Aledmys Diaz Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Though the Astros have clinched home field advantage through the World Series, they’ll still play their starters this afternoon in what looks to be a great spot. They’ll face Dillon Peters, whose 4.72 ERA looks pretty lucky when you look at his 5.40 xFIP, 43.8% hard contact rate, .349 xwOBA allowed, 8% barrel rate and 88.8 MPH aEV. The Astros have completely mashed lefties this year to the tune of a league-leading 130 wRC+ this year, and have plenty of good options in their order this afternoon. Jose Altuve (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yordan Alvarez (.394), Martin Maldonado (.386), George Springer (.383), Alex Bregman (.379), Aledmys Diaz (.340) and Yuli Gurriel (.324) are all great options today. Bregman and Diaz have both been hot with xwOBAs over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Altuve looks like the best value in the lineup, batting 2nd at just $4.6k on DK / $4.1k on FanduelThe Astros have a healthy 6.04 implied total vs. Peters and the Angels.

On the shelf for over 3 months with a shoulder injury, Felix Hernandez has unsurprisingly struggled in three starts since returning from the IL. He’s posted a .374 xwOBA allowed, 7.24 FIP, 2.6 HR/9 and 6.9% K-BB in those 3 starts, and threw just 34 of 70 pitches for strikes in his most recent outing. Felix has been in a sharp decline for a few years now as his ERA each year has gone from 3.82 -> 4.36 -> 5.55 -> 6.02 from 2016 to this year. He doesn’t figure to last very long in this game, so Astros’ bats project to get plenty of plate appearances vs. a Mariners’ bullpen that has a middling .321 xwOBA allowed over the past month. Yordan Alvarez (.415 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), George Springer (.396), Michael Brantley (.377), Alex Bregman (.368), Aledmys Diaz (.311) and Josh Reddick (.305) are all good options in the Astros’ projected order. Springer has a .437 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, but will be making (if he plays) his first start since being carted off after crashing into the wall a few days ago. Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez will also require a $5k+ price on Draftkings, while Brantley comes in at $4.4k. The Astros currently have a healthy 6.55 implied total.

Mike Fiers has survived a low strikeout rate (15.8%) due to a great defense (.277 team BABIP) and lots of popups (39.9 GB%, 15.8 IFFB%) in a park designed to increase those results. Still, even his .324 xwOBA won’t subscribe to his 3.64 ERA, while non-FIP estimators are all at least a run removed. He’ll remain in a negative run environment in Houston, but one without so much foul ground and as Homer Baily found out last night, this Houston team can rake. In addition to their 115 wRC+ and 18.3 K% vs RHP, they are the hottest team in the land, leading the majors with a 152 wRC+ over the last week (24.6 HR/FB, 36.5 Hard-Soft%). While Fiers has hidden his contact issues with RHBs behind a .314 wOBA over the last calendar year, a .366 xwOBA and 42 Hard% suggest more difficulty and that’s bad news against a Houston offense featuring several prominent RH bats who handle same-handed pitching well. Implied for 5.3 runs (fourth), George Springer (152 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Alex Bregman (155 wRC+, .256 ISO) strong options tonight. How hard has Houston been hitting the ball recently? The only batter in the projected lineup with more than 10 PAs over the last week (excluding only Aledmys Diaz) below a 50% hard hit rate and 139 wRC+ is Josh Reddick (25 wRC+, 21.1 Hard%). The good fortune of Mike Fiers could come to an abrupt halt tonight.

Tyler Glasnow has not thrown more than 87 pitches in any of his three starts and that was in his first, while being held to three innings in each of his last two. You can safely forget about him against the Cardinals on DraftKings for more than $7K, but he costs just $4.4K on FanDuel and is a top pitching prospect with some enormous strikeout rates in the minors. Projected for just 4.4 runs and likely to see the bullpen early, players might consider just sticking to top half of the order bats like Carpenter (149 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Diaz (150 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Piscotty (110 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who hit pitchers from either side fairly well here, though Molina and Peralta both have a wRC+ above 190 over the last week and cost $3.7K or less on either site.

Dan Straily is an extreme fly ball pitcher, who has now allowed 20 HRs over his last 17 starts and has a 12.9 BB% in September. That leads to multi-run homers. His ERA doesn't necessarily reflect performance due to a .238 BABIP and 80.7 LOB%. Despite a power suppressing environment, the Cardinals have a league average HR rate at home and a bit more power vs RHP (14.9 HR/FB), while Straily has actually been hit a bit harder by RHBs since last season (.314 wOBA, 34.2 Hard%). This is an advantage to the Cardinals who stack up RHBs against him tonight. Chris Carpenter (149 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is still so good that he's the top bat, but we're looking at a reasonably priced lineup with perhaps a lot of value on either site, but especially FanDuel, where Randal Grichuk (120 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $3.1K and Aledmys Diaz (148 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) costs $3.3K. Piscotty (110 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Peralta (108 wRC+, .129 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs $3.7K or less on either site.

Anthony DeSclafani has a 3.38 ERA because 12% of his runs have been unearned. He's not in a terrible spot against a Cardinals offense that has been struggling and has just a 100 wRC+ at home, but still seems over-priced, especially for $9.6K on DraftKings. While LHBs have a .359 wOBA against him this season, there's some value to be had in Cardinals bats, especially on DraftKings, where Matt Carpenter (143 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $3.8K. In fact, Grichuk (104 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this season) and Diaz (150 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) are the only other bats above $3.3K on DK. Greg Garcia (123 wRC+ vs RHP) bats eighth, but could serve as a middle infield punt on either site if necessary. Matt Adams is an unfortunate omission tonight.

Tyler Anderson did allow six runs (five earned) in his last start in Arizona, but still struck out seven. He has been able to sustain a healthy 14.7 K-BB% and 52.2 GB% with a hard hit rate just below 30% at home this season, which nearly makes him Cy Young material in that park. Though the Cardinals have a 107 wRC+ and 15.7 HR/FB on the road, they strike out more than average (22.1% on the road), are below average vs LHP (96 wRC+) and have just a 47 wRC+ with a 24.5 K% over the last week. Yet they are currently projected for the third highest run total on the board (5.6). That's actually not very high for Coors and they are going from one extreme (San Francisco) to another. Tyler Anderson may not even be a bad choice tonight for below $7K, but is he necessary on this board? Piscotty (161 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Diaz (100 wRC+, .156 ISO vs LHP) are probably the top bats with RHBs (.328 wOBA) having a significant advantage on LHBs (.260 wOBA) against Anderson. Both are fairly expensive, but not over-priced for Coors.

To say John Lester has found his groove would simply be an understatement as the left-hander has posted a perfect 7-0 record to go along with a 1.65 ERA in ten starts since the All-Star break. He'll look to keep things rolling this afternoon against the division rival St. Louis Cardinals, but should face at least some resistance as many of these St. Louis hitters have handled the bat decently against him in the past. Stephen Piscotty leads the Red Birds with an impressive .425 wOBA and .287 ISO against left-handed pitching and looks to be the top option, with the other top seven in this order acceptable secondary options.