Alcides Escobar Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

When players see the Kansas City Royals with the second highest run line on the board (5.33), above even one of the teams playing at Coors tonight, the thought might be that there's some mistake. The mistake is that Chris Tillman is still starting major league games. He has a board worst .455 xwOBA and 5.5 SwStr%, while allowing at least four runs in all five starts against major league lineups this season (Detroit doesn't count). Batters from either side have raked above a .390 wOBA and xwOBA with a hard hit rate above 38% since last season. Mike Moustakas (130 wRC+, .286 ISO), Lucas Duda (128 wRC+, .279 ISO), Salvador Perez (98 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Whit Merrifield (102 wRC+, .147 ISO) are the average or better hitters against RHP over the last calendar year. All have at least a 110 wRC+ and 31 Hard% over the last week too. Alcides Escobar (60 wRC+) and Cheslor Cuthbert (56 wRC+) are probably the only Royals worth excluding here.

The Royals load up a lineup of seven right-handed batters against the oft-injured Andrew Heaney in his 2018 major league debut. You might think that a poor omen for a pitcher who has allowed 27 HRs to 550 righties faced in his career (.349 wOBA). Behind Whit Merrifield (108 wRC+, .185 ISO vs LHP since 2017) the next highest wRC+ belongs to Alcides Escobar (97) and only the two lefties (Mike Moustakas 96 wRC+, .188 ISO and Lucas Duda 58 wRC+, .198 ISO) have ISOs above .152. Heaney has missed almost all of the last two seasons (27.2 IP) after Tommy John surgery. His lone start this month comes in High A, where he struck out six of 22 batters, but the workload is the important thing here. He's facing a poor offense in not a pitcher friendly park, but a power suppressing one, which should support his career 38.8 GB%, at a low price. At $5.9K, he's one of several lottery tickets on DraftKings if paying up for Cole.

Michael Fulmer has a declining strikeout rate (just nine of his last 81 batters), but strong contact management (85.6 mph aEV, 27.4% 95+ mph EV) has led him to a .266 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB that may not be sustainable, but could serve him well against an impatient Kansas City offense (6.3 BB% vs RHP) without much power (9.1 HR/FB). He's gone at least eight innings in three of four starts and these Kansas City traits should keep his pitch count low enough that it's a strong possibility again. A warm and humid forecast makes it a more power friendly environment than that big park usually is, which is somewhat of a concern when paying more than $9K for mostly contact managment. The Royals are smack in the middle of the board with a 4.44 implied run line, but the Daily K Predictor only has Fulmer for 3.84 tonight (second lowest) even though the RotoGrinders Player Projections have him as either the third or fourth best arm tonight without any Kansas City bats grading out particularly strongly. Eric Hosmer (120 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since last season) does have a 100.5 mph aEV (seven BBEs) with a HR against him in 13 PAs. Hitting the ball hard has never been his problem though. It's been getting it off the ground (24.7 FB% vs RHP since last season vs Fulmer's 48.2 GB% vs LHBs). Fulmer has little platoon split for his career, holding all batters below a .280 wOBA, though LHBs have a 31.3 Hard% (exactly four points higher than RHBs). While both Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez have a 120+ wRC+, .240+ ISO vs RHP this year, neither has a wRC+ above 50 since the All-Star break. Aside from Whit Merrifield (177 wRC+), it's been the bottom of the Kansas City order than's come out hammering since the break. Alcides Escobar (177 wRC+, 40 Hard%) and Brandon Moss (136 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%) are the only other batters in the lineup above a 75 wRC+ over the last week. This spot seems to call for either siding with Fulmer or fading, but buyer beware that he may not have the strikeout capabilities to make up for any trouble he finds himself in tonight. One additional consideration is that Fulmer throws his slider 30% of the time to RHBs and PlateIQ tells us that most Kansas City RHBs have handled the slider well this year, while Moustakas and Moss handle the change fairly well (Fulmer's favored secondary pitch against LHBs).

Players looking to play up for pitching or Coors bats should have plenty of cost saving opportunities elsewhere on this slate. Though not yet confirmed, Matt Joyce (121 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since last season) may bat near the top of the Oakland lineup against Ricky Nolasco. He costs less than than $3K on either site, along with teammate Yonder Alonso (339 wRC+, 5 HRs last seven days) for $2.8K on DraftKings. Joey Rickard (127 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP career) bats leadoff against Gio Gonzalez for the minimum cost on Fanduel ($1K more on DraftKings). Andrew Toles (123 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) meets that price tag on DraftKings against rookie Trevor Williams. Wilmer Flores (196 wRC+, .381 ISO vs LHP since last season) mashes lefties (Matt Moore) out of the cleanup spot tonight ($3.1K on DK, $2.3K on FD). Teammate T.J. Rivera bats second for less than $3K on either site. Tommy Pham bats further down in the order for the Cardinals, but brings players a 369 wRC+ over the last week for the minimum on FanDuel ($3K on DraftKings). Jordy Mercer (111 wRC+, .185 ISO since last season) may also now hit leadoff for less than $3K against replacement Alex Wood. Looking at below average leadoff bats on the cheap might bring you more towards Wilmer Difo ($3.1K DK, $2.3K FD) and Alcides Escobar ($3K DK, $2.2K FD).

Jose Quintana is a quality pitcher but his strand rate (81.1%) is 4.5 points above his previous career best, while his SwStr rate is plummeting (7.8% now). It’s well below average and his career rate now, though his K% is up (22.3% a career high). These issues may be significant enough to take him out of play for more than $9K in a marginal spot in Kansas City. While this is still not a pitcher players should normally attack as the Royals are projected for just 3.8 runs, there may be some value in the top three spots filled by RHBs, who have hit LHP well (all 150+ wRC+ this season) at a low cost ($3.5K or below on DK, $3K or below on FD). Lorenzo Cain is the top lefty masher here (179 wRC+, .254 ISO) and is not even the most expensive of the three on FanDuel ($2.8K), while Orlando and Cuthbert both add an ISO above .150 to their 150+ wRC+ against LHP this season. Cuthebert even has two HRs in nine PAs against Quintana. It seems a far cry and major improvement over consistently batting Alcides Escobar leadoff the last few years.

Chris Sale has to be part of the daily fantasy discussion whenever he pitches, but the big lefty has struggled in recent starts and has just a 7.6 SwStr% over teh last month. The pitch to contact approach has been less successful recently as there was no way he was holding a BABIP around .200. It's still at .244 and probably still has some regression left, but hopefully he'll reconsider this approach and get back to being Chris Sale. He's still one of tonight's top five overall pitchers in all likelihood, but for more than $11K, he may be just a marginal buy. We're obviously still not interested in attacking him, but there has been one interesting development in the Kansas City lineup. Whit Merrifield has displaced Alcides Escobar (2nd) atop the Kansas City lineup and nearly anyone had to be a better choice.

This Royals lineup is more or less the worst possible opponent a pitcher like Gallardo could face. First, he hasn't been missing many bats this year as evidenced by his very poor 4.8 SwStr% and 12.7% K-rate to start the season. Second, the Royals are elite at putting the ball in play and making the defense work, which doesn't bode particularly well for an Orioles team that was built to hit. Gallardo doesn't have polarizing split stats, so hitters from both sides are squarely in play here. The lefties towards the top of the lineup are in the best spots; Mike Moustakas (.387 wOBA, .209 ISO, 39.6 hard% vs. RHs at home last year), Eric Hosmer (.396 wOBA, .222 ISO, 37.0 hard% vs. RHs at home last year) and Kendrys Morales (.384 wOBA, .242 ISO, 37.3 hard% vs. RHs at home last season) are all recommended targets. Lorenzo Cain remains a strong play hitting in the 3-spot, while Alcides Escobar is a suitable (albeit unexciting) punt play atop the order.