Alex Reyes Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Each of the four afternoon slate games (three on FanDuel) have at least one interesting pitcher. Three of the games have one team implied for more than five runs with the other below three. Corey Kluber is the most expensive pitcher on the board. He's gone at least six innings in every start and has pitched into the seventh in all but one. He's struck out more than seven just three times since his first start though. His 2.17 ERA remains well below his estimators due to a .236 BABIP and 89.6 LOB%, though his xwOBA (.295) is still a top five mark for the entire day among those with more than a single start. The White Sox have been better than expected offensively, but have a 16.3 K-BB% vs RHP. Even over the last month, Patrick Corbin has a higher strikeout (27.7% to 23.5%) and swinging strike (11.2% to 10.9%) than Kluber. His .276 xwOBA for the season is also 19 points lower. He's in a somewhat neutral spot against the Reds, who do have the highest walk split on the board (10.9% vs LHP). He costs well over $1K less than Kluber on either site. Costing less than $8K on either site, Eduardo Rodriguez has the highest strikeout rate of the three over the last month (30.4%). His .297 xwOBA is just two points above Kluber. He faces an offense that has performed at a below average rate against LHP (90 wRC+, 22.6 K%), but in the worst run environment of the afternoon at Fenway. Top prospect Alex Reyes makes his season debut after Tommy John surgery for the Cardinals this afternoon as well. Fangraphs gives his fastball a 70 grade and suggests he may be a top 20 prospect in the game with a 60 Future Value grade overall. He's made four rehab starts at four different levels, striking out at least 40% of batters faced in each game. His last two starts at AA and AAA: 14.2 IP - 2 H - 0 R - 4 BB - 26 K - 49 BF. He costs just $7K against the Brewers (24.5 K% vs RHP) and may be the play of them all for $7K or less.

Alex Reyes certainly has an electric arm (25.6 K% in six outings at least 3.2 innings since his first start), but also has a double digit walk rate at every stop as a professional, including in the majors this year. The good news is that the Cardinals are still fighting for a Wild Card spot and won’t be pulling punches, but the bad news is that same reasoning saw him throw 115 pitches in his last start. Thoughts are that the Cardinals might prefer not to repeat that, though he’s in a nice spot (Reds 85 wRC+ on the road) in a big park against an offense with below average power and a couple of bats missing tonight. We'd essentially prefer more confidence in 100 pitches and six innings, but with the Reds projected for just 3.3 runs (second lowest on the board) if players go anywhere in this game, it should probably be to side with the pitcher.

In limited innings, Alex Reyes has a healthy 5.24 xFIP versus lefties. His struggles are evident by his drastic splits concerning strikeouts, considering that his 35% strikeout rate versus righties is elite, while his k-rate versus lefties is much more average, sitting at 19%.Reyes is giving up the requisite flyball rate for home runs to happen, giving up a flyball percentage over 42% to both lefties and righties. Dexter Fowler had been in a funk for a large portion of the year coming off of an injury, but he has recently started to pick things up. Fowler's peripheral batted ball numbers back up his results, seeing that he is hitting the ball hard in 37% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last 7 days while striking out an elite 12% of the time. Fowler will not only jump start the offense from the leadoff position but provides some pop, holding an ISO of 0.158 over the last week and elevating the ball in 50% of at-bats where he put the ball in play.

Saying Joey Votto is out of the Reds lineup tonight is almost like saying the Reds offense is sitting tonight. It was already a nice spot for Alex Reyes in his second start. He's brought some control issues from the minors, walking four in his first start and 14.6% of batters overall, but he's also struck out 17 of 55 batters faced in the majors with his velocity remaining above 96 mph on average in that start and those are the things that sped him through the system. Only 20% of his contact has been hard and he threw 89 pitches last time out, so we're less concerned about a pitch count here at a cost still below $6.5K. The Reds have some power at home, but again, a lot of that is Votto and they have just a 89 wRC+ vs RHP with him (and Bruce for most the year). A good spot just got better for a pitcher with immense upside. He has the potential to provide great value on FanDuel ($5.2K). One interesting bat on the Cincinnati end is Scott Schebler (95 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who moves up a spot in the order with Votto out, costs just $3.5K on DraftKings and has a 221 wRC+ with a 50 Hard% over the last week.