against Happ, mostly coming when the lefty was a much better pitcher, during their AL East battles. Trea Turner (188 wRC+, .273 ISO) is a top bat tonight. Don’t sleep on the Cardinals either. LHBs have a .315 wOBA, but .335 xwOBA against White this season, while Tommy Edman (145 wRC+ last 30 days) and Dylan Carlson (124 wRC+ last 30 days) have been hitting the ball well and are very affordable.

We’ve already established that this board is sort of a pitching paradise with just three teams above five implied runs and then more than a half run drop off to the fourth highest team total. It gets even more difficult than that with the Angels (5.45) right behind Boston (5.84) and potentially the top batter on the board (Shohei Ohtani) not even available because he’s pitching. A reasonably priced Kyle Schwarber (156 wRC+, .379 ISO vs RHP) is likely to appear in a ton of lineups tonight against Bailey Ober (LHBs .379 wOBA, .357 ISO), but he alone is not going to cut it, so where else should players be looking to save some money in their lineups.

First, let’s jump in our way back machine and pretend it’s 2005 because Albert Pujols has been smashing LHP this year (153 wRC+, .305 ISO). Striking out 34 of his last 90 with a more reasonable 10 walks, Blake Snell has a 2.45 ERA and 2.97 xFIP over his last four starts, but Pujols costs less than $2.3K on either site and is projected to bat cleanup for the Dodgers tonight. Also projected to bat cleanup for less than $3K on either site is Luis Arraez (130 wRC+, .368 xwOBA vs RHP), right there in Boston against Nick Pivetta (LHBs .314 wOBA, .323 xwOBA). Ohtani is not available in Baltimore, but Brandon Marsh is for less than $3K with a 114 wRC+ and .344 xwOBA vs RHP so far. Lastly, Michael Chavis (88 wRC+, .343 ISO vs LHP) is projected to lead off against Tyler Gilbert (RHBs .345 wOBA, .325 xwOBA) and costs the minimum on FanDuel.

In 11 career games as a starting pitcher, Josh Smith has a 6.70 ERA with a 5.83 xFIP, 4.6% K-BB and 1.82 (!) WHIP. He’s also allowed a .377 xwOBA and 88.8 MPH aEV in those starts. With the exception of Mike Trout, the Angels have a nice selection of bats that have upside and are affordable. Mike Trout (.473 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Shohei Ohtani (.378), Kole Calhoun (.333), David Fletcher (.323), Brian Goodwin (.322), Justin Upton (.314), Kevan Smith (.302) and Albert Pujols (.299) are all in play tonight. Brian Goodwin (.410) has been the Angels’ hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks, followed by Trout with a .399 mark. Fletcher (projected to leadoff) and Upton (projected to bat 4th) are both available for just $3.7k on Draftkings tonight. Calhoun ($4.4k), Pujols ($4k) and Kevan Smith ($2.9k) also look like nice values on DK. Ohtani ($4.9k) and Trout ($5.5k) are by far the two most expensive bats here but could be well worth it as both have continued to mash RHP this year. All Angels’ bats project for decently low ownership tonight, making them an intriguing GPP stack.

Since 2017, Hector Santiago has a 5.06 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 8% K-BB and 50.6% FB rate and just a 16.3% soft contact rate, as well as a .354 xwOBA allowed and an 89.4 MPH aEV in 184 innings. Over 43 innings in AAA this year, Santiago had an uninspiring 5.57 xFIP and 12.7% BB rate. Though he’s a lefty, Santiago has actually been worse vs. lefties; since 2017, he owns a .390 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties compared to a .342 xwOBA vs. righties. Mike Trout (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kole Calhoun (.365), Albert Pujols (.350), Wilfredo Tovar (.333), David Fletcher (.321), Shoehei Ohtani (.285) Max Stassi (.222), Justin Upton (.226) are all options in the LAA projected order. Trout has been on fire recently with a .465 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, while Albert Pujols (.222) and Max Stassi (.124) have really struggled. Stassi might still be worth a shot at a price of just $2k on Draftkings. Projected leadoff man David Fletcher is just $3.4k on Draftkings and one of the better values on the slate. Justin Upton is just $4k on DK; he’s been bad this year but figures to turn it around soon as he has a 121 career wRC+ and has never finished below a 105 wRC+ in any season. The Angels have a healthy 5.79 implied total vs. Santiago and the White Sox.

Brian Johnson has not exceeded 19 batters in any of his outings this year, including three starts, so he’s only likely to go through the lineup twice, but that may be enough for the Angels to cause significant damage. For his career, almost 500 batted balls recorded by Statcast, opponents have barreled 8.8% of contact. To exacerbate this issue, the Angels have just a 17.9 K% vs LHP this year and Fenway is a highly positive run environment. It gets even worse for Johnson. RHBs own a .417 wOBA (.392 xwOBA) against him over the last calendar year. The outlook for Mike Trout (151 wRC+, .272 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is tremendous tonight, but Albert Pujols (112 wRC+, .230 ISO) has been no slouch with the platoon advantage either and costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. For those looking to punt the catcher position, it’s not a large sample, but Kevan Smith (177 wRC+, .191 ISO, .419 xwOBA) costs just $3.3K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel for an offense implied for 5.32 runs.

If you’re playing the late afternoon slate you’ll certainly want some exposure to Angels bats, as the Angels have the highest total with the best matchup on the slate. They’ll face Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled to a 5.48 ERA, 5.43 xFIP and 5.44 SIERA with a 6.9% K-BB over the past 30 days. He’s also allowed a .363 xwOBA and 89.2 MPH aEV over that time frame. Over his 98 career innings, Kikuchi has shown a pretty wide platoon split, with a .308 xwOBA allowed vs. left-handed batters compared to a .352 xwOBA allowed vs. righties. Mike Trout (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP on the year), Albert Pujols (.368), David Fletcher (.331), Luis Rengifo (.315), Andrelton Simmons (.268) and Justin Upton (career 129 wRC+ vs. LHP) are all right-handed options in the LAA projected order. Kole Calhoun (.375) and Shohei Ohtani (.350) are also in play. Trout has been by far the Angels’ hottest bat with a scorching .499 xwOBA over the past 30 days, followed by Ohtani with a .387 mark. While Ohtani and Trout are both well over $5k on Draftkings, Fletcher, Upton, Simmons and Pujols are all projected in the top 6 of the order and can be had for $4.1k or less. The Angels currently have a 6.01 implied line vs. Kikuchi and the M’s this afternoon.

The Angels only managed two runs last night in a great matchup vs. Mike Fiers, but we can confidently go back to them again tonight in a matchup vs. Brett Anderson. Anderson has a 4.26 ERA / 5.13 xFIP / 5.43 SIERA so far on the season with a 3.6% K-BB, 7.7% SwStr and 41.2% hard contact rate. Even worse, he’s allowed a .360 xwOBA with an 89 MPH aEV on the year. The Angels have the 3rd hottest offense in baseball over the past 30 days with a 117 wRC+ and have a lineup full of options tonight vs. Anderson. Mike Trout (.488 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Albert Pujols (.386), Kole Calhoun (.352), Tommy La Stella (.338), David Fletcher (.337), Shohei Ohtani (.325) and Justin Upton (.307 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018) are all in play. Andrelton Simmons (.269) is also in play. Trout has been their hottest hitter with a .451 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Upton with a .404 xwOBA. Pujols, Simmons, Upton and Fletcher are all available for $4.1k or less on Draftkings. Fletcher is especially intriguing as he is projected to leadoff, while Upton projects to bat 4th. The Angels have a solid 5.16 implied line tonight vs. Anderson and the A’s.

Mike Fiers has pitched much worse than his ERA suggests this year, as he’s put up a 4.20 ERA while also posting a 5.54 xFIP, 5.30 SIERA with an 8.5% K-BB%, 43.1% FB rate and .329 xwOBA. Fiers has shown no signs of improvement as he has a 5.65 xFIP, 5.60 SIERA, 6.4% K-BB and 41.3% FB rate. The Angels have been the hottest offense in baseball over the past month with a 121 wRC+ and will have a number of good options in their lineup tonight at home vs. Fiers. Mike Trout (.496 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Upton (.472 in 33 PA), Shohei Ohtani (.397), Tommy La Stella (.361), Kole Calhoun (.349), Luis Rengifo (.329), Albert Pujols (.312) and Jonathan Lucroy (.322) are all in play tonight vs. Fiers. Justin Bour is also an intriguing option as he has a .469 xwOBA over the past 14 days as he seems to have straightened his swing out during his time in the minors; he can be had for just $4k on Draftkings. Tommy La Stella ($4k), Justin Upton ($3.9k), Kole Calhoun ($4k) and Jonathan Lucroy ($3.1k) all stand out as great values. The Angels have a healthy 5.44 implied total vs. Fiers and the A’s tonight.

Clayton Richard has a 12.6 K% which immediately removes him from daily fantasy consideration, especially against an offense with a 16.3 K% vs LHP. So the question becomes, what should we expect to be done against him. It’s not always so easy as Richard has not been below a 56 GB% since 2013, but this year he dips to 55.9%, which is still great, but he has allowed a HR in four straight starts with 57.4% of his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. A .367 xwOBA confirms, he’s generating rockets all over the field, so it’s no surprise that the Angels own the top implied run line on the board tonight at 5.75. Richard has faced 308 RHBs over the last calendar year, a large enough sample for his .389 wOBA and .399 xwOBA with a 44.1 Hard% (51.5 GB%) to be quite terrifying. Mike Trout (145 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be favored to homer tonight and Albert Pujols (118 wRC+, .284 ISO) has remained a formidable presence against southpaws. David Fletcher (84 wRC+, .105 ISO) and Justin Upton (50 wRC+, .128 ISO) have been less successful, but are also expected to have some value in this spot, projected in the top half of this lineup.

Yusei Kikuchi has had an up and down rookie year which has ultimately amounted to a 4.43 ERA / 4.66 xFIP / 4.70 SIERA with an 11.7% K-BB. Kikuchi does have a decent .317 xwOBA allowed, but has surrendered a .333 xwOBA allowed over the past month along with a 5.57 xFIP, 6.09 SIERA and just a 5% K-BB. The Angels have been the MLB’s 3rd hottest hitting team over the past 10 days and have lots of good options in their lineup tonight. Mike Trout (.423 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kevan Smith (.417), Albert Pujols (.380), Kole Calhoun (.376) and David Fletcher (.365) have all been very solid options vs. LHP on the year and are in the projected lineup. David Fletcher is projected to leadoff for the Angels and costs just $4.2k on Draftkings. Cesar Puello is another option with a 223 wRC+ in 28 PA on the year, he costs just $4.1k. Trout has been the hottest hitter with a scorching .560 xwOBA over the past 10 days, followed by Puello at .440. The Angels have a healthy 5.00 implied line vs. Kikuchi and the M’s tonight.