Amir Garrett Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Amir Garrett (90.1 mph), Ian Kennedy (89.9 mph), and Ricky Nolasco (89.9 mph) have the highest average exit velocities on the board tonight. Kennedy (11.4%) and Jake Thompson (11%) have the only double digit Barrels/BBE rates. Garrett (41.8%), Nolasco (40.9%) and Matt Moore (40.2%) have allowed the highest rates of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. Garrett allowed 18 HRs over his last nine starts before being banished to the minors, where he had basically league average peripherals and a 10.1 HR/FB. Two Mets batters tonight have both an above average wRC+ and ISO vs LHP this year. They are Jose Reyes (112 wRC+, .189 ISO) and Travis D'arnaud (150 wRC+, .239 ISO). The latter is a great option at Catcher on FanDuel for just $2.6K. Ian Kennedy multiple HRs in four of last five and has just one strikeout in three of his last four starts. Kansas City is not a power friendly park, but Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Brian Dozier all exceed a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Batters from either side have a 330+ wOBA and 35+ Hard% against Kennedy. Ricky Nolasco's 33 HRs are the third most in the majors. His hard hit rate has been at least 33.3% in six of his last eight starts. Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano each have multiple HRs against him. Jake Thompson is coming off the best start of his career, 6 IP - 1 ER - 7 K in Miami. He allowed five HRs with 5 BBs and 6 Ks in his two previous, one vs Miami. Batters from either side have a .350+ wOBA and 35+ Hard% against him this year. Daniel Murphy (135 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) is the top play from the Nationals, though a top half of the lineup stack could be potent. Matt Moore has allowed a .444 wOBA (34.1 Hard%) to LHBs. The White Sox have just one (Nick Delmonico) in the lineup. RHBs have a 35% hard hit rate against Moore too though. Jose Abreu has smashed LHP this year (187 wRC+, .282 ISO).

Kevin's morning forecast identified five parks where we could see winds blowing out at15 mph or more, potentially leading towards one of the most wind aided nights in recent history for hitters. Wrigley Field (center) and Cincinnati (left) are the big ones, where wind speeds could reach 30 mph. The Cubs bats may be obvious. They have the highest implied run line on the slate (5.98), but Amir Garrett could be the biggest victim as a left-handed starter in Cincinnati. The Pittsburgh lineup doesn't have a lot of power, but is predominantly RH. On the other side, at least Gerrit Cole has kept RHBs grounded 50% of the time the last several years. Kansas City, St Louis and Atlanta all have winds around 15 mph blowing out to right. None are particularly power friendly parks, though we don't know how the new Atlanta park will play (there are rumors it may be LH power friendly). There are certainly matchups where players can take advantage of LH power bats in two of these games. Aside from Moustakas (vs Covey), Conforto and Bruce immediately come to mind against a fly ball prone RHP (Teheran), who has struggled with LHBs (.357 wOBA, 33 HRs allowed since 2015).

Coors hitters combine for the six most highly projected ownership rates on FanDuel tonight, along with the top four on DraftKings. Luckily, there appear to be many third base pivots on either site with Joey Gallo, Mike Moustakas, Justin Turner and Miguel Sano all being projected at 10% or less on either site, while Mike Napoli and Anthony Rizzo may get the same treatment at first base. With several bats worth paying up for tonight and not a clear cut elite mound option tonight, players are expected to pay down for pitching tonight. There are some lower-priced arms that have shown some strikeout potential this month (Vargas, Garrett, Chavez). Premium subscribers can check out ownership projections for all players on our Projected Ownership page.

While three Coors bats (Arenado, T.Turner, Blackmon) lead overall projections among hitters, there are plenty of 3B pivots for those who don't want to pay an enormous price for Arenado. Jake Lamb (134 wRC+, 285 ISO vs RHP) projects within a point on either site, while also being one of the top projected values on DraftKings (2.36 Pt/$/K) alongside teammate David Peralta (132 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is also the only bat on FanDuel projected for more than 4.0 Pt/$/K. Tonight may also be a night to pay down for pitching (Jesse Chavez 5.01 Pt/$/K on FanDuel, Amir Garrett 3.24 Pt/$/K) with the top priced pitchers having either weather (Archer) or velocity (Greinke) issues tonight.

There are four pitchers on today's board with a swinging strike rate above 12% and a strikeout rate of at least 25%. Chris Archer (25.5 K%, 12.6 SwStr%) is the name everyone expects to see and he might be the top pitcher on the slate if weather cooperates tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu (25 K%, 12.4 SwStr%) is a bit of a surprise because he's missed the last two seasons due to injury and he's being pummeled on contact (14.3 Barrels/BBE, six HRs already). The other two are two of 2017's early breakout stars. Amir Garrett (28.4 K%, 12.9 SwStr%) was a middling prospect coming into the season, but the secondary pitches have played up more than expected. As an added bonus, he faces an offense that has struck out in 30.2% of PAs vs LHP so far and sits atop the RotoGrinder's K Predictor tonight (7.8). The Brewers also have tremendous power from the right-side (39.1 Hard%, 26.7 HR/FB vs LHP), adding some risk. The real shock here is the transformation of Jason Vargas into Rich Hill. He leads the slate with a 31.1 K% and 13.4 SwStr% after missing most of the last two seasons. Vargas faces a White Sox lineup that has been competent against LHP (114 wRC+), but have a team-wide 28.2 K% and 49 wRC+ over the last week. One more affordable arm for Coors stackers to look at tonight is Jesse Chavez, who has returned to starting with 21.1 K% and 11.3 SwStr%. He faces a Toronto offense down a couple of bats with just a 74 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP in a big park, while sitting fifth in projected strikeouts tonight (5.18).

Not only is the red hot Trey Mancini (508 wRC+, 4 HRs) back in the lineup, but he's leading off for the Orioles in Cincinnati tonight. Surprisingly, the Orioles have found a way to jam Chris Davis (106 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Mark Trumbo (94 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP since 2015) into an NL park lineup as well. There are several implications here. If players are actually risk embracing enough to choose Ubaldo Jimenez tonight, the defense may be just as challenging as the walks tonight. And while Mancini is at a low enough price with the potential expectation of perhaps an extra PA in the leadoff spot, Cincinnati has been aggressive in the usage of multi-inning weapons Lorenzen and Iglesias, using them as early as the third inning this season. In a close game, rookie Amir Garrett may not get a chance to work through any troubles, forcing the Baltimore lineup to face tougher RHP potentially earlier than you might expect.