Alek Manoah Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

DraftKings and FanDuel each feature seven game main slates with an early start on this holiday, but not the same seven games at the same start times. FanDuel will go a full hour earlier with the Giants at Diamondbacks, but omit the second game of the double header in Detroit, which is included on the DraftKings slate, starting a half hour later. DraftKings doesn’t feature any $10K pitchers tonight, while FanDuel has four. PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and subject to change, foresee an essential tie atop the board. One of those pitchers being Alek Manoah, the most expensive arm on either site, though $1.7K less on DraftKings. It may not be the strikeout rate we were hoping for (22.7%), but Manoah has failed to produce a Quality Start just twice this season and accumulating large enough strikeout totals by consistently pitching deep into games with excellent control (5.1 BB%) and contact management (86.8 mph EV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE, 25.9% 95+ mph EV). That contact profile generates a 2.80 xERA that’s his only estimator within a run of a 2.09 ERA (.253 BABIP, 81.4 LOB%, 6.7 HR/FB), but all are below four. It’s certainly the matchup and park you’re looking for in Oakland (A’s 68 wRC+, 4.8 HR/FB at home, 73 wRC+, 24 K%, 7.9 HR/FB vs RHP). Manoah is also a top five projected value on either site. To find out which pitchers project similarly to Manoah tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A 12 game Tuesday night slate offers three pitchers reaching the $10K mark on both sites and two more on just one site, but no more than $200 below $10K on the other. Alek Manoah is the most expensive pitcher on the board, as he hits $11K on FanDuel, but is exactly $1K less on DraftKings. He also carries the lowest PlateIQ projection of the five currently (though projections are fluid and subject to change). With more than five strikeouts in just one of his last five starts, Manoah has just a 19.2 K% over the last month, but an 11.5 SwStr% suggests there’s not much reason for concern. A 23 K% on the season gives him a strong 19 K-BB%, while adding an exceptional contact profile (86.8 mph EV, 2.8% Barrels/BBE, 26.6% 95+ mph EV). He’s averaging a single barrel every other start, which is probably unsustainable, but still impressive enough to be mentioned. The only time he’s failed to produce a Quality Start this season is the one start he only lasted five innings. Aside from a 2.52 xERA that considers the contact profile, additional estimators are all above three, but well below four. The Royals have a 79 wRC+ and 6.3 HR/FB at home. Against RHP, they own a 90 wRC+ and 21.3 K%. It’s not as high upside as you’d like, but there’s probably a very high floor here. If he’s likely to have the lowest ownership numbers, Manoah could be a strong pivot from some better projected arms. For more on a couple of top arms in great matchups and also a couple in tougher ones, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Alek Manoah and Justin Verlander are the only two pitchers to exceed $10K on a 13 game Friday night slate and each does so on both sites. Manoah has fallen a single inning short of producing a Quality Start in all eight of his outings. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as you’d think (22.3% and just 11 over his last three starts), but the control (4.7 BB%) and contact profile (87.3 mph EV, 2.7% Barrels/BBE) have been elite, while a 12.7 SwStr% suggests the best is yet to come and it could start coming tonight. While the Angels have a 118 wRC+ vs RHP, it comes with a 24.7 K% and Shohei Ohtani left last night’s game early with a back issue. In a tough matchup with some upside, Manoah is only the fifth or sixth best projected pitcher by PlateIQ and could be a bit under-valued in GPPs tonight. For much more on tonight’s top of the board arms, including the potential top projected value on the slate, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Tonight’s seven game slate starts a bit earlier, at 6:40 ET, and features just one pitcher to reach the $10K price point on either site. That’s Alek Manoah, who costs $10.2K on DraftKings and $9.8K on FanDuel. Manoah (2-3.1-4-4.2 IP this spring) is a 2022 breakout candidate, though you could argue that it’s already happened with a 111.2 innings of a 19.0 K-BB% in his rookie campaign. While his 3.22 ERA was about half a run below most of his estimators, his contact profile (86.8 mph EV, 5.8% Barrels/BBE) produced a 3.37 xERA. Despite it’s reputation as band box, Yankee Stadium actually plays fairly neutrally and even slightly negatively via Statcast Park Factors in terms of run environment. Manoah is not projected to be highly owned with other pitchers owning comparable projections in terms of fantasy points (PlateIQ). Perhaps that serves as the attraction here.

Additional pitchers crossing the $9K barrier on either site are Alex Wood, who is the only pitcher to do so on both sites at $9.2K, Ranger Suarez ($9.6K on FD) and Chris Flexen ($9.6K on DK). Alex Wood (2-3.2-4.1-3.1) had a career resurgence in his first year in San Francisco (though he was lit up in his last spring start) with a 19.3 K-BB%, allowing just 5.3% Barrels/BBE with just 50.8% of his contact on the ground. While Wood did suffer a bit of a mid-season slump, he finished it off with just eight runs over his last 30 innings. A 3.83 ERA was within half a run of all his estimators and below only one (3.87 xERA). The Padres have started the season with a team 123 wRC+ against a weak Arizona staff. This is not a terrible spot for him with only four batters in the projected San Diego lineup above a .320 wOBA vs LHP last year. Wood certainly has the potential to be tonight’s top pitcher and even projects as such, but also projects to be the most popular arm on the slate currently.

To say that Suarez (2-3.2) had success in transitioning to the rotation would be a vast under-statement. He flat out dominated with a 1.36 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 25 K%, and 56.7 GB%, allowing just three barrels in 11 starts. Today’s concerns would be about his workload, the Philadelphia defense and the addition of key RH bats to the Mets’ lineup. He’s projected for much lower ownership on FanDuel, where he’s the second most expensive pitcher, but costs just $8.9K on DraftKings. Flexen (3-4-5-4) got about as much as he could out of a 16.9 K% (8.6 SwStr%) last year, due mostly to a 5.4 BB% and allowing just 6.3% Barrels/BBE. Still, his 3.61 ERA was far lower than both his contact including (4.27 xERA) and omitting (4.70 SIERA) estimators. Flexen had a 71 point reverse split last year (RHBs .339 wOBA) that was confirmed by his Statcast profile. His high DK cost is perplexing, as he costs $2.6K less on FD.