Alex Dickerson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Milwaukee Brewers currently have the highest implied run line on the board (5.98) on Opening Day. In fact, they are the only team that exceeds five runs and are only on the main FanDuel slate. For DraftKings players, the Braves (against Tyler Mahle) and Padres (against Madison Bumgarner) are right at five runs. Unsurprisingly, four of the six highest projected ownership percentages among batters belong to San Diego Padres in LineupHQ, as this should be a pretty strong spot against a pitcher who allowed RHBs a .323 wOBA last season and the Padres should be better than their 94 wRC+ against southpaws last year, even without Fernando Tatis. Luke Voit (111 wRC+ vs LHP last year) and Wil Myers (126 wRC+) project as top point per dollar plays (PlateIQ projections), though nobody in the projected lineup reached a .200 ISO against lefties last year.

The Braves project for lower ownership numbers, likely due to their higher price tags with Marcell Ozuna being the exception in both cost and ownership projection. Alex Dickerson (92 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP last year) projects as a top point per dollar value. Tyler Mahle had a reverse split last year (RHBs .357 wOBA, LHBs .257), but including Dickerson in stacks could help differentiate your lineup with more Atlanta hitters, which shouldn’t be too difficult to afford due to a lack of high priced pitching.

In what must surely be a misprint, Merrill Kelly’s game log says that he struck out 12 of 25 Dodgers last time out. That brings his strikeout rate up to 26% over the last month with just a 7.9 SwStr%. This essentially gives him near league average numbers in almost every category that makes up his estimators (4.30 SIERA, 4.14 xFIP, 4.37 FIP, 4.22 DRA). The contact profile pushes him a bit higher (4.68 xERA). While Kelly generally does push deep into games, averaging nearly three times through the order, the Dodger performance is an outlier and while LHBs now have a .292 wOBA against him since last season, according to Statcast, the contact profile pushes that up to .360. This is a great spot for a value bat like Alex Dickerson (124 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2020) or a more expensive Brandon Crawford (140 wRC+, .264 ISO) if either are in the top half of the order tonight. While the Giants are currently implied for 4.5 runs, which places them in the middle of the board, Kelly is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days (6.29 ERA, 4.54 xFIP).

Ryan Castellani has walked 13 of his last 64 batters with just six strikeouts and five HRs. And yet, his 5.59 ERA is still more than half a run below all of his estimators! The combination of a 1.8 K-BB%, 38.3 GB% and 90.9 mph EV is not good. The good news is that he’s allowed 11 HRs, but only eight Barrels, so some of that hard contact will eventually stay in the park to drive his .202 BABIP up. To repeat, he has a 5.59 ERA with just a .202 BABIP. The Giants have a 109 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP with a respectable 14.3 HR/FB at home, as the park in San Francisco has played much less pitcher friendly this year. With batters from either side of the plate above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Castellani, the Giants are likely to own some of the best bats on the board tonight without a single batter in tonight’s projected lineup above $3K on FanDuel. Alex Dickerson (138 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has a 238 wRC+ over the last 30 days that’s second best in baseball among those with at least 10 PAs. He may just be the top bat on the FanDuel main slate tonight.

Lance McCullers Jr. has not looked sharp in his return from Tommy John surgery. In addition to a nearly full mph drop in velocity from pre-TJ levels, he was last seen surrendering eight runs in Arizona, striking out just a single batter. He stands at just a 6.1 K-BB% through three starts and has allowed a long ball in each one. McCullers has sustained his high ground ball rate (55.6%), but his 15.2% Barrels/BBE is still second worst on the board tonight. LHBs have smashed him at a .470 wOBA (.497 xwOBA) in his three starts this year. Be sure to check out Alex Dickerson (117 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2019), who generally bats second against RHPs, for just $2.5K on FanDuel.

Jon Gray gave up some strikeouts for ground balls to help him at Coors last year, he’s taken it to concerning levels so far in 2020 with just an 11.9 K% through two starts and he’s not even getting the ground balls either (42.4%). Add in a two mile per hour velocity drop to 94 mph and more concern begins to drip in. He had an 89.9 mph aEV last year (highest on the board) and a .349 xwOBA in his outings this year, 107 points worse than actual results. Gray has struggled against LHBs since last season (.341 wOBA, .358 xwOBA) and the Giants have several competent ones towards the top of the order tonight. Alex Dickerson (124 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the cheapest one at $3.1K. He has an overall 166 wRC+ so far this year. While Gray is generally a pitcher players don’t like to attack, he hasn’t looked like the same guy through two starts and Coors is likely to make him pay if we see similar tonight.

Chi Chi Gonzalez made 12 starts for the Rockies last year for some reason. He somehow generated just 5.6% Barrels/BBE, but still managed a .349 xwOBA with an ERA and estimators all above five due to a 4.7 K-BB% and he still managed a 17.7 HR/FB. The Giants have been swinging the bats well so far. They have just a 9.5 HR/FB, but get the ultimate park upgrade. LHBs had a .362 wOBA (.386 xwOBA) against Gonzalez last year and a mark that stands at .338 for his career. The Giants are implied for 6.3 runs tonight and Alex Dickerson has been a potent bat against RHP since the start of last season (127 wRC+, .230 ISO). He’s started this year off strong as well (161 wRC+ overall). Dickerson won’t suffer much of a price increase either. He costs just $3.2K on FanDuel.